NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
2003121200 to 2003121600
FXUS61 KBOX 120247
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
947 PM EST THU DEC 11 2003
...STRONG GALES AND/OR STORMS TO CONTINUE HITTING NEW ENGLAND THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WITH OPTIONS FOR A COMPLEX E USA STORM JUST BEFORE
CHRISTMAS AS THE +PNA TRIES TO BE MORE ASSERTIVE ANMD IT LOOKS MORE
AND MORE THAT THINKING COLDER THAN GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO...
1015 PM SHORT TERM UPDATE STRENGHTENS WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SOME
WORDING ADJUSTMENT OVERNIGHT.
.PATTERN...
MAY BE CAUGHT IN A MISREAD...BUT AM CONTINUING TO THINK COLDER AND
COLDER WITH MORE SNOW/ICE STORMS HERE THIS MONTH (SNOW TO RAIN
COAST). EC CONTS TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER AND CLOSER TO SOME
EARLIER GFS ENS SIGNALS OF THIS WEEK. THESE READS HAVE TO BE WRONG
SOMEWHERE...BECAUSE IF THEY ARE NOT...THE UNFOLDING SRN STREAM
PATTERN SEEMS TO GUIDING US TOWARD A TOP 5 SNOWIEST DEC ON RECORD
HERE IN PORTIONS OF SNE. SO NOT SAYING IT WILL BE TOP 5 BUT THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING AND BLV THERE IS A EREASONABLE CHC OF
THIS OCCURING. THE FIRST TEST TO ADD TO THIS RUN FOR TOP 5 COMES
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN NEXT THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER?
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.OVERNIGHT THRU SAT...
WIND ADVY CONTS BID/CC AND ISLES AND FORESEE A NEED FOR AN EXTENSION
ON ACK INTO FRIDAY AS PULSE CAA ASSTD WITH CFP BECOMES MORE
PERSISTENT FRIDAY WITH GENERAL MDT-STG CAA ALOFT AND INCREASING
TRANSFER DEPTH ABV 900 MB.
REMAINING SNOW FREEZES SOLID BY FRI NIGHT WITH FREEZING TEMPS BRIEFLY
ARRIVING BEFORE DAYBREAK W OF I95 BUT NOT TILL 21Z I95 EWD...HOVERING
ARD 35 FRI MIDDAY THEN PLUNGING FRI NITE.
SAT...WILL BE COLD BUT NICE.
&&
.LONG TERM (00Z SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
12Z GFS ENS CONTINUE COLD AND SIGNS THE COOLING EC IS READY TO TREND
COLDER TOMORROW FOR 12Z MONDAY AS ITS CLEARLY MOVING THE STORM ENE TO
OUR S AND DEEPENING THE 500 FEATURE. RECOMMENDING CAUTION ON
ANYTHING WARMER THAN THE AFTN SCENARIO PAINTED BELOW. THERE WILL
CLEARLY BE COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) AS 850 WIND TURNS SE AND THEN NE
AND WITH A 1040 HIGH LIFTING NE OF BOS...WITH SOO MUCH COLD ARRIVING
HERE THIS WKND OR BEING REINFORCED SATURDAY...DISPLACING THE LOWER
LAYER OF COLD WILL BE DIFFICULT. ALSO QPF FOR THIS EVENT HAS AN
INCREASING CHC OF BEING IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER 24-30 HOURS...
(HPC HAS 2-3")WITH SNOW ACCUMULATING AT HVY RATES OF 1-2"/HR FOR 1
TO 3 HRS IN SNE TO THE MA PIKE...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS NOON SUNDAY...
THIS PER ETA CSI IN STG WAA ZONE.
THEREFORE...SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO NEARLY A DUE EASTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE LAST EVENT...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE IN OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. EXPECT A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW ON THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN COAST...BEFORE A
QUICK CHANGE TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE ONLY A COATING...TO
MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AT THE MOST. FURTHER NORTH ALONG
COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...A FEW
INCHES LOOK TO BE IN ORDER. THIS WILL BE A VERY TOUGH CALL THOUGH...
BECAUSE MODELS SHOW A TON OF ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREFORE...IT COULD BE SNOWING AT 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR SOMEWHERE...AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKES ITS WAY
INLAND. AT THIS TIME...THE INTERIOR SHOULD GET HIT THE HARDEST WITH
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE A DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATION...BEFORE A CHANGE TO ICE...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR WELL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF SHOWING THIS
STORM SYSTEM REALLY INTENSIFYING...SO STRONG WINDS ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET. TIDES WILL NOT BE ASTRONOMICALLY
HIGH AND THIS STORM IS FASTER MOVING...SO AT THIS TIME WOULD NOT SEE
A MAJOR COASTAL FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPLASH
OVER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK.
THIS STORM IS STILL MORE THAN 3 DAYS AWAY...SO THINGS CAN CHANGE.
THIS IS JUST A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE WAY THINGS MAY SETUP.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET DRY SLOTTED
FOR A TIME LATER SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION MAY WRAP BACK
INTO SOME OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY). THOSE
LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR COULD ACTUALLY SEE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.
A RETURN TO MORE CHILLY WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES IN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS WAY OUT...AND TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN SO WILL NOT
GO INTO DETAILS.
ECMWF LOOKS WAY TO FAR N WITH... GFS ENS HAVE A DISTINCT SRN TRACK
AND GIVE THE 12Z/11 ECMWF 500 AND SFC PATTERN FOR DAY 7 LESS THAN 25
PCT CHC OF VERIFYING MORE ACCURATELY THAN THE GFS ENS AND SUSPECT IT
WILL COME WAY SOUTH WITH TIME. THIS EVENT HAS SIGNS OF BEING A MAJOR
PLAYER HERE WITH STORM FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE CW AND THE TRACK IS
STEADILY HEADING E OF PRIOR RUNS. THIS WARM LOOKING PATTERN ALSO HAS
COLDER OPTIONS.
FOLLOWING THIS...THE ECMWF IS RUNNING COLDER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY
WITH ITS 500 MEAN FLOW AND GFS ENS 850 TEMPS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO
-SD.
&&
.AVIATION...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WND OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER CFP THIS EVENING
REMAINING E MA RI REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRI...GALES ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND NARR BAY TO CONTINUE INTO FRI AND OR FRI NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT BOS HARBOR.
SEAS OVER THE OUTER-WATERS SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY...THE COLD AIR AT 850 WILL AFFORD
DECENT TRANSFER RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY OVER THE WARMER SST.
SUNDAY...ENE GALES WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS.
CONDITIONS MAY TEMPORARILY EASE EARLY MON BEFORE BACKSIDE GALES
DEVELOP.
&&
PMORTEM PNS ON WIND POSTED.
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVY OVERNIGHT MAZ022>24.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVY OVERNIGHT RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...EXCEPT SCA BOS HARBOR.
$$
DRAG
BOX FORECAST TEAM:
NEAR TERM...CF
SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM...FRANK
FXUS61 KBOX 120647
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF SUNDAY HAVE TAKEN 3 PERIODS ON THE FRONT END.
WILL LET WIND ADV EXPIRE WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW FCST PACKAGE. BEST
MIXING IS OCCURRING NOW OR WILL OCCUR BY 10Z - THEN BASIC 20-30MPH
WITH G40 THIS MORNING COASTAL AREAS.
AVN MOS GDNC SEEMS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE CAA TO FOLLOW SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WITH THAT HAVE MODIFIED GRID TEMPS TO
REFLECT TREND OF COLDER FWC GDNC. THIS LOWERS TNGT MINS AND SAT MAX
A FEW DEGREES. THIS OF COURSE SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COASTAL DVLPMT
SUN/MON. SEE LONG TERM FOR THE WINTRY DETAILS.
OTHERWISE - MODELS SIM THRU SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS SUBSIDING TODAY AND
MSTLY CLR SKIES TNGT - WITH LOTS OF SS ON SAT BUT WITH ONLY A MODEST
RISE IN TEMPS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
...CONTINUING RISK OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH A POLAR AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEFINITE COLD START SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE TEENS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
WELL INLAND.
THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE GULF STATES...WHERE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE AND ITS CYCLOGENESIS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHEAST.
SOME VERY INTERESTING MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THIS SYTEMS WHICH INCLUDE:
-GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LATER TROF
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MON AND ITS ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PASSING VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
- THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE TIED INTO THE TIMING OF NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE 00Z ETA IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT PHASES THIS ENERGY MUCH EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS RESULTS IN THE ETA HAVING THE UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY SUNDAY...AND TRACKING UP THE COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
GIVEN TRENDS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF...WILL FOLLOW THIS
SOLUTION WHICH LEANS TOWARD LATER TROF AMPLIFICATION WITH SYSTEM
POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK OFFSHORE...VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS (GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND/OR ICE) POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN INTO MON...PROBABLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BDL-ORH-LWM.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO MAINTAIN WITH WARM EASTERLY FLOW. SO
GREATEST RISK OF WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHWEST ZONES.
THUS...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OKX WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
OUTLOOK TO CONVEY THESE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG GULF AND ATLANTIC
CONNECTION. LIQUID QPF OF 1-2 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
.DEC SNOWFALL RECORDS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.AVIATION...
BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH G40 KTS THU 10Z - THEN G30-35KTS
POSSIBLE THRU MIDDAY BEFORE IT RELAXES.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WILL CONTINUE ALL BUT NARR BAY AND BOS HARBOR TDY. EXPECT SCA
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER RING OF WATERS THRU MUCH OF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA/SCA WINDS OFFSHORE WATERS
SAT...DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THEN A STRONG EASTERLY GALE DEVELOPS LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GALE MON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...EXCEPT SCA BOS HARBOR AND NARR
BAY.
$$
BOX FORECAST TEAM:
SHORT TERM...DRV
LONG TERM...NOCERA
FXUS61 KBOX 120648
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
148 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003...CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE TIME
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF SUNDAY HAVE TAKEN 3 PERIODS ON THE FRONT END.
WILL LET WIND ADV EXPIRE WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW FCST PACKAGE. BEST
MIXING IS OCCURRING NOW OR WILL OCCUR BY 10Z - THEN BASIC 20-30MPH
WITH G40 THIS MORNING COASTAL AREAS.
AVN MOS GDNC SEEMS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE CAA TO FOLLOW SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WITH THAT HAVE MODIFIED GRID TEMPS TO
REFLECT TREND OF COLDER FWC GDNC. THIS LOWERS TNGT MINS AND SAT MAX
A FEW DEGREES. THIS OF COURSE SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COASTAL DVLPMT
SUN/MON. SEE LONG TERM FOR THE WINTRY DETAILS.
OTHERWISE - MODELS SIM THRU SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS SUBSIDING TODAY AND
MSTLY CLR SKIES TNGT - WITH LOTS OF SS ON SAT BUT WITH ONLY A MODEST
RISE IN TEMPS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
...CONTINUING RISK OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH A POLAR AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEFINITE COLD START SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE TEENS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
WELL INLAND.
THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE GULF STATES...WHERE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE AND ITS CYCLOGENESIS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHEAST.
