NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
2003121200 to 2003121600
FXUS61 KALY 120240
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
940 PM EST THU DEC 11 2003
WORKZONES OUT.
.DISC...STILL MOPPING UP AFTER OUR MINOR FLOOD EVENT. BIGGEST
PROBLEMS WERE ON THE HOUSATONIC AND SCHOHARIE BASINS...WERE FLWS
STILL EXIST. WE ARE LEFT WITH A NORTH SOUTH BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...TO THE EAST OF ALBANY...WHICH
IS THANKFULLY SLOWLY FALLING APART. WE CAN ENJOY A BRIEF BREAK IN
THE ACTION BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLIES. KTYX RADAR INDICATES
SOME SNOW PLUMES BEGINNING TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOOKS AS IF
BANDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES LATER
TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THE WIND
ENVIRONMENT IS SHEARED AND THE AREA IS UNDERGOING STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION AT THE MOMENT. BOTH THE SHEAR AND DOWNWARD MOTION SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH TIME. WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EVENT.
WILL LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS. HAD A REPORT UP TO 44 KTS AT
KALB AND 49KTS ALONG THE ELEVATED TERRAIN IN GLEN, MONTGOMERY
COUNTY. GOOD PRESSURE FALLS AND A STEEP PRESSURE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RELAX.
UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS AND WIND
FIELDS LOOK GOOD.
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. EAGERLY AWAITING NEW DATA TO SEE IF OUR
SECOND SNOWSTORM IS STILL AS MUCH AS A THREAT BY LATE SUNDAY.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...AN AWW WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR KALB FOR 40 KT
WIND GUSTS. MIGHT HAVE TO REISSUE IT BY 11 PM. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AT ALBANY FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW AND REMAIN MAINLY WNW. ONCE WE
GET ANY REMAINING LOW CLOUDS OUT OF HERE BY MIDNIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW...DESPITE OCCASIONAL
CEILINGS (AROUND 3500 FEET) FORECASTED AT BOTH KALB AND KGFL ON
FRIDAY.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...SEE ALBFLWALY FOR OUR FLOODING PROBLEMS.
NO MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS FORECAST TONIGHT. DRY AND WINDY
TOMORROW...SO THE RUNOFF (WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW MELT) WILL SLOW
DOWN. DRY AND COLD FOR SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM LOOKS TO BE IN THE
FORM OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR US AND SHOULD POSE NO IMMEDIATE
PROBLEMS.
.ALY...A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 500 AM FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
_____________________________________________________________________
************PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)*********************
.DISCUSSION...FFA EXPIRED. SEVERAL HYDRO PROBLEMS LINGER. ISSUED
WIND ADVISORY. ISOLATED 45-50 MPH BEING REPORTED AND MORE
WIDESPREAD 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS OBSERVED TO SOUTH. 925 MB WIND 50
KT AT KALY. CORE OF STRONG H8 WINDS WORKING NORTHWARD TOWARD AREA.
PREV AFD.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS (AND LONGER
IF WE ARE TO PLACE CREDENCE IN LONG RANGE GFS).
FIRST STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND. AS IT PULLS AWAY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH. BY NOON DRY SLOT ALREADY PUSHING INTO SOUTH PORTION OF
REGION. RATHER COLD AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LEFTOVER RAIN MAY END AS A LITTLE SNOW BUT MOISTURE PULLING
OUT QUICKLY SO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION. FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 600 PM AND EXTENSION NOT ANTICIPATED.
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN WAKE OF STORM. WIND GUSTS IN ZFP TO
40 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME BASED ON COLLABORATION GRIDS WON'T ISSUE WIND ADVISORY.
WORK OF GRADIENT PAST BY THURSDAY MID MORNING.
ON FRIDAY UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERS TONIGHT TO NEAR
5K FT. IT ONLY RISES SLIGHTLY FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD PRECLUDE HEAVY
AMOUNTS BUT WILL INCLUDE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HIGHER POPS IN
NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
SYSTEM #2 SETTING UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND ITS
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY POTENT ONE. THE GFS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF INTENSITY AND TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TYPE AN IMPORTANT ISSUE. 06Z ALB MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WARM LAYER ABOUT 8 K FT INDICATING SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET
FOR A DECENT PART OF THE STORM. 12Z SOUNDINGS SIMILAR. PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT A CHANGE TO JUST RAIN SOUTHEAST PORTION. VERY
TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT SO A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERROR. WILL BE GENERAL
AT THIS TIME WITH SNOW NORTHWEST...SNOW AND SLEET CENTRAL...AND SNOW
SLEET AND RAIN SOUTHEAST. NO OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.
84 HR ETA LOOKS ON WARM SIDE.
SYSTEM #3: GFS NOT REAL CONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND TRACK. 06Z
FASTER AND COLDER THAN 00Z OR 12Z. WILL EMPHASIZE PRECIP WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR TO IFR ACROSS AREA. RAIN
MOVING NORTHWARD...DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-WNW MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR THIS
EVENING WHEN MIXING OCCURS. COLD AIR RUSHES IN ON THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KT AT TAFS SITES WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT WITH WINDS BEGIN TO
DIE DOWN FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA (CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS).
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN ABOUT OVER ALTHOUGH SOME CREEKS/RIVERS STILL RISING.
LOCAL PROBLEMS HANDLED IN STATEMENTS TO THIS POINT. FLOOD WATCH
WILL RUN UNTIL 6 PM. BOICEVILLE 2.30 HEAVIEST WE'VE SEEN SO FAR.
RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD QUICKLY STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH END OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND COLDER WEATHER.
.ALY...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ALL ZONES.
$$
FXUS61 KALY 120927
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.DISC...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TODAY.
OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM WILL TAKE A RUN AT US SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
UNLIKE LAST WEEKENDS EVENT WHERE THE MAIN PROBLEM 3 DAYS OUT WAS THE
FLIP-FLOPPING OF THE MODELS ON WHETHER SNOW WOULD OR WOULD NOT MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS TIME WILL BE HOW
MUCH AND HOW FAR NORTH MIXED PCPN OCCURS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD
WITH EACH RUN...WITH MILDER AIR THUS ABLE TO MAKE IT FURTHER NORTH.
THIS WESTWARD SHIFT MAKES SENSE SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS
WELL WEST OF WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR.
EVEN THOUGH MODELS SHOW A WARMING TREND WITH EACH RUN...LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO
SLEET AND FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA RATHER THAN RAIN.
06Z ETA HAS JUST COME IN AND IT CONTINUES THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT INDICATES MIXED PCPN COULD AFFECT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST ZONES AT SOME POINT
DURING THIS STORM. GRIDDED FORECASTS ARE BASED ON 00Z RUNS...AND
HAVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE 06Z ETA RUN.
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY CEILINGS HAVE RISEN TO VFR LEVELS IN ERN NY. EXPECT THAT
TREND TO CONTINUE IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRISK
W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WILL LET THE AWW FOR KALB EXPIRE AT 09Z.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN SLIGHTLY...SO EXPECTING GUSTS TO
FALL BELOW 40KT CRITERIA AROUND THAT TIME. EXPECT 15 TO 25KT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO WRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL NY.
CEILINGS IN THE EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY DROP BRIEFLY DOWN
TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...FLOODING FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN IS EASING.
SEE LATEST ALBFLSALY STATEMENTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.
.ALY...FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE CREEK
HOUSATONIC RIVER.
MAGLARAS
$$
FXUS61 KALY 121740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVED CLOUD COVER AND LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS. TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK. EXPECT TO ISSUE WINTER STORM
WATCH WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
$$
SND
FXUS61 KALY 122026
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.DISC...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CATSKILLS. KSYR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FETCH ALSO FAVORABLE UNTIL LATE MORNING
TOMORROW THEN BECOMES MORE NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP CHC-LKLY POPS FOR
CURRENT SNOW AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER AREA. MODELS SHOWING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT STORM MOVES IN. LOOKING
LIKE CLASSIC CLEAR ALL NIGHT...CLOUD UP AT SUNRISE...LOCK COLD AIR
IN BEFORE STORM SCENARIO.
ETA/AVN MOVE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP EAST COAST SUN/MON. THIS
STORM PROGGED TO BE DEEPER...STRONGER AND WETTER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
STORM. HOWEVER...MODELS WANT TO WRAP WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST PART OF
MY CWA WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR MIX ACROSS
SOUTHEAST. MODELS PREDICT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS BEFORE CHANGEOVER
SO WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS SUN/NOON THROUGH MON/NOON.
NORTHWESTERN AREAS PROGGED TO SEE ALL SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER.
QUIET TUESDAY...WET AGAIN WED/THU...WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN IF WE DO HAVE DEEP SNOW COVER. DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN...
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT SURFACE. STILL HAVE SHORT WAVE/TROF TO
SWING THROUGH NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WILL DO SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR THE BANDS ARE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS SATURDAY. HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN LOWERING SATURDAY NIGHT.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...FLOODING FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN ABOUT DONE.
HIGH WATER AROUND UTICA NY ALONG MOHAWK AND IN LOWER HOUSATONIC IN
CT. SMALL STREAMS WILL RECEDE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. RISES CONTINUE ON
LOWER MAIN STEM RIVERS AS YESTERDAYS RAIN MAKES ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WATCH ENTIRE CWA.
$$
SND
FXUS61 KALY 130253
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
951 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
DISC...LATEST RADAR PIC SHOWING DECENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS.
PREV AFD
.DISC...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND CATSKILLS. KSYR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FETCH ALSO FAVORABLE UNTIL LATE MORNING
TOMORROW THEN BECOMES MORE NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP CHC-LKLY POPS FOR
CURRENT SNOW AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THINGS QUIET DOWN TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER AREA. MODELS SHOWING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT STORM MOVES IN. LOOKING
LIKE CLASSIC CLEAR ALL NIGHT...CLOUD UP AT SUNRISE...LOCK COLD AIR
IN BEFORE STORM SCENARIO.
ETA/AVN MOVE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP EAST COAST SUN/MON. THIS
STORM PROGGED TO BE DEEPER...STRONGER AND WETTER THAN LAST WEEKENDS
STORM. HOWEVER...MODELS WANT TO WRAP WARM AIR INTO SOUTHEAST PART OF
MY CWA WHICH WOULD CAUSE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR MIX ACROSS
SOUTHEAST. MODELS PREDICT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS BEFORE CHANGEOVER
SO WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS SUN/NOON THROUGH MON/NOON.
NORTHWESTERN AREAS PROGGED TO SEE ALL SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER.
QUIET TUESDAY...WET AGAIN WED/THU...WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS
AGAIN IF WE DO HAVE DEEP SNOW COVER. DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN...
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT SURFACE. STILL HAVE SHORT WAVE/TROF TO
SWING THROUGH NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND
NORTHERN CATSKILLS AND WILL DO SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IN
AND NEAR THE BANDS ARE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS SATURDAY. HIGH
LEVELS CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THEN LOWERING SATURDAY NIGHT.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...FLOODING FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN ABOUT DONE.