SOME VERY INTERESTING MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THIS SYTEMS WHICH INCLUDE:
-GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LATER TROF
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MON AND ITS ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PASSING VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
- THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE TIED INTO THE TIMING OF NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE 00Z ETA IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT PHASES THIS ENERGY MUCH EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS RESULTS IN THE ETA HAVING THE UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY SUNDAY...AND TRACKING UP THE COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
GIVEN TRENDS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF...WILL FOLLOW THIS
SOLUTION WHICH LEANS TOWARD LATER TROF AMPLIFICATION WITH SYSTEM
POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK OFFSHORE...VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS (GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND/OR ICE) POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN INTO MON...PROBABLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BDL-ORH-LWM.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO MAINTAIN WITH WARM EASTERLY FLOW. SO
GREATEST RISK OF WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHWEST ZONES.
THUS...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OKX WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
OUTLOOK TO CONVEY THESE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG GULF AND ATLANTIC
CONNECTION. LIQUID QPF OF 1-2 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
.DEC SNOWFALL RECORDS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.AVIATION...
BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH G40 KTS THU 10Z - THEN G30-35KTS
POSSIBLE THRU MIDDAY BEFORE IT RELAXES.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WILL CONTINUE ALL BUT NARR BAY AND BOS HARBOR TDY. EXPECT SCA
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER RING OF WATERS THRU MUCH OF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA/SCA WINDS OFFSHORE WATERS
SAT...DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THEN A STRONG EASTERLY GALE DEVELOPS LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GALE MON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...EXCEPT SCA BOS HARBOR AND NARR
BAY.
$$
BOX FORECAST TEAM:
SHORT TERM...DRV
LONG TERM...NOCERA
FXUS61 KBOX 120757
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE ON NPW SHORTTERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF SUNDAY HAVE TAKEN 3 PERIODS ON THE FRONT END.
AFTER A LOOK AT OUR LCL WSETA AND THE LATEST RUC - COMBO OF GDNC AND
OBS SUGGEST EXTENDING THE WIND ADV FOR MAZ22>24 AND RI8 THRU ABOUT
11 AM. WILL DROP IT ELSEWHERE WITH THE FCST OF 20-30G45 THIS AM.
AVN MOS GDNC SEEMS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE CAA TO FOLLOW SHORTWAVE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. WITH THAT HAVE MODIFIED GRID TEMPS TO
REFLECT TREND OF COLDER FWC GDNC. THIS LOWERS TNGT MINS AND SAT MAX
A FEW DEGREES. THIS OF COURSE SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COASTAL DVLPMT
SUN/MON. SEE LONG TERM FOR THE WINTRY DETAILS.
OTHERWISE - MODELS SIM THRU SAT WITH GUSTY WNDS SUBSIDING TODAY AND
MSTLY CLR SKIES TNGT - WITH LOTS OF SS ON SAT BUT WITH ONLY A MODEST
RISE IN TEMPS.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
...CONTINUING RISK OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL START WITH A POLAR AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEFINITE COLD START SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE TEENS EARLY SUNDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
WELL INLAND.
THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE GULF STATES...WHERE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE AND ITS CYCLOGENESIS BEGIN TO TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHEAST.
SOME VERY INTERESTING MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
REGARDING THIS SYTEMS WHICH INCLUDE:
-GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LATER TROF
AMPLIFICATION...WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
MON AND ITS ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PASSING VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
- THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE TIED INTO THE TIMING OF NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH. THE 00Z ETA IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT PHASES THIS ENERGY MUCH EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
THIS RESULTS IN THE ETA HAVING THE UPPER TROF BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED BY SUNDAY...AND TRACKING UP THE COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND MON.
GIVEN TRENDS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF...WILL FOLLOW THIS
SOLUTION WHICH LEANS TOWARD LATER TROF AMPLIFICATION WITH SYSTEM
POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON. THIS WOULD
FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK OFFSHORE...VICINITY OF THE BENCHMARK.
THIS TRANSLATES TO WINTER STORM CONDITIONS (GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOW AND/OR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND/OR ICE) POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE SUN INTO MON...PROBABLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM BDL-ORH-LWM.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY...HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO MAINTAIN WITH WARM EASTERLY FLOW. SO
GREATEST RISK OF WINTER STORM CRITERIA WILL BE NORTHWEST ZONES.
THUS...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OKX WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
OUTLOOK TO CONVEY THESE THOUGHTS. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A BIG QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG GULF AND ATLANTIC
CONNECTION. LIQUID QPF OF 1-2 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
.DEC SNOWFALL RECORDS FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.AVIATION...
BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH G40 KTS THU 10Z - THEN G30-35KTS
POSSIBLE THRU MIDDAY BEFORE IT RELAXES.
&&
.MARINE...
GALES WILL CONTINUE ALL BUT NARR BAY AND BOS HARBOR TDY. EXPECT SCA
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER RING OF WATERS THRU MUCH OF
TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA/SCA WINDS OFFSHORE WATERS
SAT...DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING APPROACHES.
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THEN A STRONG EASTERLY GALE DEVELOPS LATE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT AND TRANSITIONS TO A STRONG NORTHERLY GALE MON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WND ADV MAZ022>024 THIS MORNING.
NH...NONE.
RI...WND ADV RIZ008 THIS MORNING.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS...EXCEPT SCA BOS HARBOR AND NARR
BAY.
$$
BOX FORECAST TEAM:
SHORT TERM...DRV
LONG TERM...NOCERA
FXUS61 KBOX 121554
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1049 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM POSSIBLE (50 PCT FOR A FOOT OR
MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ABOUT 45 MILES--WE WANT TO SEE
12Z GFS BUT HAVE LITTLE DOUBT IT WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ETA...
.THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND ADVY EXPIRES SHORTLY. UPDATED WIND PNS POSSIBLE SOON.
MARINE STEPPING SOME GALES DOWN TO STG SCA ADJACENT LAND.
&&
.THE STORM...
ALL S+ AXIS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE MHT-AFN-ORE-PSF LINE BUT VERY
VERY TENTATIVE.
NEW 12Z/12 ETA CK'D THRU 84 HRS AND ITS SHOWING AN 850 LOW DEVELOPING
S OF OUR LAT...IE CXY REGION 00Z MON - A GOOD SIGN FOR A SNOWSTORM
MHT-AFN-ORE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL AS SNOWFALL PRIOR
TO CHG TO RAIN COAST (850 SLY IN WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 1-3"/HR FOR AN
HR OR TWO IN SNE BEFORE ANY CHG TO SLEET/RAIN. ITS VERY EARLY AND WE
WILL DIGEST GFS BEFORE COMMITTING MORE SOLIDLY. WE DO THINK THE ETA
IS TOO WARM BY MONDAY BUT AT LEAST THE 12Z/12 ETA IS 120 M COLDER IN
ITS 500 LOW OVR CEF AT 18Z MON THAN THE 06Z VERSION! NOW TO
INTEGRATE WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVING GFS. 06Z GFS WAS PLENTY IMPRESSIVE
AS YOU ARE ALL AWARE. ALSO PRESUME EVERYONE IS NOTICING -12 8H AIR
FOR E NYS 18Z MONDAY...ALL THIS COLD NOT A SIGN OF THIS IN SOME ETA
EXTENSION MODELS 2 DAYS AGO NOR IN THE GFS ECMWF DATA AS MONITORED ON
A DAILY BASIS FROM THE 12Z/9 CYCLES THRU TODAY.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW...WE DONT BUY IT THAT FAR
W...AT LEAST NOT YET. QPF E MA BY ETA IS EIN EXCESS OF 2".
WE WILL UPDATE THIS PRODUCT IN 1 HR. GRIDDING DAY 7 NOW...WHJICH
ARE AGAIN THINKING COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE 18TH EVENT.
STRONG GALES AND/OR STORMS TO CONTINUE HITTING NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH OPTIONS FOR A COMPLEX E USA STORM JUST BEFORE CHRISTMAS AS
THE +PNA TRIES TO BE MORE ASSERTIVE AND IT LOOKS MORE AND MORE THAT
THINKING COLDER THAN GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO...MAY STILL BE CAUGHT
IN A MISREAD...BUT AM CONTINUING TO THINK COLDER DESPITE AN APPARENT
LACK OF CROSS POLAR FLOW. CERTAINLY MORE SNOW/ICE STORMS AT LEAST
TWO) HERE THIS MONTH (SNOW TO RAIN AND POSSIBLY BACK AGAIN COAST) AS
WE DRIFT TOWARD RECORD DECEMBER SNOWFALLS (CERTAINLY TOP 5 IS
APPEARING TO BE ABOUT 70 PERCENT CERTAIN NOW BASED ON MODEL AND
FCSTR EXPECATIONS FOR 12/14-15 EVENT). ALL THIS SO MUCH EASIER TO
ATTAIN AFTER THE 12/5-7 EVENT.
ECMWF YDY WAS TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER AND CLOSER TO SOME EARLIER
GFS ENS SIGNALS SENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE READS HAVE TO BE
WRONG SOMEWHERE...BECAUSE IF THEY ARE NOT...THE UNFOLDING SRN STREAM
PATTERN SEEMS TO GUIDING US RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS OF
SNE. ALSO MONTHLY QPF IN I95 REGIO SEWD MAY REACH 8 INCHES OR MORE.
SO NOT SAYING IT WILL BE TOP 5 BUT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING
AND BLV THERE IS A REASONABLE CHC OF THIS OCCURING. THE FIRST TEST
TO ADD TO THIS RUN FOR TOP 5 COMES SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN NEXT THURSDAY
AND THEREAFTER?
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
A RETURN TO MORE CHILLY WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES IN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS WAY OUT...AND TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN SO WILL NOT
GO INTO DETAILS.
ECMWF LOOKS WAY TO FAR N WITH... GFS ENS HAVE A DISTINCT SRN TRACK
AND GIVE THE 12Z/11 ECMWF 500 AND SFC PATTERN FOR DAY 7 LESS THAN 25
PCT CHC OF VERIFYING MORE ACCURATELY THAN THE DISTINCTLY SLY GFS ENS
TRACK OF THE PROGRESSIVE 500 TROF AND SUSPECT ECMWF WILL COME WAY
SOUTH WITH TIME. THIS EVENT HAS SIGNS OF BEING A MAJOR PLAYER HERE
WITH STORM FORCE CONDITIONS FOR THE CW AND THE TRACK IS STEADILY
HEADING E OF PRIOR RUNS. THIS WARM LOOKING PATTERN ALSO HAS COLDER
OPTIONS.
FOLLOWING THIS...THE ECMWF IS RUNNING COLDER EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY
WITH ITS 500 MEAN FLOW AND GFS ENS 850 TEMPS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO
-SD.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALE SUN NIGHT WITH 45KT GUSTS AND POSSIBLE 55 KT GUSTS. MORE
LATER...4PM PKG MAY NEED TO BOOST WINDS SUN NIGHT IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND ADD 5FT TO THE SEAS...SUSPICION IS WE WILL SEE 20 FT SEAS ON THIS
EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH 18 FT'S ENTRANCE TO BOS HARB.
OTRW MARINE AS GRIDDED/WRITTEN STANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WIND TODAY AND VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...CC BAY AND
BOS HARB.
$$
THIS AFTERNOON.../KAB
AVIATION MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 121706
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1205 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM PROBABLE (60 PCT FOR A FOOT
OR MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ~45 MILES...
MOST OF FCST ENERGY FOCUSED SUN-MON.
A BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP SUN AFTN AND EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
HAVE NOW PARTIALLY INTEGRATED THE 12Z GFS/ETA/CMC RUNS. STG UVM
COMPENSATES FOR A TIME...THE WARMING TKNS AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN
RTE 2 NWD WILL BE SNOW PROBABLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2-3" PER HR
WITH CSI ANTICIPATED TO ASSIST THE SNOW RATES.
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SEE 8-15" IN 6-12 HRS S NH AND N MA RTE 2 NWD WITH
LESSER SOUTH BUT MAYBE NOT BY MUCH. THEN AFTER 06Z IT TRANSITIONS TO
ICE AND RAIN (RAIN 195 SEWD).
TRACK CAN STILL EDGE N AND OR E FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS...SO NOT
LOCKED IN STONE BUT THE SIGNAL NOW FOR AT LEAST 24 HRS IS A BIG
FRONT END SNOW DUMP...ESP INTERIOR SNE.
ALB-BGM-BOX ALL ANTICIPATING A 4TH-6TH PRD WATCH AND STRONGLY WORDED
STMT FOR WALL OF SNOW SUN AFTN.
SUGGESTION FOR TRAVELERS...STAY ON TOP OF SITN BUT BE PREPARED FOR
A DELUGE OF SNOW SUN AFTN/EVE PTN OF INTERIOR SNE AND SIGNIFICANT IF
NOT MAJOR INTERRUTIONS....WITH EVEN WORSE SNOW CONDITIONS CENTRAL
APPS TO NYS AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY MORNING...DELAYS ANTICIPATED BUT IF 12Z MODELS CORRECT (WE
ARE RUNNING THE SFC LOW UP THE CC CNL NOT INLAND... THEN THE WORST
IS SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL WRAPAROUND NW MA AND SW NH MONDAY _.5 TO
4 INCHES. ICING COULD BE A PBLM AFTER 4-7Z-15Z MONDAY BDL-ORH
WWD.
.THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND ADVY EXPIRES SHORTLY. UPDATED WIND PNS POSSIBLE SOON.
MARINE STEPPING SOME GALES DOWN TO STG SCA ADJACENT LAND.
&&
.THE STORM...
NEW 12Z/12 ETA CK'D THRU 84 HRS AND ITS SHOWING AN 850 LOW DEVELOPING
S OF OUR LAT...IE CXY REGION 00Z MON - A GOOD SIGN FOR A SNOWSTORM
MHT-AFN-ORE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL AS SNOWFALL PRIOR
TO CHG TO RAIN COAST (850 SLY IN WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 1-3"/HR FOR AN
HR OR TWO IN SNE BEFORE ANY CHG TO SLEET/RAIN. ITS VERY EARLY AND WE
WILL DIGEST GFS BEFORE COMMITTING MORE SOLIDLY. WE DO THINK THE ETA
IS TOO WARM BY MONDAY BUT AT LEAST THE 12Z/12 ETA IS 120 M COLDER IN
ITS 500 LOW OVR CEF AT 18Z MON THAN THE 06Z VERSION! NOW TO
INTEGRATE WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVING GFS. 06Z GFS WAS PLENTY IMPRESSIVE
AS YOU ARE ALL AWARE. ALSO PRESUME EVERYONE IS NOTICING -12 8H AIR
FOR E NYS 18Z MONDAY...ALL THIS COLD NOT A SIGN OF THIS IN SOME ETA
EXTENSION MODELS 2 DAYS AGO NOR IN THE GFS ECMWF DATA AS MONITORED ON
A DAILY BASIS FROM THE 12Z/9 CYCLES THRU TODAY.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SE
QPF MA BY ETA/GFS ARD 2"...TAKE YOUR PICK ON BEST AXIS?
CERTAINLY MORE SNOW/ICE STORMS AT LEAST TWO) HERE THIS MONTH (SNOW TO
RAIN AND POSSIBLY BACK AGAIN COAST) AS WE DRIFT TOWARD RECORD
DECEMBER SNOWFALLS (CERTAINLY TOP 5 IS APPEARING TO BE ABOUT 70
PERCENT CERTAIN NOW BASED ON MODEL AND FCSTR EXPECATIONS FOR 12/14-15
EVENT). ALL THIS SO MUCH EASIER TO ATTAIN AFTER THE 12/5-7 EVENT.
ECMWF YDY WAS TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER AND CLOSER TO SOME EARLIER
GFS ENS SIGNALS SENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE READS HAVE TO BE
WRONG SOMEWHERE...BECAUSE IF THEY ARE NOT...THE UNFOLDING SRN STREAM
PATTERN SEEMS TO GUIDING US RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS OF
SNE. ALSO MONTHLY QPF IN I95 REGION SEWD MAY REACH 8 INCHES OR MORE.
SO NOT SAYING IT WILL BE TOP 5 BUT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING
AND BLV THERE IS A REASONABLE CHC OF THIS OCCURING. THE FIRST TEST
TO ADD TO THIS RUN FOR TOP 5 COMES SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN NEXT THURSDAY
AND THEREAFTER?
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALE SUN EVENING WITH 45KT GUSTS AND POSSIBLE 55 KT GUSTS.
MORE LATER...4PM PKG MAY NEED TO BOOST WINDS SUN NIGHT IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND ADD 5FT TO THE SEAS...SUSPICION IS WE WILL SEE 20 FT SEAS
ON THIS EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH 18 FT'S ENTRANCE TO BOS
HARB. OTRW MARINE AS GRIDDED/WRITTEN STANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WIND TODAY AND VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...CC BAY AND
BOS HARB.
$$
THIS AFTERNOON.../KAB
AVIATION MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 121711
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1211 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM PROBABLE (60 PCT FOR A FOOT
OR MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ~45 MILES...
MOST OF FCST ENERGY FOCUSED SUN-MON.
A BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP SUN AFTN AND EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
HAVE NOW PARTIALLY INTEGRATED THE 12Z GFS/ETA/CMC RUNS. STG UVM
COMPENSATES FOR A TIME...THE WARMING TKNS AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN
RTE 2 NWD WILL BE SNOW PROBABLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2-3" PER HR
WITH CSI ANTICIPATED TO ASSIST THE SNOW RATES.
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SEE 8-15" IN 6-12 HRS S NH AND N MA RTE 2 NWD WITH
LESSER SOUTH BUT MAYBE NOT BY MUCH. THEN AFTER 06Z IT TRANSITIONS TO
ICE AND RAIN (RAIN 195 SEWD).
TRACK CAN STILL EDGE N AND OR E FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS...SO NOT
LOCKED IN STONE BUT THE SIGNAL NOW FOR AT LEAST 24 HRS IS A BIG
FRONT END SNOW DUMP...ESP INTERIOR SNE.
ALB-BGM-BOX ALL ANTICIPATING A 4TH-6TH PRD WATCH AND STRONGLY WORDED
STMT FOR WALL OF SNOW SUN AFTN.
SUGGESTION FOR TRAVELERS...STAY ON TOP OF SITN BUT BE PREPARED FOR
A DELUGE OF SNOW SUN AFTN/EVE PTN OF INTERIOR SNE AND SIGNIFICANT IF
NOT MAJOR INTERRUTIONS....WITH EVEN WORSE SNOW CONDITIONS CENTRAL
APPS TO NYS AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY MORNING...DELAYS ANTICIPATED BUT IF 12Z MODELS CORRECT (WE
ARE RUNNING THE SFC LOW UP THE CC CNL NOT INLAND... THEN THE WORST
IS SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL WRAPAROUND NW MA AND SW NH MONDAY _.5 TO
4 INCHES. ICING COULD BE A PBLM AFTER 4-7Z-15Z MONDAY BDL-ORH
WWD.
.THIS AFTERNOON...
WIND ADVY EXPIRES SHORTLY. UPDATED WIND PNS POSSIBLE SOON.
MARINE STEPPING SOME GALES DOWN TO STG SCA ADJACENT LAND.
&&
.THE STORM...
NEW 12Z/12 ETA CK'D THRU 84 HRS AND ITS SHOWING AN 850 LOW DEVELOPING
S OF OUR LAT...IE CXY REGION 00Z MON - A GOOD SIGN FOR A SNOWSTORM
MHT-AFN-ORE...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL AS SNOWFALL PRIOR
TO CHG TO RAIN COAST (850 SLY IN WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS 1-3"/HR FOR AN
HR OR TWO IN SNE BEFORE ANY CHG TO SLEET/RAIN. ITS VERY EARLY AND WE
WILL DIGEST GFS BEFORE COMMITTING MORE SOLIDLY. WE DO THINK THE ETA
IS TOO WARM BY MONDAY BUT AT LEAST THE 12Z/12 ETA IS 120 M COLDER IN
ITS 500 LOW OVR CEF AT 18Z MON THAN THE 06Z VERSION! NOW TO
INTEGRATE WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVING GFS. 06Z GFS WAS PLENTY IMPRESSIVE
AS YOU ARE ALL AWARE. ALSO PRESUME EVERYONE IS NOTICING -12 8H AIR
FOR E NYS 18Z MONDAY...ALL THIS COLD NOT A SIGN OF THIS IN SOME ETA
EXTENSION MODELS 2 DAYS AGO NOR IN THE GFS ECMWF DATA AS MONITORED ON
A DAILY BASIS FROM THE 12Z/9 CYCLES THRU TODAY.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SE
QPF MA BY ETA/GFS ARD 2"...TAKE YOUR PICK ON BEST AXIS?
CERTAINLY MORE SNOW/ICE STORMS AT LEAST TWO) HERE THIS MONTH (SNOW TO
RAIN AND POSSIBLY BACK AGAIN COAST) AS WE DRIFT TOWARD RECORD
DECEMBER SNOWFALLS (CERTAINLY TOP 5 IS APPEARING TO BE ABOUT 70
PERCENT CERTAIN NOW BASED ON MODEL AND FCSTR EXPECATIONS FOR 12/14-15
EVENT). ALL THIS SO MUCH EASIER TO ATTAIN AFTER THE 12/5-7 EVENT.
ECMWF YDY WAS TRENDING COLDER AND COLDER AND CLOSER TO SOME EARLIER
GFS ENS SIGNALS SENT EARLIER THIS WEEK. THESE READS HAVE TO BE
WRONG SOMEWHERE...BECAUSE IF THEY ARE NOT...THE UNFOLDING SRN STREAM
PATTERN SEEMS TO GUIDING US RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL IN PORTIONS OF
SNE. ALSO MONTHLY QPF IN I95 REGION SEWD MAY REACH 8 INCHES OR MORE.
SO NOT SAYING IT WILL BE TOP 5 BUT THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING
AND BLV THERE IS A REASONABLE CHC OF THIS OCCURING. THE FIRST TEST
TO ADD TO THIS RUN FOR TOP 5 COMES SUNDAY/MONDAY...THEN NEXT THURSDAY
AND THEREAFTER?
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALE SUN EVENING WITH 45KT GUSTS AND POSSIBLE 55 KT GUSTS.
MORE LATER...4PM PKG MAY NEED TO BOOST WINDS SUN NIGHT IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND ADD 5FT TO THE SEAS...SUSPICION IS WE WILL SEE 20 FT SEAS
ON THIS EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH 18 FT'S ENTRANCE TO BOS
HARB. OTRW MARINE AS GRIDDED/WRITTEN STANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WIND TODAY AND VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...CC BAY AND
BOS HARB.
$$
THIS AFTERNOON.../KAB
AVIATION MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 121849
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
148 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM PROBABLE SW NH (60 PCT FOR A FOOT
OR MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ~45 MILES...