HIGH WATER AROUND UTICA NY ALONG MOHAWK AND IN LOWER HOUSATONIC IN
CT. SMALL STREAMS WILL RECEDE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. RISES CONTINUE ON
LOWER MAIN STEM RIVERS AS YESTERDAYS RAIN MAKES ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WATCH ENTIRE CWA.
$$
FXUS61 KALY 130541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1241 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING BY DAYBREAK. THE AIR
MASS MOVING OVER THE REGION IS MODERATELY COLD, AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS OVER THE BULK OF
THE REGION THAT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S. THAT MATCHES FRIDAY'S ZONE FORECAST VERY WELL, AND NOT CHANGES
ARE ANTICIPATED. THE WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AT 10 TO
15 MILES AN HOUR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. EVEN SO
HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF THE DEVELOPING STORM TO THE SOUTH. SO, CIRRUS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH
TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR LOWEST POTENTIAL
VALUES. THE ETA MODEL GUIDANCE IS LOWEST, AND HAS SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. IT MAY BE PRUDENT TO LOWER
THE VALUES IN FRIDAY'S ZONES SLIGHTLY, ALTHOUGH THE CAVEAT IS THE
THICKENING CIRRUS AND THE FACT THAT SNOW COVER TOOK A BEATING IN THE
LAST STORM. WE'LL PROBABLY STAY CLOSE TO THE VALUES THAT WERE
FORECAST IN FRIDAY'S ZONES. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE AREA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
ON THE LATEST RUN, THE NESTED GRID MODEL IS SLOWER THAN OTHER
MODELS. IT BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ETA AND MESOSCALE ETA MODELS
BRING THE LOW FURTHEST NORTH, THE THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AT THIS TIME. THE CANADIAN MODELS AND THE AVIATION ARE NOT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH AS THE ETA, BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NESTED
GRID. THE NESTED GRID HAS VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER
ALBANY'S COUNTY WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE ETA, CANADIAN
MODELS, AND AVIATION ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST HALF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA, WITH ETA HAVING THE
MOST PRECIPITATION, ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH.
THE ETA MODELS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MESOSCALE MODEL ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS WERE EXAMINED,
AND THIS MODEL, WHICH AS MENTIONED WAS WARMEST, HAD A THIN LAYER OF
ABOVE FREEZING AIR NEAR 5 OR 6 THOUSAND FEET SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE WARM LAYER WAS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER AND
THICKER AT POUGHKEEPSIE, BUT WAS ABSENT THE THE WEST AND NORTH OF
ALBANY. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY TO BE ENTIRELY SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY, WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH. AS MENTIONED, THE ETA WAS
WARMEST, MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST ALL SNOW IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CUTTING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION, THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST OR NORTH, AND IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ANYWHERE IN THE AREA. SO LIQUID RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER TIER OF ZONES SHOULD THE MESOSCALE ETA MODEL BE ACCURATE.
HOWEVER, WITH OTHER MODELS COLDER, IT IS BELIEVED THAT SLEET AND
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FORM OF PRECIPITATION.
THE AVIATION HAS A GOOD DUMP OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND
THE STORM TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS ON THE ORDER OF AN AVERAGE OF
AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE ABOUT 2 FEET OF SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE ONLY SNOW. THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE VARIABLE AMOUNTS, PROBABLY WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. EVEN THE MESOSCALE ETA MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ON SUNDAY, FOR ABOUT 7 OR 8
INCHES TO ACCUMULATE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.
THUS, ON SNOW TOTALS ALONE, A WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD VERIFY. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT, AND LITTLE WOULD BE
GAINED FROM GOING TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT. WE BELIEVE IT IS
PRUDENT TO WAIT ANOTHER MODEL FORECAST RUN BEFORE ISSUING A
WARNING. AT THIS POINT, IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL
BE THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT, WHICH WOULD
DETERMINE SNOW AMOUNTS. PERHAPS ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS WOULD
HELP REFINE THIS PROBLEM.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WELL BRING SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY, AND INDICATE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY EVENING, IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA, WITH LESS SNOW TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE FORECAST IN THE 20S AS
INDICATED IN FRIDAY'S ZONE. THE 32 FORECAST FOR POUGHKEEPSIE FROM
THE AVIATION GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO HIGH AS THICK CLOUDINESS AND SNOW
WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND IS LIKELY.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW, SLEET, AND A POSSIBLE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE FORECAST SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY (FREEZING RAIN ONLY FOR THE
LOWER TIER OF ZONES). SNOW WILL BE FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 20S, ALTHOUGH SOME READINGS IN THE TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ETA WINDS THE STORM DOWN RATHER QUICKLY, AND IT
APPEARS THAT BASED ON THIS MODEL THERE WOULD BE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLD ADVECTION AFTER HOUR 6 UNIVERSAL
COORDINATION TIME MONDAY IN THE SOUTH, AND THE DRIER AIR WORKS IN
THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. OTHER MODEL
FORECAST ARE INDICATING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOVEMENT, SO IT IS WINTER
STORM WATCH WITH EXTENDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOKS FINE FOR THE
MOMENT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 20S.
A SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND FRIDAY'S
ZONES HAD INDICATED DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER CYCLONE-COMPLEX BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL AND AVIATION BRING SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM WITH HEAVY
MIXED-TYPE PRECIPITATION; POSSIBLY ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE AVIATION AND THE CANADIAN
ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE EUROPEAN, BUT THE
LATTER DOES SHOW A STRONG SYSTEM BY THURSDAY MORNING. FRIDAY'S ZONE
FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE IN ERROR FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS IT
IS INDICATING ONLY RAIN. WE'LL PROBABLY MODIFY THAT BY MENTIONING
SOME SNOW AS WELL.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS, AND NORTHERN CATSKILLS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW BANDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TODAY
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH VFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE BELOW
FLOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TODAY. WITH THE NEXT STORM LIKELY
TO BRING MAINLY FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION TYPES, NO
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS, SO NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WATCH ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NOON THROUGH MONDAY NOON.