FCST ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALMOST NO GRIDDED INTERACTION
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY... WE DID UPDATE THU/FRI THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALMOST NO TIME TO WORK ON TUE/WED WX.
MOST OF FCST ENERGY FOCUSED SUN-MON WITH TS+ OF 1-3"HR IN THE 20Z-
04Z TIEM FRAME THEN A MESS. MOST OF THE TS+ W OF I95.
A BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP SUN AFTN AND EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
HAVE NOW INTEGRATED THE 12Z GFS/ETA/CMC RUNS AND 4 BOX/TAR FCSTRS
AND THEN COORD WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. STG UVM COMPENSATES FOR A
TIME...THE WARMING TKNS AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN RTE 2 NWD WILL BE
SNOW PROBABLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2-3" PER HR WITH CSI LIKELY TO
BRIEFLY ASSIST THE SNOW RATES. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSNOW
ANTICIPATED.
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SEE 8-15" IN 6-12 HRS S NH AND N MA RTE 2 NWD WITH
LESSER SOUTH BUT MAYBE NOT BY MUCH. THEN AFTER 06Z IT TRANSITIONS TO
ICE AND RAIN (RAIN 195 SEWD).
TRACK CAN STILL EDGE N AND OR E FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS...SO NOT
LOCKED IN STONE BUT THE SIGNAL NOW FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 24 HRS IS A
BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP...ESP INTERIOR SNE.
WATCH BEING ISSUED BY RMT AT 3PM...CONSTRUCTING NOW BUT BRIEFING EM
AND MEDIA.
SUGGESTION FOR TRAVELERS...STAY ON TOP OF SITN BUT BE PREPARED FOR
A DELUGE OF SNOW SUN AFTN/EVE PTN OF INTERIOR SNE AND SIGNIFICANT IF
NOT MAJOR INTERRUTIONS....WITH EVEN WORSE SNOW CONDITIONS CENTRAL
APPS TO NYS AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY MORNING...DELAYS ANTICIPATED BUT IF 12Z MODELS CORRECT (WE
ARE RUNNING THE SFC LOW UP THE CC CNL NOT INLAND... THEN THE WORST
IS SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL WRAPAROUND NW MA AND SW NH MONDAY _.5 TO
4 INCHES. ICING COULD BE A PBLM AFTER 4-7Z-15Z MONDAY BDL-ORH
WWD.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL. ETA MUCH-MUCH COLDER THAN THE
GFS AT 00Z MON AT BDL NR 2K...SO DESPITE ITS WARM 850-700...GO EASY
ON THE WARMUP.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SE
QPF MA BY ETA/GFS ARD 2"...TAKE YOUR PICK ON BEST AXIS? WE HAVE
ENCOURAGED HPC TO PUT A BAND OF 6+ SNOWFALL TO BDL-SFZ-BVY NWWD.
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG GALE SUN EVENING WITH 45KT GUSTS AND POSSIBLE 55 KT GUSTS.
MORE LATER...4PM PKG MAY NEED TO BOOST WINDS SUN NIGHT IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND ADD 5FT TO THE SEAS...SUSPICION IS WE WILL SEE 20 FT SEAS
ON THIS EVENT SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WITH 18 FT'S ENTRANCE TO BOS
HARB. OTRW MARINE AS GRIDDED/WRITTEN STANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WIND TODAY AND VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY CT 2>4.
MA...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY MA 2>5 8>12.
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10AM MONDAY MA 5 AND 12
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THRU 3 AM MONDAY MA 6,7 13>16
NH...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY NH 11 12 15
RI...WSA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING RI 1>3 (RI1 THRU 10 A RI
2,3 THRU 3A)
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...
CC BAY AND BOS HARB.
$$
THIS AFTERNOON.../KAB
AVIATION MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 122029
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
328 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM PROBABLE SW NH (60 PCT FOR A FOOT
OR MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ~45 MILES...
FCST ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALMOST NO GRIDDED INTERACTION
BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY... WE DID UPDATE THU/FRI THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALMOST NO TIME TO WORK ON TUE/WED WX.
MOST OF FCST ENERGY FOCUSED SUN-MON WITH TS+ OF 1-3"HR IN THE 20Z-
04Z TIEM FRAME THEN A MESS. MOST OF THE TS+ W OF I95.
A BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP SUN AFTN AND EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
HAVE NOW INTEGRATED THE 12Z GFS/ETA/CMC RUNS AND 4 BOX/TAR FCSTRS
AND THEN COORD WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. STG UVM COMPENSATES FOR A
TIME...THE WARMING TKNS AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN RTE 2 NWD WILL BE
SNOW PROBABLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2-3" PER HR WITH CSI LIKELY TO
BRIEFLY ASSIST THE SNOW RATES. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSNOW
ANTICIPATED.
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SEE 8-15" IN 6-12 HRS S NH AND N MA RTE 2 NWD WITH
LESSER SOUTH BUT MAYBE NOT BY MUCH. THEN AFTER 06Z IT TRANSITIONS TO
ICE AND RAIN (RAIN 195 SEWD).
TRACK CAN STILL EDGE N AND OR E FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS...SO NOT
LOCKED IN STONE BUT THE SIGNAL NOW FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 24 HRS IS A
BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP...ESP INTERIOR SNE.
WATCH BEING ISSUED BY RMT AT 3PM...CONSTRUCTING NOW BUT BRIEFING EM
AND MEDIA.
SUGGESTION FOR TRAVELERS...STAY ON TOP OF SITN BUT BE PREPARED FOR
A DELUGE OF SNOW SUN AFTN/EVE PTN OF INTERIOR SNE AND SIGNIFICANT IF
NOT MAJOR INTERRUTIONS....WITH EVEN WORSE SNOW CONDITIONS CENTRAL
APPS TO NYS AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY MORNING...DELAYS ANTICIPATED BUT IF 12Z MODELS CORRECT (WE
ARE RUNNING THE SFC LOW UP THE CC CNL NOT INLAND... THEN THE WORST
IS SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL WRAPAROUND NW MA AND SW NH MONDAY _.5 TO
4 INCHES. ICING COULD BE A PBLM AFTER 4-7Z-15Z MONDAY BDL-ORH
WWD.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL. ETA MUCH-MUCH COLDER THAN THE
GFS AT 00Z MON AT BDL NR 2K...SO DESPITE ITS WARM 850-700...GO EASY
ON THE WARMUP.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SE
QPF MA BY ETA/GFS ARD 2"...TAKE YOUR PICK ON BEST AXIS? WE HAVE
ENCOURAGED HPC TO PUT A BAND OF 6+ SNOWFALL TO BDL-SFZ-BVY NWWD.
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL TAKING PLACE OVER WATERS TONIGHT CAUSING
GOOD MIXING THEREFORE WILL GO WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT WITH LESSER WINDS INNER WATERS. AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT...WINDS TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUTER WATERS. BENIGN CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...THEN LOW ADVANCES
WITH A VENGENCE. WINDS TURN STRONG EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LATE DAY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AT 35 TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KTS POSSIBLE.
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER REGION EARLY MONDAY...AFTERWHICH STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT SEAS TO RISE MARKEDLY ON
THE FRONT END OF STORM...WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER SOUTH
COAST FROM MONTAUK TO SE OF ACK AND 12 TO 18 FT ALONG THE OUTER
WATERS FROM MERRIMACK TO CHATHAM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY CT 2>4.
MA...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY MA 2>5 8>12.
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10AM MONDAY MA 5 AND 12
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THRU 3 AM MONDAY MA 6,7 13>16
NH...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY NH 11 12 15
RI...WSA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING RI 1>3 (RI1 THRU 10 A RI
2,3 THRU 3A)
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...
CC BAY AND BOS HARB.
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 122214
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL DAY SHIFT..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
...ANOTHER BLOCKBUSTER SNOW STORM PROBABLE SW NH (60 PCT FOR A FOOT
OR MORE) BUT THIS TIME SHIFTED NW BY ~45 MILES...
ENTIRE PACKAGE POSTED. WE HOPE IT IS ACCEPTABLE AS IS. WE ARE MDTLY
CONFIDENT IN THE SCENARIO POSTED...DESPITE THE VERY WARM LOOKING
ETA. THE 18Z GFS CONTS ITS SONG OF SE AND COLDER AND WE THINK...
NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS BTWN 850-750MB... LOW LVS WILL REMAIN BLO
FREEZING IN THE NW SECXTOR OF OUR AREA WITH SNOW TO ICE ALMOST A
CERTAINTY AND EVEN THIS 18Z GFS HAS MORE WRAPAROUND THAN EXPECTED.
PLEASE BE AWARE THAT IF THIS STORM STAYS ALL SNOW IN SW NH AND NW
MA...WE EXPECT 20-24"...AGAIN IF. CSI IS A BIG PLAYER LATE SUN
AFTN/EVE.
AGAIN THE TUE/WED FCST IS UNTOUCHED FROM THE MID SHIFT. JUST NO
TIME. WE DID UPDATE THU/FRI THIS MORNING.
ON TUE/WED WX.
MOST OF FCST ENERGY FOCUSED SUN-MON WITH TS+ OF 1-3"HR IN THE 20Z-
04Z TIEM FRAME THEN A MESS. MOST OF THE TS+ W OF I95.
A BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP SUN AFTN AND EVENING IS ANTICIPATED AS WE
HAVE NOW INTEGRATED THE 12Z GFS/ETA/CMC RUNS AND 4 BOX/TAR FCSTRS
AND THEN COORD WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. STG UVM COMPENSATES FOR A
TIME...THE WARMING TKNS AND THE BULK OF THE PCPN RTE 2 NWD WILL BE
SNOW PROBABLY FALLING AT THE RATE OF 2-3" PER HR WITH CSI LIKELY TO
BRIEFLY ASSIST THE SNOW RATES. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSNOW
ANTICIPATED.
RIGHT NOW WE SEE AT LEAST 8-15" IN 6-12 HRS S NH AND N MA RTE 2 NWD
WITH LESSER SOUTH...MAYBE 4-8 BOS BUT ORH BDL COULD END 7-14 BEWFORE
THE SWAP TO ICE.
PYM-WST MAY PICK UP A QUICK 5 BEFORE CHG TO R???
TRACK CAN STILL EDGE N AND OR E FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS...SO NOT
LOCKED IN STONE BUT THE SIGNAL NOW FOR AT LEAST THE PAST 24 HRS IS A
BIG FRONT END SNOW DUMP...ESP INTERIOR SNE.
SUGGESTION FOR TRAVELERS...STAY ON TOP OF SITN BUT BE PREPARED FOR
A DELUGE OF SNOW SUN AFTN/EVE PTN OF INTERIOR SNE AND SIGNIFICANT IF
NOT MAJOR INTERRUTIONS....WITH EVEN WORSE SNOW CONDITIONS CENTRAL
APPS TO NYS AND NWRN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY MORNING...DELAYS ANTICIPATED BUT IF 12Z MODELS CORRECT (WE
ARE RUNNING THE SFC LOW UP THE CC CNL NOT INLAND... THEN THE WORST
IS SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL WRAPAROUND NW MA AND SW NH MONDAY _.5 TO
4 INCHES. ICING COULD BE A PBLM AFTER 4-7Z-15Z MONDAY BDL-ORH
WWD.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE BIG AS WELL. ETA MUCH-MUCH COLDER THAN THE
GFS AT 00Z MON AT BDL NR 2K...SO DESPITE ITS WARM 850-700...GO EASY
ON THE WARMUP.
ETA AXIS ALG DERIVED 10-20" IS MSS TO CRW GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SE
QPF MA BY ETA/GFS ARD 2"...TAKE YOUR PICK ON BEST AXIS? WE HAVE
ENCOURAGED HPC TO PUT A BAND OF 6+ SNOWFALL TO BDL-SFZ-BVY NWWD.
BOS ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 27.9 1970
BDL ALL TIME DEC SNOWFALL IS 45.3 IN 1945...30" WOULD PLACE TOP 3.
ORH ALL TIME DEC IS ~37 IN 1992.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD AIR ADVECTION STILL TAKING PLACE OVER WATERS TONIGHT CAUSING
GOOD MIXING THEREFORE WILL GO WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT WITH LESSER WINDS INNER WATERS. AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT...WINDS TO SUBSIDE HOWEVER ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUTER WATERS. BENIGN CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM...THEN LOW ADVANCES
WITH A VENGENCE. WINDS TURN STRONG EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LATE DAY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AT 35 TO 45 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 KTS POSSIBLE.
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER REGION EARLY MONDAY...AFTERWHICH STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT SEAS TO RISE MARKEDLY ON
THE FRONT END OF STORM...WITH 15 TO 20 FT SEAS ALONG THE OUTER SOUTH
COAST FROM MONTAUK TO SE OF ACK AND 12 TO 18 FT ALONG THE OUTER
WATERS FROM MERRIMACK TO CHATHAM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT AND SAT. COLDER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY CT 2>4.
MA...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY MA 2>5 8>12.
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10AM MONDAY MA 5 AND 12
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THRU 3 AM MONDAY MA 6,7 13>16
NH...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY NH 11 12 15
RI...WSA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING RI 1>3 (RI1 THRU 10 A RI
2,3 THRU 3A)
MARINE...GALE OUTER WATERS...SCA SRN SOUNDS...NARR BAY...
CC BAY AND BOS HARB.
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...KAB
PUBLIC...DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 130329
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SOUNDS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT.
ALSO SENT A CORRECTION TO THE COASTAL FOR THE HEADLINE FOR
NARRAGANSETT BAY FOR SUNDAY. ADJUSTED GRIDS AND COASTALS FOR
LOWERED GUSTS THAN PREV FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH
LINES UP NICELY WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. ZONES LOOK GOOD.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10 AM MONDAY CT 2>4.
MA...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY MA 2>5 8>12.
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 10AM MONDAY MA 5 AND 12
WSA SUN AFTERNOON THRU 3 AM MONDAY MA 6,7 13>16
NH...WSA SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY NH 11 12 15
RI...WSA SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON MORNING RI 1>3 (RI1 THRU 10 AM RI
2,3 THRU 3 AM)
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER WATERS.
$$
NEAR TERM...AED
SHORT TERM...EVT
FXUS61 KBOX 131018
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
517 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW PATCHES OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND S OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT
THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND RIDGING
ALOFT CUTS OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW
GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING TODAY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENING FOR A TIME
TODAY...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO WE EXPECT TO
SEE SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...SO
WE CONTINUED TO GO COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WILL BE
CRUCIAL. PRECIPITATION TYPES...AS WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL
HINGE ENTIRELY UPON THE LOWS TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENTLY THINKING THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ABOUT THE
CAPE COD CANAL. THIS PATH WOULD KEEP MOST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALL SNOW...A MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEAST
MA...THEN PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING WIND
SPEEDS OF 50-70 KT ABOUT 5000 FT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF WE GET
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO MIX SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL.
WE ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
HEADS OUR WAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUN MORNING AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH BASES
4-6KFT GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA 20KFT SUN
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF 20-25KT WINDS FROM MID MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>6-8>12-26.
WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ZNS 7-13>19.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 11-12-15.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ZNS 1>4.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
FXUS61 KBOX 131614
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1114 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
...A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL HAVE MUCH MORE DETAILED INFORMATION AFTER WE GATHER SOME MORE
THOUGHTS FROM OUR FORECAST STAFF.
FRANK/KAB/MCJ
--------------------------------------------------------------------
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW PATCHES OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER THE BERKSHIRES AND S OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT
THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND RIDGING
ALOFT CUTS OFF THE LAKE INFLUENCE. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS ALSO SHOW
GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING TODAY THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENING FOR A TIME
TODAY...MAINLY FROM MID MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...SO WE EXPECT TO
SEE SOME BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...SO
WE CONTINUED TO GO COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY WILL BE
CRUCIAL. PRECIPITATION TYPES...AS WELL AS SNOW ACCUMULATION...WILL
HINGE ENTIRELY UPON THE LOWS TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENTLY THINKING THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ABOUT THE
CAPE COD CANAL. THIS PATH WOULD KEEP MOST OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ALL SNOW...A MIX ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHEAST
MA...THEN PRIMARILY RAIN ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AT THIS
TIME THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
CORE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND. SEVERAL MODELS ADVERTISING WIND
SPEEDS OF 50-70 KT ABOUT 5000 FT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF WE GET
ENOUGH WARM AIR TO MIX SOME OF THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR WIND POTENTIAL.
WE ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT COASTAL FLOODING AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
HEADS OUR WAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUN MORNING AS SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH BASES
4-6KFT GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA 20KFT SUN
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTED FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF 20-25KT WINDS FROM MID MORNING
INTO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>6-8>12-26.
WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ZNS 7-13>19.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 11-12-15.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ZNS 1>4.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUTER WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
FXUS61 KBOX 131901
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FORECAST...
...A HUGE SNOWSTORM WILL STRIKE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, WITH CLASSIC
SNOW TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST...
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BE THE CONCERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING STRONG MID
LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA
BY AROUND NOON...REACH THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TOWARD EVENING.
INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY SNOW
INITIALLY. EXPECT TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE
COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DUE EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SAME TIME WARM MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH THE OTHER OFFICES AND WILL BE
UPGRADING MOST OF THE WATCH TO A WARNING. FOR FAR NORTHWESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS WILL GO WITH 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY
UP TO TWO FEET. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY COME IN ALOFT TO CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR A
SHORT TIME...BUT IT WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ON MONDAY BEFORE
ENDING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EXTENDING TO
AROUND WORCESTER AREA. VERY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. WE ARE GOING WITH 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION.
WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE FALLEN. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...BUT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THEN.
THE HARDEST PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
SNOW WILL FALL VERY HEAVY...BUT AN EASTERLY WIND THIS TIME OF YEAR
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN AT NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S.
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST...A
FEW QUICK INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE A QUICK CHANGE TO
RAIN. TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY SOAR TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AS
MUCH WARMER AIR FLOODS IN OFF THE ATLANTIC.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH THE RIVER FORECASTING CENTER...A FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AS RAPIDLY MELTING
SNOW AND HEAVY RAIN...WILL AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.
ALSO...A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REALLY BOMBS OUT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
.MARINE...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO WITH
SEAS AROUND 20 FT...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE. ALSO...
HAVE BROUGHT UP WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>3, ADVISORY 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST, HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST, FLOOD WATCH
SUNDAY NIGHT
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ALL
ZONES
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MUCH OF THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A VERY STRONG GALE
$$
SHORT TERM...MCJ
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FRANK
LONG TERM...KAB
FXUS61 KBOX 140131
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
831 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
...AT LEAST TWO MORE MAJOR STORMS-POSSIBLY 3-EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12/14-26...
WILL UPDATE THIS AFD AT 1050P IF NEW MODELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
DIFFERENT FROM CURRENT FCST.
.PATTERN...
FOR HUGE STORMS THIS FALL...YOU CANNOT ASK MUCH BETTER THIS EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. 12/14-15 AND 12/17-18 THEN POSSIBLY 12/24ISH.
WIND HAS BEEN FEATURED HERE THIS FALL AS WELL.
&&
.HYDRO...
NO DROUGHT HERE THIS MONTH. MQE ALREADY 4.4+ AND
BY THE TIME THE MONTH IS DONE 8 TO 12 INCHES WATER EQUIV MAY HAVE
FALLEN IN SOME SPOTS. SNOWFALL...CONT THE EDGE TWRD TOP 5 MONTHLY.
FLOODING...TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE ST FLOODING 04Z-11Z TIME FRAME I
95 AND 184 SWD... BUT FLS CAN BE ISSUED SUNDAY TO HANDLE. NO FF OF
SMALL STREAMS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COLD TEMPS AND SOME ABSORBTION OF
RAIN BY NEWLY FALLEN SNOW. SAXONVILLE IS THE TARGET FOR A PBLM IF
2" OF RAIN BUT...2" OF RAIN NOT LIKELY THERE... MORE LIKE .8" OF SWE
AND (SNOW/SLEET) AND 1.2" RAIN.
&&
.MODELS...
GFS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR NCEP AND THIS FCSTR WITH SOME LOW LVL
TEMP/WIND RES FROM THE ETA.
&&
.THE STORM...
THE EVENT TOMORROW SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED AND RECOMMEND NO
COMPARISON IN NW MA AND SW NH WITH THE LAST STORM. THIS STORM
COULD EQUAL OR EXCEED THE DUMPS THERE FROM AFN W AND N...IN A SHORTER
PERIOD OF TIME---IE HIGHER SHORT TERM IMPACT. WE BLV ALL ON THE ROAD
SUNDAY EVE BDL-ORH-BOS NWD WILL HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL FOR A FEW HRS.
S+ AT NIGHT WITH 2-ISOLATED 4"/HR AMTS FOR 1-4 HRS...ESP RTE 2 NWD IN
22Z-04Z TIME FRAME. AND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. ITS HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE...BUT SUSPECT YOU WILL SEE THE COMMA HEAD DEVELOP OUT OF A
CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMING ABOUT 100 MI S OF ISP AT 21Z AND THIS WILL
PUSH RAPIDLY NWD INTO SNE THEN SPREAD NWWD INTO NYS. THIS IS ABOUT
THE TIME OF STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS (12HR BOMBOGENESIS RATE) AND
SHORTENING WAVELENGTH OCCUR. NOT A GWAVE SPECIALIST BUT WONDERING
ABOUT ONE DEVELOPING AND ALTERING THE SNOWFALL RATES/PCPN SHIELD.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED GENL THUNDER HERE. KI GOES TO 34 AND SWI TO -3 S OF
LI TOMORROW EVE.
.SNOW AMTS AND CSI...
SNOW AMTS LOOK EXCT AT THIS TIME AND NO CHGS PLANNED FOR
THE 10 PM RELEASE... WIDE RANGES DUE TO BANDING ISSUES AND POSSIBLE
GWV ALTERATIONS. CLEARLY THERE IS GOING TO BE A VERY STRONG
CSI SIGNAL CI/CSI ON THE FRONT END FOR SNE AND SHOULD BE NOTICED.