HEMMERICH
FXUS61 KALY 131936
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
235 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM. 24-HOUR EVENT 18Z/SUN
TO 18Z/MON. UPPER SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 850 LOW
CUTTING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 500 LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW
INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS IT CROSS LONG
ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER WITH SYSTEM THAN OTHER
MODELS. DESPITE BEING SO STRONG GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER
TROF BY 48 HOURS. GFS LOOKS BETTER INITIALLY WITH SYSTEM UNTIL ABOUT
42 HOURS WHEN IT BECOMES TOO STRONG THEN WEAKER STRENGTH OF ETA
APPEARS BETTER LIFTING LOW ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST.
ETA A BIT WARMER THAN GFS. EVEN GFS INDICATES MIXING SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. VERTICAL MOTION IS
IMPRESSIVE AND QPF HIGH SO DYNAMICALLY COOLING WILL OCCUR SHOULD
OVERCOME SOME OF THE WARMER. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD REGION QUICKLY
SUNDAY AM INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BECOMES HEAVY BY
EVENING THEN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG VERTICAL
MOTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. QPF AMOUNTS IMPRESSIVE GENERALLY 1
1/2 TO 2 INCHES. SNOW RATIO WILL BE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WHERE WARMER AIR PENETRATES HOWEVER NOT
ENOUGH TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. WILL ISSUE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE COUNTING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN FEET.
STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN IN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED...GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TUESDAY. THEN NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SYSTEM HEADS FOR GREAT LAKES REGION HOWEVER UPPER TROF GOES
NEGATIVE AND CUTS OFF AND RAPID CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION MOVES
IN EARLY ENOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT WITH A MIX THEN SHOULD WARM
UP ENOUGH FOR RAIN HOWEVER ONCE COASTAL LOW PASSES TO EAST AND DRAWS
COLDER AIR BACK INTO REGION MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST. INCREASED TO
POPS TO LIKELY FOR EVENT.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH OVR RGN TDA WILL DRIFT EWD. LOW NR
NEW ORLEANS THIS AFTN WILL LIFT NEWD TO CAROLINA CST ERY SUN AFTN
AND THEN NWD TO PSN SEWD NYC LT SUN. VFR CONDS WILL CONT THRU ABT
18Z SUN WITH CONDS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY THRAFTR.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH BUT ARE
BELOW FLOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. NO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF IS
EXPECTED WITH NEXT SYSTEM SNOW ACROSS MOST OF AREA WITH SOME MIXED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION. SNOWPACK SHOULD HANDLE MID WEEK SYSTEM.
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH RAIN FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN BACK TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NOON THROUGH MONDAY
NOON.
$$
FXUS61 KALY 140543
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
DISCUSSION...
FOR THOSE WHO LIKE ACTIVE WEATHER, THESE ARE GOOD TIMES, INDEED. NO
SOONER DO WE PUT THE IMPENDING "BLOCKBUSTER" TO BED, WHEN ANOTHER
STRONG CYCLONE ROARS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. WHILE THE FIRST STORM PROMISES MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET, THE
SECOND LOOKS LIKE RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, AT
LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER, A HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST, THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THAT NEXT STORM IS PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
IT'S DEPTH WHICH IS BELOW 970 MILLIBARS ACCORDING THE THE AVIATION
MODEL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT, THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND REALLY GETS CRANKING ON THE AVIATION, WITH SPEED IN EXCESS OF
50 KNOTS FORECAST ONLY A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE
MAKING BE LOOKING AT A WIND ADVISORY, OR MAYBE WORSE. BUT LETS TAKE
FIRST STORMS FIRST.
THE IMPENDING "BLOCKBUSTER" HAS ONE CAVEAT THAT KEEPS LOOMING. IT'S
A WARMER STORM THAN THE ONE LAST WEEKEND, AS THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN
THIS CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK INLAND OF, OR RIGHT ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST ON SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS. THE ETA, FOR
EXAMPLE, BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE THIS
EVENING, THEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO ABOUT THE CAPE COD CANAL DURING
THE LATTER PORTION OF TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ETA, MAYBE A TAD FURTHER WEST, JUST INLAND OF THE
JERSEY SHORE TO WESTERN LONG ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND TO JUST
NORTH OF BOSTON BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS TRACK ALLOWS ABOVE
FREEZING AIR TO MOVE FURTHER INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THAN THE
PAST WEEKEND'S STORM. FOR THOSE WHO LIKE TO BE CORRECT WHEN THEY
FORECAST 18 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW, IT WAS A BIT DISTURBING TO SEE THE
HOUR 12 UNIVERSAL COORDINATION TIME SATURDAY RUN OF THE CANADIAN
REGIONAL MODEL HAVE A PRECIPITATION TYPE OF RAIN FORECAST FROM ABOUT
20 MILES NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED A TAD COLDER AND
IS NOW FORECASTING THE RAIN/SNOW DIVISION TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AT MIDNIGHT. AND THIS SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE MESOSCALE ETA MODEL IS INDICATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE MESOSCALE ETA MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE
ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES ABOUT
9 OR 10 PM, WITH THE DEPTH AND WARMTH OF THAT LAYER INCREASING
THROUGH SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE AIR ABOVE THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT MAY REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BUT THEN COOLING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY. WHAT THIS SUGGESTS IS THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND A MORE EXTENSIVE PERIOD
OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, OR EVEN RAIN (AVIATION SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AT POUGHKEEPSIE ARE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING)
TONIGHT. THE LOWER RESOLUTION FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF THE AVIATION
MODEL SUGGEST ABOVE FREEZING AIR IN THE LOWER TIER OF ZONES FROM THE
SURFACE TO 7500 FEET AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, WHERE THE MESOSCALE ETA WAS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT, THE AVIATION FORECASTS A TEMPERATURE BELOW
FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE UPWARDS AT THAT TIME. BOTTOM LINE, WITH
THE AVIATION COMING UP WITH ABOUT AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS STORM IN THE AREA FROM THE HUDSON
VALLEY EASTWARD, WE ARE LIKELY TO GET A VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL IN
LOCATIONS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS ENTIRELY SNOW.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE LESS SNOW DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SATURDAY'S ZONE FORECAST FOR THE REGION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT, DID HAVE MIXED PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT, BUT NO
MENTION OF RAIN. WE MAY ADD SOME RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA
ON THE NEXT RELEASE OF THE ZONE FORECAST, BUT WILL KEEP IT PRIMARILY
SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST. THE UPPER LIMITS OF
THE STORM'S TOTAL SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 20 INCHES MENTIONED IN
SATURDAY'S ZONE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES, SEEMS A BIT
EXCESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT WOULD SEEM THAT
TO GET THIS MUCH SNOW, THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD HAVE TO
REMAIN ENTIRELY SNOW, AND THAT LOOKS LIKE A LONG SHOT GIVEN THE
TRACK AND FORECAST VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THAT AREA. WE
MAY CUT BACK ON THE TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ZONES, BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP AMOUNTS ABOUT AS FORECAST IN SATURDAY'S
ZONES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
WE'LL BE GETTING OFF TO A COLD START THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING RAPIDLY TODAY, THEN COMES THE SNOW. AND WITH A NORTHEAST
SURFACE WIND LIKELY, WE PREFER THE LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE OF THE NESTED GRID AND AVIATION. THE ETA SEEMS TOO HIGH.
THE VALUES IN SATURDAY'S FORECAST SEEM FINE, AND WE LIKELY WON'T BE
MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE. FOR TONIGHT, AS INDICATED ABOVE, WE
MAY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS WILL REQUIRE
BRINGING THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE UP A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE REGION, FROM WHAT WAS INDICATED IN SATURDAY'S ZONE FORECAST.
ALL MODELS, BUT PARTICULARLY THE ETA AND CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL
SUGGEST THAT IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE STORM WILL WIND DOWN
QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE CANADIAN REGIONAL HAVE
ALMOST NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AFTER HOUR 12 UNIVERSAL
COORDINATION TIME MONDAY. THE AVIATION AND CANADIAN GLOBAL HANG
ONTO THE PRECIPITATION A BIT LONGER, AND FORECAST POSSIBLY ANOTHER
QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH
THE BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW AND CONSIDERING THE OROGRAPHY AND
CLIMATOLOGY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE COASTAL STORMS, IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MONDAY, WITH SEVERAL MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY PRETTY CONSISTENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR MONDAY, AND ARE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY'S ZONE FORECAST. WE'LL BE GOING FOR VALUES MAINLY FROM THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MILE AN HOUR WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MILE AN HOUR SEEM REASONABLE FOR MONDAY.
THE EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS INDICATED IN SATURDAY'S ZONES SEEMS
OVERDONE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. WE'LL LIKELY BE CUTTING BACK ON THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WE MAY MENTION SOME FLURRIES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR FOR TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST LIKELY. THEN THAT NEXT STORM BEGINS TO AFFECT US IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE MODELS GENERALLY
SUPPORTS THE FORECAST THAT WAS ISSUED SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE MAY BE
AN ISSUE WITH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING RAIN SHOWERS, NOT SNOW
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DAY CREW SATURDAY MADE A GOOD
MOVE IN RAISING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LIKELY PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY SEEM IN ORDER.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING, BUT
THE ONSET OF SNOW WELL BRING CONDITIONS QUICKLY LOWERING TO IFR MID
TO LATE MORNING SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...RIVERS WILL BE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE IMPENDING SNOW STORM SHOULD PUT DOWN A DEEP AND
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THEN, WE'LL HAVE MAINLY BELOW FREEZING WEATHER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
IN THE CARDS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE SNOW SHOULD ABSORB A LOT
OF THE RUNOFF, AND THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK TRANSITION TO COLDER
WEATHER AS THE MIDWEEK STORM INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY AND MOVES OFF NEW
ENGLAND DRAWING BELOW FREEZING AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE
EVEN THE MIDWEEK FLOOD THREAT IS MINIMAL.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
HEMMERICH
FXUS61 KALY 142058
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CURRENT SYSTEM WITH TRACK AND
THERMAL STRUCTURE. SYSTEM TAPS INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING WARMER. 850 LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR WRAPS IN ACROSS LOWER 1/3 TO 1/2 OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO CUT TONIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AS EXPECT
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE. ALL SNOW ALB NORTH WITH MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
INBETWEEN WITH CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL END WITH SNOW ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO EAST FILTERING COLDER AIR BACK IN.
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BULK OF
STORM THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM WINDS DOWN MONDAY AM.
EXTENDED...
GET BRIEF BREAK IN ACTION WHEN RIDGE VISITS REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
THEN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
BUT WILL WARM UP FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW HEADS NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING LOW SRN END OF DELMARVA AT 21Z WILL LIFT NEWD TO S LONG
ISLAND ARND 06Z TNGT AND INTO GLF ME BY 12Z MON. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 09Z. SNOW MAY CHG TO SLEET/FRZG RAIN FOR
AWHILE OVRNGT SERN NY.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
MID WEEK BARES WATCHING AS WE WARM UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. SNOW COVER SHOULD
ABSORB A LOT OF RUNOFF PLUS COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN BEHIND
SYSTEM.