LOOK FOR IT S OF DCA AT 15Z EXPANDING E-W CXY-ACY "BY" 18Z...BGM-
ISP BY 21Z AND UCA TO BID BY 00Z... THIS LOOKS MEAN FOR A SHORT 1
OR 2 HRS BUT QUITE FIERCE IN SOME OF THE INDICATORS WE ARE SEEING.
ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHETHER I MISREAD THE SIGNAL. WATCH FOR THIS
EVENT. SNOWGROWTH LOOKS OPTIMAL. THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR A BRIEF
BUT DISRUPTIVE WX EVENT
09Z SREF WAS IMPRESSIVE ON ITS SNOW FCST! WE ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED
ABT FCSTG SUCH HIGH SNOW AMTS WITH 1000-500K ABV 540 BUT THE FIRST
SEGMENT IS OCCURING IN HIGH 500 HTS AND PARTIAL TKINS SUGGEST COLUMN
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF TIMKE TO REALIZE
A SUBSTANTIAL AMT OF SNOW.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL LEAD... BACKLASH SHOULD/WILL OCCUR DXR...BDL-
PYM NWD...ESP RTE 2 NWD WITH DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ORE-
AFN MONDAY MIDDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH LOOKS EXCT FOR CONVERSION. CURRENT ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST HIGH WIND CONDITIONS 02-08Z THEN THE LOW GOES ACROSS THE CC
CANAL BY 11Z MON. BACK LASH WIND MON MIDDAY WITH WIND ADVY CONDS
EXPECTED SCATTERED SPOTS INTERIOR INCLUDING BDL/BAF/ORH AND HIGH WIND
50 KT GUSTS CC AND ACK BY 21Z. SCT POWER OUTAGES ANTICIPATED.
FLOODING...TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE ST FLOODING 04Z-11Z TIME FRAME I
95 AND 184 SWD... BUT FLS CAN BE ISSUED SUNDAY TO HANDLE. NO FF OF
SMALL STREAMS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COLD TEMPS AND SOME ABSORBTION OF
RAIN BY NEWLY FALLEN SNOW.
THIS IS A STORM NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY IN THE INTERIOR DESPITE LAST
WEEKENDS STORM.
AS FOR THE 17TH AND 18TH...A WARMER STORM LIKELY THAN EVEN THIS...
AND YES WE SAW THE SFC PRES 966 MB AND 500 MB HTS DOWN TO 513. PREFER
NO FURTHER COMMENT EXCEPT TO SAY THIS HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HINTED AT THE
IN LAST 5 DAYS OF GFS MODELS VIA ENS AND RMOP...TIMING ETC DIFFERS.
WHETHER IT COMES TO PASS THIS DEEP?
AND QUITE A SRN USA TROF IS OUTLOOKED TWD CHRISTMAS BUT ITS
DISMANTLED BEFORE BECOMING A BIG PLAYER HERE...STAY TUNED...THE
PATH IS PAVE DANMD WITH NO BIG CHANGES YET IN THE PNA/NAO...WE'LL
ROLL WITH CONTINUITY ON STRONG STORMS HERE.
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR 4PM SUNDAY.
BELOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON FCST PKG...
SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY AROUND NOON...REACH THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TOWARD
EVENING. INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY SNOW
INITIALLY. EXPECT TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE
COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DUE EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SAME TIME WARM MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
18Z GFS KEEPS THIS ALL SNOW NW FRANKLIN CTY AND NW CHESHIRE CTY WITH
MAYBE 2-3 HRS OF SLEET NR 12Z MONDAY. IF SO...2 FT IN HIGH TERRAIN
THERE. ELSEWHERE WARM AIR MAY COME IN ALOFT TO CHANGE THE PCPN IN
THIS REGION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT IT WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EXTENDING TO
AROUND WORCESTER AREA. VERY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. WE ARE GOING WITH 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION.
WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE FALLEN. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...BUT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THEN.
THE HARDEST PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
SNOW WILL FALL VERY HEAVY...BUT AN EASTERLY WIND THIS TIME OF YEAR
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN AT NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S.
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST...A
FEW QUICK INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE A QUICK CHANGE TO
RAIN. TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY SOAR TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AS
MUCH WARMER AIR FLOODS IN OFF THE ATLANTIC.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING NOREASTER. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN RESIDE
FOR A SHORT WHILE TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. JET
STREAM TAKES A DIP SOUTH SPAWNING YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
COASTAL STORMS SLATED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MID WEEK. THIS
NOREASTER LOOKS MUCH WARMER THAN PREDECESSORS AND LACKING A GOOD COLD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SO FOR MID WEEK MORE OF A SOAKER
ON TAP. FREEZING RAIN COULD BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER
THICKNESSES CRASH ON WRAP AROUND WHILE WARMER AIR LAGS ALOFT. ON
FRIDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SHORT LIVED FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO WITH
SEAS AROUND 20 FT...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE. ALSO...
HAVE BROUGHT UP WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>3, ADVISORY 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST, HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ALL ZONES
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MUCH OF THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A VERY STRONG GALE
$$
NEAR AND SHORT TERM...MMC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FRANK/DRAG
LONG TERM AND AVIATION...KAB/DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 140405
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
831 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
ZONES LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATE NEEDED.
...AT LEAST TWO MORE MAJOR STORMS-POSSIBLY 3-EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 12/14-26...
WILL UPDATE THIS AFD AT 1050P IF NEW MODELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
DIFFERENT FROM CURRENT FCST.
.PATTERN...
FOR HUGE STORMS THIS FALL...YOU CANNOT ASK MUCH BETTER THIS EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. 12/14-15 AND 12/17-18 THEN POSSIBLY 12/24ISH.
WIND HAS BEEN FEATURED HERE THIS FALL AS WELL.
&&
.HYDRO...
NO DROUGHT HERE THIS MONTH. MQE ALREADY 4.4+ AND
BY THE TIME THE MONTH IS DONE 8 TO 12 INCHES WATER EQUIV MAY HAVE
FALLEN IN SOME SPOTS. SNOWFALL...CONT THE EDGE TWRD TOP 5 MONTHLY.
FLOODING...TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE ST FLOODING 04Z-11Z TIME FRAME I
95 AND 184 SWD... BUT FLS CAN BE ISSUED SUNDAY TO HANDLE. NO FF OF
SMALL STREAMS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COLD TEMPS AND SOME ABSORBTION OF
RAIN BY NEWLY FALLEN SNOW. SAXONVILLE IS THE TARGET FOR A PBLM IF
2" OF RAIN BUT...2" OF RAIN NOT LIKELY THERE... MORE LIKE .8" OF SWE
AND (SNOW/SLEET) AND 1.2" RAIN.
&&
.MODELS...
GFS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR NCEP AND THIS FCSTR WITH SOME LOW LVL
TEMP/WIND RES FROM THE ETA.
&&
.THE STORM...
THE EVENT TOMORROW SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED AND RECOMMEND NO
COMPARISON IN NW MA AND SW NH WITH THE LAST STORM. THIS STORM
COULD EQUAL OR EXCEED THE DUMPS THERE FROM AFN W AND N...IN A SHORTER
PERIOD OF TIME---IE HIGHER SHORT TERM IMPACT. WE BLV ALL ON THE ROAD
SUNDAY EVE BDL-ORH-BOS NWD WILL HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL FOR A FEW HRS.
S+ AT NIGHT WITH 2-ISOLATED 4"/HR AMTS FOR 1-4 HRS...ESP RTE 2 NWD IN
22Z-04Z TIME FRAME. AND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. ITS HARD TO PREDICT
WHERE...BUT SUSPECT YOU WILL SEE THE COMMA HEAD DEVELOP OUT OF A
CLUSTER OF TSTMS FORMING ABOUT 100 MI S OF ISP AT 21Z AND THIS WILL
PUSH RAPIDLY NWD INTO SNE THEN SPREAD NWWD INTO NYS. THIS IS ABOUT
THE TIME OF STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS (12HR BOMBOGENESIS RATE) AND
SHORTENING WAVELENGTH OCCUR. NOT A GWAVE SPECIALIST BUT WONDERING
ABOUT ONE DEVELOPING AND ALTERING THE SNOWFALL RATES/PCPN SHIELD.
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED GENL THUNDER HERE. KI GOES TO 34 AND SWI TO -3 S OF
LI TOMORROW EVE.
.SNOW AMTS AND CSI...
SNOW AMTS LOOK EXCT AT THIS TIME AND NO CHGS PLANNED FOR
THE 10 PM RELEASE... WIDE RANGES DUE TO BANDING ISSUES AND POSSIBLE
GWV ALTERATIONS. CLEARLY THERE IS GOING TO BE A VERY STRONG
CSI SIGNAL CI/CSI ON THE FRONT END FOR SNE AND SHOULD BE NOTICED.
LOOK FOR IT S OF DCA AT 15Z EXPANDING E-W CXY-ACY "BY" 18Z...BGM-
ISP BY 21Z AND UCA TO BID BY 00Z... THIS LOOKS MEAN FOR A SHORT 1
OR 2 HRS BUT QUITE FIERCE IN SOME OF THE INDICATORS WE ARE SEEING.
ONLY TIME WILL TELL WHETHER I MISREAD THE SIGNAL. WATCH FOR THIS
EVENT. SNOWGROWTH LOOKS OPTIMAL. THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR A BRIEF
BUT DISRUPTIVE WX EVENT
09Z SREF WAS IMPRESSIVE ON ITS SNOW FCST! WE ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED
ABT FCSTG SUCH HIGH SNOW AMTS WITH 1000-500K ABV 540 BUT THE FIRST
SEGMENT IS OCCURING IN HIGH 500 HTS AND PARTIAL TKINS SUGGEST COLUMN
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF TIMKE TO REALIZE
A SUBSTANTIAL AMT OF SNOW.
FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL LEAD... BACKLASH SHOULD/WILL OCCUR DXR...BDL-
PYM NWD...ESP RTE 2 NWD WITH DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ORE-
AFN MONDAY MIDDAY.
HIGH WIND WATCH LOOKS EXCT FOR CONVERSION. CURRENT ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST HIGH WIND CONDITIONS 02-08Z THEN THE LOW GOES ACROSS THE CC
CANAL BY 11Z MON. BACK LASH WIND MON MIDDAY WITH WIND ADVY CONDS
EXPECTED SCATTERED SPOTS INTERIOR INCLUDING BDL/BAF/ORH AND HIGH WIND
50 KT GUSTS CC AND ACK BY 21Z. SCT POWER OUTAGES ANTICIPATED.
FLOODING...TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE ST FLOODING 04Z-11Z TIME FRAME I
95 AND 184 SWD... BUT FLS CAN BE ISSUED SUNDAY TO HANDLE. NO FF OF
SMALL STREAMS ANTICIPATED DUE TO COLD TEMPS AND SOME ABSORBTION OF
RAIN BY NEWLY FALLEN SNOW.
THIS IS A STORM NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY IN THE INTERIOR DESPITE LAST
WEEKENDS STORM.
AS FOR THE 17TH AND 18TH...A WARMER STORM LIKELY THAN EVEN THIS...
AND YES WE SAW THE SFC PRES 966 MB AND 500 MB HTS DOWN TO 513. PREFER
NO FURTHER COMMENT EXCEPT TO SAY THIS HAS BEEN BRIEFLY HINTED AT THE
IN LAST 5 DAYS OF GFS MODELS VIA ENS AND RMOP...TIMING ETC DIFFERS.
WHETHER IT COMES TO PASS THIS DEEP?
AND QUITE A SRN USA TROF IS OUTLOOKED TWD CHRISTMAS BUT ITS
DISMANTLED BEFORE BECOMING A BIG PLAYER HERE...STAY TUNED...THE
PATH IS PAVE DANMD WITH NO BIG CHANGES YET IN THE PNA/NAO...WE'LL
ROLL WITH CONTINUITY ON STRONG STORMS HERE.
SKYWARN IS ACTIVATED FOR 4PM SUNDAY.
BELOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON FCST PKG...
SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA BY AROUND NOON...REACH THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TOWARD
EVENING. INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY SNOW
INITIALLY. EXPECT TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE
COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE DUE EAST. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT THE SAME TIME WARM MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH...ATTEMPTING TO CHANGE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
18Z GFS KEEPS THIS ALL SNOW NW FRANKLIN CTY AND NW CHESHIRE CTY WITH
MAYBE 2-3 HRS OF SLEET NR 12Z MONDAY. IF SO...2 FT IN HIGH TERRAIN
THERE. ELSEWHERE WARM AIR MAY COME IN ALOFT TO CHANGE THE PCPN IN
THIS REGION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT IT WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EXTENDING TO
AROUND WORCESTER AREA. VERY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. WE ARE GOING WITH 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS REGION.
WARMER MID LEVEL AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE FALLEN. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING...BUT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THEN.
THE HARDEST PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.
SNOW WILL FALL VERY HEAVY...BUT AN EASTERLY WIND THIS TIME OF YEAR
WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA FOR
4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN AT NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S.
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST...A
FEW QUICK INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE A QUICK CHANGE TO
RAIN. TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY SOAR TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AS
MUCH WARMER AIR FLOODS IN OFF THE ATLANTIC.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING NOREASTER. HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN RESIDE
FOR A SHORT WHILE TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. JET
STREAM TAKES A DIP SOUTH SPAWNING YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
COASTAL STORMS SLATED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MID WEEK. THIS
NOREASTER LOOKS MUCH WARMER THAN PREDECESSORS AND LACKING A GOOD COLD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. SO FOR MID WEEK MORE OF A SOAKER
ON TAP. FREEZING RAIN COULD BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWER
THICKNESSES CRASH ON WRAP AROUND WHILE WARMER AIR LAGS ALOFT. ON
FRIDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SHORT LIVED FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. WILL GO WITH
SEAS AROUND 20 FT...WHICH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE. ALSO...
HAVE BROUGHT UP WINDS TO STORM FORCE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING AFTERNOON INTO MON ZNS 2>3, ADVISORY 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON TO THE NORTHWEST OF
BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEAST, HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON ALL ZONES
MARINE...STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MUCH OF THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A VERY STRONG GALE
$$
NEAR AND SHORT TERM...MMC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FRANK/DRAG
LONG TERM AND AVIATION...KAB/DRAG
FXUS61 KBOX 140937
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
WE WILL KEEP ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AS IS FOR THIS MORNING'S FORECAST.
ETA HAS COME AROUND AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE OUR MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS
EVENT. WE EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
MON MORNING...WHICH CLIMATOLOGICALLY PLACES SOUTHWEST NH AND
NORTHWEST MA INTO THE HEAVIEST SNOW. IT STILL APPEARS THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL GET AS FAR INLAND AS PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON TONIGHT...AND MAY
EVEN REACH INTO HARTFORD...WORCESTER AND NASHUA FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH COLD AIR LOCKED IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD DE
DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN.
SNOW HAS ALREADY SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ETA/GFS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE SNOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GFS
IS MUCH FASTER AND HAS SNOW INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHILE ETA HOLDS IT OFF TILL LATE IN THE DAY. DESPITE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS...WE THINK THE ETA IS A BIT TOO
SLOW AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS GFS (BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST). THIS
MEANS SNOW GETS INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO RI/EASTERN
MA BY MID AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME HEAVY SHORTLY AFTER IT
BEGINS. CSI/CI BANDING POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE AND CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS ALSO SUGGEST A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER...SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2-4" PER HOUR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW MOST OF THE SNOWFALL ON THE FRONT END OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND TAPER THE PRECIPITATION OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT IN
OUR NW ZONES WHICH REMAIN UNDER STRONG FORCING MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CURRENT ACCUMULATIONS LOOK GOOD AND WE WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THEM AT
THIS TIME...AS MUCH AS 2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT. WE DON'T THINK TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH TO ADD
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED. BASED UPON EARLIER DISCUSSIONS WITH
NERFC...FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS COULD OCCUR WITH RAINFALL OVER
2"...BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT OCCURRING TO ISSUE ANY
FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
THE OTHER CONCERN NEAR THE COAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION TONIGHT DUE TO WARMING
ALOFT...BUT GUSTS WELL INTO THE 40S ARE LIKELY. WE WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF COASTAL MA AND RI SINCE WE ARE MOST
CONFIDENT IN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM MON.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
EVENTUALLY ENDING OUR PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
MOVE NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM CARRIES THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ONCE MORE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THE STORM WILL
BE ALL SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL STEADILY LOWER TODAY...TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
QUICKLY TO IFR AS THE SNOW ARRIVES. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
PERSIST TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING MON.
&&
.MARINE...
WE ARE ISSUING STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE POSTED. WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH 45-50KT GUSTS LIKELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND
MORE LIKE 40-45KT CLOSER TO LAND. GALES PERSIST MON THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>4.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...BELK
FXUS61 KBOX 141848
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE 1 THRU 06Z SECTION AT THE TOP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
WE WILL UPDATE THIS DIAGNOSTIC TOOL ASM SOON AS WE HAVE WHAT WE FEEL
IS USEFUL INFO ON MODEL DEVIATIONS AND OR ENHANCEMENT CUES.
THRU 06Z...WE ARE RUNNING WITH 12Z/14 GFS 850-700 1545K FOR THE S TO
IP/ZR LINE INTERIOR AND RAIN COAST. THE ETA LOOKS WOEFULLY TOO WARM
IN THIS LAYER AT 18Z. AND THE GFS 6 HR QPF FROM THE 12Z/14 RUN IS
SUPERIOR TO THE ETA WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCT SWE NOT MELTED BY SOME
ASOS'S AND THE GENERAL AXIS OF THE .25 AND .50 QPF. ETA WAS SUPERIOR
ON MAX AMT VCNTY ORF.
DECISION MAKING OFF OF ONLY THESE TWO NECEP MODELS(WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT THE CANADIAN/SUMM5 ETC AS FAST WE CAN AFTER OUR CURRENT 1PM
EVENING SPINUP)
R/S/ICE CHG WILL AT 00Z RUN FROM ROUGHLY PYM-SFZ-HFD SPREADING TO
THE NH/MA BORDER AT 06Z! PLS NOTE WE ARE USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925
MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-12Z...SNOW TO ICE AND NO RAIN VNCTY
BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
REMAINDER BLO UNCHANGED 130 PM.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WHERE POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT
THE 12Z ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC
BANDS FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>4.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 141917
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE 1 THRU 06Z SECTION AT THE TOP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
147 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
THIS DIAGNOSTIC SHARING TOOL WILL BE UPDATEDB AS SOON AS WE HAVE
WHAT WE FEEL IS USEFUL INFO ON MODEL DEVIATIONS AND OR ENHANCEMENT
CUES.
SECTION THRU 06Z/15...
CSI: WE BLV FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN AND
THAT WHILE BETTER SNOW BLITZ OCCURS TO OUR NW IN VT AND NYS
THIS AFTN AND EVE... WE WILL SEE 1/4S+ AND 2/HR. MUCH OF THE
FA. ALSO THUNDER IS STILL IN THE CARDS. EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS E OF CAPE MAY IN THE R+ PLUME YOU SEE ON
RADAR...PROB BTWN 21Z-23Z.
PNS: YOU HAVE SEEN 4.5 AT NYC NOW. AVN SNOW ALG WAY UNDERDONE!
E HFD 2" IN 75 MIN AND WST 1.3" IN 75 MIN! WE'RE ROLLING.
MODELS AND R/S LINE: WE ARE RUNNING WITH 12Z/14 GFS 850-700 1545K
FOR THE S TO IP/ZR LINE INTERIOR AND RAIN COAST. THE ETA LOOKS
WOEFULLY TOO WARM IN THIS LAYER AT 18Z. AND THE GFS 6 HR QPF FROM THE
12Z/14 RUN IS SUPERIOR TO THE ETA WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCT SWE NOT
MELTED BY SOME ASOS'S AND THE GENERAL AXIS OF THE .25 AND .50 QPF.
ETA WAS SUPERIOR ON MAX AMT VCNTY ORF.
DECISION MAKING OFF OF ONLY THESE TWO NCEP MODELS(WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT THE CANADIAN/SUMM5 ETC AS FAST WE CAN AFTER OUR CURRENT 1PM
EVENING SPINUP)
R/S/ICE CHG WILL AT 00Z RUN FROM ROUGHLY PYM-SFZ-HFD SPREADING TO
THE NH/MA BORDER AT 06Z! PLS NOTE WE ARE USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925
MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-12Z...SNOW TO ICE AND NO RAIN VNCTY
BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
WIND...HEADLINES FOR WIND WILL BE DONE ONLY TONIGHT ON THIS SHIFT.
THE MID SHIFT WILL TAKE CARE OF PROBABLE REISSUANCE OF WIND
HEADLINES FOR MON (ESP CC AND ISLANDS LATE DAY WHERE GUSTS OF 45
KT EXPECTED)
REMAINDER BLO UNCHANGED 130 PM.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WHERE POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT
THE 12Z ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC
BANDS FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>4.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 141935
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE 3 THRU 06Z SECTION AT THE TOP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
THIS DIAGNOSTIC SHARING TOOL WILL BE UPDATEDB AS SOON AS WE HAVE
WHAT WE FEEL IS USEFUL INFO ON MODEL DEVIATIONS AND OR ENHANCEMENT
CUES.
SECTION THRU 06Z/15...
PNSBOX IS POSTED. STORM IS HAPPENING NOW!
WSW...ADVY EXPANDED SWD TO EWB-WST THRU 6PM ONLY FOR 3-6" BASED ON
RADAR AND CURRENT OBS/TEMPS. LEAVING BID OUT. ALSO... NOTHING YET
FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
CSI: WE BLV FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTN AND
THAT WHILE BETTER SNOW BLITZ OCCURS TO OUR NW IN VT AND NYS
THIS AFTN AND EVE... WE WILL SEE 1/4S+ AND 2/HR. MUCH OF THE
FA. ALSO THUNDER IS STILL IN THE CARDS. EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS E OF CAPE MAY IN THE R+ PLUME YOU SEE ON
RADAR...PROB BTWN 21Z-23Z.
PNS: YOU HAVE SEEN 4.5 AT NYC 1PM. 5" AT FARMINGDALE! IP AT JFK
1904Z. AVN SNOW ALG WAY UNDERDONE! E HFD 2" IN 75 MIN AND WST
1.3" IN 75 MIN!