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
$$
FXUS61 KALY 150230
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
UPDATED PACKAGE. CHANGE OVER TO SLEET HERE AT OFFICE AND POINTS JUST
TO NORTH...CLIFTON PARK. DUE TO SLEET HAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
*********PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3:45 PM*******************
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CURRENT SYSTEM WITH TRACK AND
THERMAL STRUCTURE. SYSTEM TAPS INTO ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING WARMER. 850 LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY TONIGHT. WARM AIR WRAPS IN ACROSS LOWER 1/3 TO 1/2 OF
FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO CUT TONIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AS EXPECT
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTION WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE. ALL SNOW ALB NORTH WITH MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET
INBETWEEN WITH CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL END WITH SNOW ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO EAST FILTERING COLDER AIR BACK IN.
WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BULK OF
STORM THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM WINDS DOWN MONDAY AM.
EXTENDED...
GET BRIEF BREAK IN ACTION WHEN RIDGE VISITS REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
THEN RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
BUT WILL WARM UP FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW HEADS NORTHWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING LOW SRN END OF DELMARVA AT 21Z WILL LIFT NEWD TO S LONG
ISLAND ARND 06Z TNGT AND INTO GLF ME BY 12Z MON. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 09Z. SNOW MAY CHG TO SLEET/FRZG RAIN FOR
AWHILE OVRNGT SERN NY.
.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
MID WEEK BARES WATCHING AS WE WARM UP AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM AND
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. SNOW COVER SHOULD
ABSORB A LOT OF RUNOFF PLUS COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK IN BEHIND
SYSTEM.
**************************************************************
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
$$
FXUS61 KALY 150552
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THAT THE COASTAL STORM
WAS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION THE BALANCE OF THE DARK HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK,
THERE MAY BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES FROM THE STORM'S RESIDUAL
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ACTING UPON THE OROGRAPHY OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN TO SEVERAL MILLIBARS BELOW THE 990 MILLIBAR LEVEL DURING
THE DAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES OCCLUSION THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR TODAY, WITH
THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL SUGGESTING WIND NEAR 60 KNOTS AROUND 5
OR 6 THOUSAND FEET FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS ACROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MESOSCALE ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS WIND THAN THE
CANADIAN, BUT STILL SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS RATHER SHALLOW ONLY
EXTENDING 3 OR 4 THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE, AND DOESN'T APPEAR
TO QUITE BE A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. WE'LL PROBABLY NOT HOIST
THE ADVISORY FLAG AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 47
MILES AN HOUR OVER A WIDE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE MOST ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND THE SUSTAINED WIND IS UNLIKELY TO REACH 35 MILES
AN HOUR.
THE GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 3OS TODAY, MAINLY THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SUNDAY'S ZONE FORECAST HAD VALUES A BIT LOWER
IN THE WESTERN ZONES, AND WE MAY BE BUMPING THE TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY ON THE NEXT FORECAST.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH A
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN
THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER
IN MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, READINGS IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY SHOW THE GREATEST VARIANCE. WE PREFER THE LOWER VALUES OF
THE ETA AND AVIATION GUIDANCE THERE, WHICH WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES. SUNDAY'S ZONE FORECAST HAD READINGS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 IN MOST ZONES, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
FRESH SNOW COVER, LIGHT WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE FOLLOWS ITS LEAD, AND THE GRADIENT WIND STRENGTHENS FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGESTS A
PRETTY MILD DAY, BUT WITH THE SNOW COVER AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
ALBEDO, WE'D EXPECT A LOT OF THE SOLAR INSOLATION TO BE RADIATED
HEAVENWARD. THUS, WE'D TEMPER THE URGE TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURE
MUCH ON TUESDAY, AND WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY,
BUT NOT BY A LOT. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY, WHICH IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. IN ANY CASE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. THE VALUES IN SUNDAY'S ZONES LOOK FINE; HIGHS IN
THE 30S AGAIN.
THE NEXT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT'S GOING TO CRANK PRETTY
GOOD. THE AVIATION, CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THE EUROPEAN ALL INDICATE
THAT A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE ENOUGH MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO REDUCE
THE SNOW COVER CONSIDERABLY. ALSO, THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL CHECKS IN WITH A BIT OVER AN INCH, WHICH WILL ONLY
EXACERBATE THE FLOOD THREAT (SEE HYDROLOGY SEGMENT). THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND THAT MAY EVEN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOIST THE HIGH WIND FLAG SOME TIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE AVIATION FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING 40 TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THAT
MODEL IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. THE DEPTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
962 MILLIBARS ON THE HOUR 12 UNIVERSAL COORDINATION TIME RUN OF THE
AVIATION MODEL. THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THAT DEEP, BUT STILL GETS THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO NEAR 970 MILLIBARS, WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DID NOT
INDICATE AS STRONG A SYSTEM ON ITS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO, BUT THE
LATEST RUN INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM, MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MODELS. THE LOW TRANSLATES QUITE RAPIDLY TOO, AND THIS FAVORS
STRONGER WIND THAT IF IT WAS A SLOW-MOVER.
THE ZONE FORECAST THAT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST
THICKNESS VALUES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHEN THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
ZONES. THE LATEST CLIMATOLOGICAL-STATISTICAL FORECAST FROM THE
AVIATION AND NEST GRID MODELS INDICATES ONLY RAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE MAY MAKE A MODIFICATION HERE ON THE NEXT FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE WESTERN
ZONES BY EARLY THURSDAY LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET, AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE
AVIATION GUIDANCE ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S
ZONE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE BETTER, AS
THE FORECAST SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW IS QUITE BRISK. HOWEVER, IT'S
LIKELY THAT THE MELTING SNOW COVER WILL STEAL SOME OF THE POTENTIAL
HEATING. WE'LL PROBABLY BUMP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY, GOING CLOSE TO THE AVIATION GUIDANCE. IT ALMOST GOES
WITHOUT SAYING THAT WE LIKE THE, "WINDY," THAT THE ZONES HAVE
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT WIND
POTENTIAL.
WE WON'T BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY AS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S ZONES, THEN A MINOR
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THIS IS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S ZONES.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING LOW OVER EASTERN NEW JERSEY WILL LIFT NEWD TO CAPE COD BY
12Z MON. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 12Z. SNOW WILL MIX
WITH SLEET/FRZG RAIN FOR AWHILE SERN NY BUT SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO
ALL SNOW BY 08Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, AND THAT
DAY LOOKS DRY AS INDICATED IN THE ZONES.
.HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
RIVERS GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING AT THIS TIME. HOUSATONIC REMAINS
HIGH IN CONNECTICUT. SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED EARLIER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CWA BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO STAGES EXPECTED
TODAY AS RUNOFF WAS MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP ICE/SNOW FROZEN. NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS WED/THU
STORM AS RAIN IS EXPECTED. MODELS FORECASTING 1+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. ESF MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL LATE WED
INTO THU WITH AFTERNOON PAGKAGE. SD
**************************************************************
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
$$
HEMMERICH
FXUS61 KALY 151425
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
925 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.DISCUSSION...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. WILL LEAVE SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY
...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR LESS. JUST SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ZONES.
MAGLARAS
......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.........................
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THAT THE COASTAL STORM
WAS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND SHOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION THE BALANCE OF THE DARK HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER DAYBREAK,
THERE MAY BE AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES FROM THE STORM'S RESIDUAL
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ACTING UPON THE OROGRAPHY OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE
WILL DEEPEN TO SEVERAL MILLIBARS BELOW THE 990 MILLIBAR LEVEL DURING
THE DAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES OCCLUSION THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY STRONG FOR TODAY, WITH
THE CANADIAN REGIONAL MODEL SUGGESTING WIND NEAR 60 KNOTS AROUND 5
OR 6 THOUSAND FEET FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS ACROSS INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MESOSCALE ETA MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS WIND THAN THE
CANADIAN, BUT STILL SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY. THE DEPTH OF
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS RATHER SHALLOW ONLY
EXTENDING 3 OR 4 THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE, AND DOESN'T APPEAR
TO QUITE BE A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. WE'LL PROBABLY NOT HOIST
THE ADVISORY FLAG AS IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE GUSTS WILL EXCEED 47
MILES AN HOUR OVER A WIDE AREA, EXCEPT FOR THE MOST ELEVATED
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, AND THE SUSTAINED WIND IS UNLIKELY TO REACH 35
MILES AN HOUR.
THE GUIDANCE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 3OS TODAY, MAINLY THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SUNDAY'S ZONE FORECAST HAD VALUES A BIT LOWER
IN THE WESTERN ZONES, AND WE MAY BE BUMPING THE TEMPERATURES UP
SLIGHTLY ON THE NEXT FORECAST.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN QUICKLY LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH A
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKY. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN
THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER
IN MOST LOCATIONS, HOWEVER, READINGS IN THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY SHOW THE GREATEST VARIANCE. WE PREFER THE LOWER VALUES OF
THE ETA AND AVIATION GUIDANCE THERE, WHICH WOULD HAVE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES. SUNDAY'S ZONE FORECAST HAD READINGS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 IN MOST ZONES, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
FRESH SNOW COVER, LIGHT WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT, AND THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
RIDGE FOLLOWS ITS LEAD, AND THE GRADIENT WIND STRENGTHENS FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SUGGESTS A
PRETTY MILD DAY, BUT WITH THE SNOW COVER AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
ALBEDO, WE'D EXPECT A LOT OF THE SOLAR INSOLATION TO BE RADIATED
HEAVENWARD. THUS, WE'D TEMPER THE URGE TO RAISE THE TEMPERATURE
MUCH ON TUESDAY, AND WOULD EXPECT VALUES TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY,
BUT NOT BY A LOT. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY, WHICH IS NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW
COVER. IN ANY CASE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING. THE VALUES IN SUNDAY'S ZONES LOOK FINE; HIGHS IN
THE 30S AGAIN.
THE NEXT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT'S GOING TO CRANK PRETTY
GOOD. THE AVIATION, CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THE EUROPEAN ALL INDICATE
THAT A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE ENOUGH MILD AIR ACROSS THE REGION TO REDUCE
THE SNOW COVER CONSIDERABLY. ALSO, THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS
MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL CHECKS IN WITH A BIT OVER AN INCH, WHICH WILL ONLY
EXACERBATE THE FLOOD THREAT (SEE HYDROLOGY SEGMENT). THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN FOR STRONG SURFACE WIND THAT MAY EVEN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOIST THE HIGH WIND FLAG SOME TIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE AVIATION FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING 40 TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THAT
MODEL IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME. THE DEPTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
962 MILLIBARS ON THE HOUR 12 UNIVERSAL COORDINATION TIME RUN OF THE
AVIATION MODEL. THE LATEST RUN IS NOT THAT DEEP, BUT STILL GETS THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO NEAR 970 MILLIBARS, WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DID NOT
INDICATE AS STRONG A SYSTEM ON ITS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO, BUT THE
LATEST RUN INDICATES A STRONGER SYSTEM, MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MODELS. THE LOW TRANSLATES QUITE RAPIDLY TOO, AND THIS FAVORS
STRONGER WIND THAT IF IT WAS A SLOW-MOVER.
THE ZONE FORECAST THAT WAS ISSUED SUNDAY LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS APPEARS THAT THE FORECAST
THICKNESS VALUES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHEN THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
ZONES. THE LATEST CLIMATOLOGICAL-STATISTICAL FORECAST FROM THE
AVIATION AND NEST GRID MODELS INDICATES ONLY RAIN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. WE MAY MAKE A MODIFICATION HERE ON THE NEXT FORECAST.
HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN THAT IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE WESTERN
ZONES BY EARLY THURSDAY LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET, AND NO CHANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST BY THE
AVIATION GUIDANCE ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S
ZONE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE BETTER, AS
THE FORECAST SOUTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW IS QUITE BRISK. HOWEVER, IT'S
LIKELY THAT THE MELTING SNOW COVER WILL STEAL SOME OF THE POTENTIAL
HEATING. WE'LL PROBABLY BUMP THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR
WEDNESDAY, GOING CLOSE TO THE AVIATION GUIDANCE. IT ALMOST GOES
WITHOUT SAYING THAT WE LIKE THE, "WINDY," THAT THE ZONES HAVE
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT WIND
POTENTIAL.
WE WON'T BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND FRIDAY AS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S ZONES, THEN A MINOR
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHICH MAY BRING A
MINOR ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THIS IS INDICATED IN SUNDAY'S ZONES.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPENING LOW OVER EASTERN NEW JERSEY WILL LIFT NEWD TO CAPE COD BY
12Z MON. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU AT LEAST 12Z. SNOW WILL
MIX WITH SLEET/FRZG RAIN FOR AWHILE SERN NY BUT SHOULD CHANGE BACK
TO ALL SNOW BY 08Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL LIFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY, AND THAT
DAY LOOKS DRY AS INDICATED IN THE ZONES.
.HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
RIVERS GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING AT THIS TIME. HOUSATONIC REMAINS
HIGH IN CONNECTICUT. SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED EARLIER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CWA BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO STAGES EXPECTED
TODAY AS RUNOFF WAS MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP ICE/SNOW FROZEN. NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS WED/THU
STORM AS RAIN IS EXPECTED. MODELS FORECASTING 1+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. ESF MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL LATE WED
INTO THU WITH AFTERNOON PAGKAGE. SD
**************************************************************
.ALY...WINTER STORM WARNING ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
$$
HEMMERICH
FXUS61 KALY 151643
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.DISCUSSION...WILL UPDATE ZONES ONCE AGAIN. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...SO WILL FORECAST JUST SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS...AND SCT FLURRIES SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALSO
TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
MAGLARAS
.HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
RIVERS GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING AT THIS TIME. HOUSATONIC REMAINS
HIGH IN CONNECTICUT. SOME FREEZING RAIN REPORTED EARLIER TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PART OF CWA BUT LITTLE CHANGE TO STAGES EXPECTED
TODAY AS RUNOFF WAS MINIMAL AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP ICE/SNOW FROZEN. NEXT BIG STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS WED/THU
STORM AS RAIN IS EXPECTED. MODELS FORECASTING 1+ INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. ESF MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL LATE WED
INTO THU WITH AFTERNOON PAGKAGE. SD
**************************************************************
.ALY...NONE.
$$
MAGLARAS
FXUS61 KALY 151942
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.DISCUSSION... SECOND MAJOR SNOW STORM (THIRD MAJOR STORM) IN JUST
OVER A WEEK IS NOW DEPARTING. PNSALY ISSUED LATE THIS MORNING WILL
BE FINAL FOR THE STORM. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FLOW TOO
NORTHWESTERLY FOR MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT. H8 FLOW DOES BECOME A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
IN AND INVERSION STRENGTHENS STEADILY. WILL INCLUDE ONLY EVENING
FLURRIES EXTREME WEST PORTION AND IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
HUDSON VALLEY.
NEXT STORM SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS FASTER AND
NOT AS DEEP AS ETA. 00Z CANADIAN MORE ETA-LIKE. WILL LEAN TO GFS
BUT SLOW TIMING DOWN A LITTLE BASED ON ETA. 12Z GFS THICKNESSES
INDICATE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF FIRST PHASE OF STORM WILL BE RAIN. DID
INCLUDE A LITTLE SLEET AT THE START ADIRONDACKS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO WORK BACK INTO WEST PORTION OF CWA.
UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTH COUNTRY AND MAY PRODUCE A DECENT BAND OF
BACKLASH SNOW INTO ADIRONDACKS. IN ADDITION PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT
EVENT LIKELY WITH LAKE SNOWS NOT WINDING DOWN UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. AS
COLD AIR WORKS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT GFS CUTS PRECIPITATION OFF PRETTY
QUICKLY AND THAT MIGHT LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
CWA.
RAIN AND SNOWMELT WEDNESDAY COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. WILL ISSUE SPS TO
COVER WATER AND SNOW PROBLEMS WITH UPCOMING STORM. QPF TOPS 1.5
(GFS)
EXTENDED (FRI NIGHT - MONDAY)...DECENT CLIPPER WILL AFFECT THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT LEFTOVERS SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN MONDAY. GFS SUGGEST A KINDER GENTLER WEATHER
PATTERN POST DAY SEVEN - TIME WILL TELL.
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...LOTS OF STRATOCU LINGERING BUT DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING SE PORTION OF CWA AND CLOUDS DECREASING N AND W OF CWA.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND 00Z WITH ISOLD -SHSN BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS GUSTS TO 35 KT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AND CLOUDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
.HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND SNOWMELT WEDNESDAY COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AND WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES.
.ALY...NONE.
$$
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