MODELS AND R/S LINE: WE ARE RUNNING WITH 12Z/14 GFS 850-700 1545K
FOR THE S TO IP/ZR LINE INTERIOR AND RAIN COAST. THE ETA LOOKS
WOEFULLY TOO WARM IN THIS LAYER AT 18Z. AND THE GFS 6 HR QPF FROM THE
12Z/14 RUN IS SUPERIOR TO THE ETA WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCT SWE NOT
MELTED BY SOME ASOS'S AND THE GENERAL AXIS OF THE .25 AND .50 QPF.
ETA WAS SUPERIOR ON MAX AMT VCNTY ORF.
DECISION MAKING OFF OF ONLY THESE TWO NCEP MODELS(WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT THE CANADIAN/SUMM5 ETC AS FAST WE CAN AFTER OUR CURRENT 1PM
EVENING SPINUP)
R/S/ICE CHG WILL AT 00Z RUN FROM ROUGHLY PYM-SFZ-HFD SPREADING TO
THE NH/MA BORDER AT 06Z! PLS NOTE WE ARE USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925
MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-12Z...SNOW TO ICE AND NO RAIN VNCTY
BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
WIND...HEADLINES FOR WIND WILL BE DONE ONLY TONIGHT ON THIS SHIFT.
THE MID SHIFT WILL TAKE CARE OF PROBABLE REISSUANCE OF WIND
HEADLINES FOR MON (ESP CC AND ISLANDS LATE DAY WHERE GUSTS OF 45
KT EXPECTED)
REMAINDER BLO UNCHANGED 130 PM.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WHERE POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT
THE 12Z ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC
BANDS FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>7.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 142053
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE 4 THRU 06Z SECTION AT THE TOP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH IMPACT SHORT DURATION SNOW DUMP.
THIS DIAGNOSTIC SHARING TOOL WILL BE UPDATED AS SOON AS WE HAVE WHAT
WE FEEL IS USEFUL INFO ON MODEL DEVIATIONS AND OR ENHANCEMENT CUES.
SECTION THRU 06Z/15...
PNSBOX IS POSTED.
WSW...ADVY EXPANDED SWD TO EWB-WST THRU 6PM ONLY FOR 3-6" BASED ON
RADAR AND CURRENT OBS/TEMPS. LEFT BID OUT. ALSO... NOTHING YET FOR
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
RADAR: WE THE TGHE DRY SLOT MOVG NWD BEHIND ONE BAND OF FRONTOGENTIC
FORCING ARCSYR PSF BID. ODD E-W STRIATIONS ACROSS SNJ 345
PM. G43 KT AT OXB...OCEAN CITY MD...
CSI: WE BLV FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE AFTN AND
THAT WHILE BETTER SNOW BLITZ OCCURS TO OUR NW IN VT AND NYS
THIS AFTN AND EVE... WE WILL SEE 1/4S+ AND 2/HR. MAINLY MA PIKE
AREA. ALSO THUNDER IS STILL IN THE CARDS. EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT
OF TSTMS E OF CAPE MAY IN THE R+ PLUME YOU SEE ON RADAR...PROB
BTWN 21Z-23Z.
PNS: APPARENTLY WDSPRD 3-6" OKX AREA PRIOR TO CHG OVR.
MODELS AND R/S LINE: WE ARE RUNNING WITH 12Z/14 GFS 850-700 1545K
FOR THE S TO IP/ZR LINE INTERIOR AND RAIN COAST. THE ETA LOOKS
WOEFULLY TOO WARM IN THIS LAYER AT 18Z. AND THE GFS 6 HR QPF FROM THE
12Z/14 RUN IS SUPERIOR TO THE ETA WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCT SWE NOT
MELTED BY SOME ASOS'S AND THE GENERAL AXIS OF THE .25 AND .50 QPF.
ETA WAS SUPERIOR ON MAX AMT VCNTY ORF.
DECISION MAKING OFF OF ONLY THESE TWO NCEP MODELS. WE HAVE SPOT
CK'D THE SUMM5... LOOKS TOO COLD TOO LONG. 18Z ETA STILL LO0OKS TOO
WARM ADN FOR THAT MODEL WE'RE USING THE 1556K FOR 850-700 FOR S TO
R/ICE CHG. BOTTOM LINE...TIMES LISTED BLO ARE THE LATEST FOR A
CHANGOVR. CONCERNED ABT AN HR SOONER.
R/S/ICE CHG WILL AT 00Z RUN FROM ROUGHLY PYM-SFZ-HFD SPREADING TO
THE NH/MA BORDER AT 06Z! PLS NOTE WE ARE USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925
MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-12Z...SNOW TO ICE AND NO RAIN VNCTY
BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
WIND...HEADLINES FOR WIND WILL BE DONE ONLY TONIGHT ON THIS SHIFT.
THE MID SHIFT WILL TAKE CARE OF PROBABLE REISSUANCE OF WIND
HEADLINES FOR MON (ESP CC AND ISLANDS LATE DAY WHERE GUSTS OF 45
KT EXPECTED)
REMAINDER BLO UNCHANGED 130 PM.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
WHERE POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT
THE 12Z ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
COOLER SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC
BANDS FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>7.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 142254
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
554 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH IMPACT SHORT DURATION SNOW DUMP TRANSITIONS TO ICE INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AND A WIND SWEPT RAIN ON THE COAST.
PNSBOX POSTED.
NOW...TEMPERATURES RISING STEADILY IN CT/RI. THIS DRY SLOT HAS
ALLOWED THE WARMING TO BE EFFECTIVE AND CHG SNOW TO MXD
FREEZING/FROZEN. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE NEXT BURST WILL BE MXD
SLEET/FRZG RAIN IN THE INTERIOR OF CT RI AND THAT CURRENT SLEET MA
PIKE REGION OF SW NH COULD CHANGE BACK TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF HEAVY
SNOW IN MA ARD 7 OR 8 PM BEFORE GOING ON TO SLEET/ZR.
COMPLETE PHASE CHANGE FROM S TO ICE/R AT 00Z WILL RUN FROM ROUGHLY
PYM-SFZ-HFD SPREADING TO THE NH/MA BORDER AT 06Z! PLS NOTE WE ARE
USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925 MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-12Z...SNOW TO
ICE AND NO RAIN VCNTY BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
SNOW AMOUNTS...TRIMMED SLIGHTLY EVERYWHERE FROM BOS-BDL NWD EXCEPT
CHESHIRE AND FRANKLIN GROUP WHERE WE THINK PRIOR RANGES CONT TO LOOK
VERY GOOD....ESP CONSIDERING POTENTIAL BACKLASH OF SNOW AND WIND
MONDAY MORNING DAYBREAK WHERE TRAVEL DELAYS ARE EXPECTED.
WIND...HEADLINES FOR WIND WILL BE DONE ONLY TONIGHT ON THIS SHIFT.
THE MID SHIFT WILL TAKE CARE OF PROBABLE REISSUANCE OF WIND HEADLINES
FOR MON (ESP CC AND ISLANDS LATE DAY WHERE GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED).
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WHERE
POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT THE 12Z
ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE COOLER
SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC BANDS
FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY STORM LOOKS LIKE RAIN WITH WRAPROUND CHILL POSSIBLY ENDING
IT AS FREEZING OR FRZN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW LIKELY POPS.
AN APPARENTLY NICE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>24.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>7.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 5>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 150019
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
718 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH IMPACT SHORT DURATION SNOW DUMP TRANSITIONS TO ICE INTERIOR
THIS EVENING AND A WIND SWEPT RAIN ON THE COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED BID/CC/MVY AND ACK. SUSTAINED 36 KT AND
G50 AT ACY 2324Z PLUS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PROMPTED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR A PULSE OF VRY STRONG ELY WIND BTWN 01Z AND 05Z.
PNSBOX WILL REPOST SHORTLY WITH NUMEROUS 3-6" REPS.
NOW...TEMPERATURES RISING STEADILY IN CT/RI. THIS DRY SLOT HAS
ALLOWED THE WARMING TO BE EFFECTIVE AND CHG SNOW TO MXD
FREEZING/FROZEN. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE NEXT BURST WILL BE MXD
SLEET/FRZG RAIN IN THE INTERIOR OF CT RI AND THAT CURRENT SLEET MA
PIKE REGION OF SW NH COULD CHANGE BACK TO AN HOUR OR TWO OF HEAVY
SNOW IN MA ARD 8 PM BEFORE GOING ON TO SLEET/ZR 03Z.
PLS NOTE WE ARE USING ETA TEMPS AOB 925 MB...FAR SUPERIOR ON CAD 06Z-
12Z...SNOW TO ICE AND NO RAIN VCNTY BDL-MHT LINE NWWD!
SNOW AMOUNTS...TRIMMED SLIGHTLY EVERYWHERE FROM BOS-BDL NWD EXCEPT
CHESHIRE AND FRANKLIN GROUP WHERE WE THINK PRIOR RANGES CONT TO LOOK
VERY GOOD....ESP CONSIDERING POTENTIAL BACKLASH OF SNOW AND WIND
MONDAY MORNING DAYBREAK WHERE TRAVEL DELAYS ARE EXPECTED.
WIND...HEADLINES FOR WIND WILL BE DONE ONLY TONIGHT ON THIS SHIFT.
THE MID SHIFT WILL TAKE CARE OF PROBABLE REISSUANCE OF WIND HEADLINES
FOR MON (ESP CC AND ISLANDS LATE DAY WHERE GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED).
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HERE IS A QUICK FIRST LOOK AT OUR THINKING...
MORE TO COME LATER. FOR NOW...KEEPING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WHERE
POSTED. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER IN LOW LAYERS BUT THE 12Z
ETA LOOKS COOLER. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE COOLER
SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT. WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY FRONTOGENIC BANDS
FOR NW AREAS AS WELL AS ANY COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED UPWARD MOTION
SUGGEST THAT OUR PRIOR FORECAST OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ON FRONT END
STILL LOOKS GOOD. SLEET MAY MIX IN SOON ENOUGH TO DAMPEN TOTALS BDL-
ORH CORRIDOR A LITTLE FROM FORECAST BUT CURRENT FORECAST STILL WELL
WITHIN MARGIN OF ERROR AND HAVE COLD AIR ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WELL
IN PLACE AT OUTSET. SNOW GROWTH FAVORS SUSTAINED VERY HEAVY SNOW SW
NH AND NORTHERN MA...AND BACK ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
SNOW GROWTH ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR A TIME NE MA...S CENTRAL MA THRU
NW CT...BUT CORE SLIDES BELOW BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION WITH TIME
THIS EVE.
MAY SEE SOME SLEET MIXING ALL THE WAY TO AFN - N OF BAF LINE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR COMES BACK AROUND.
SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY ON BACK SIDE WRAPAROUND MAINLY SW NH AND
N/NE MA.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY STORM LOOKS LIKE RAIN WITH WRAPROUND CHILL POSSIBLY ENDING
IT AS FREEZING OR FRZN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW LIKELY POPS.
AN APPARENTLY NICE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR RI DUE TO SNOWFALL RATES...
AND PENDING FOR BOS.
&&
.MARINE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WILL HAVE MORE LATER.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2-3.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 13>19.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>21
...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT MA 22>24
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ZONES 1>7.
...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT RI8 BID.
...WIND ADVY TONIGHT RI5>7
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...JACKSON
SHORT TERM...THOMPSON/DRAG
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 150208
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
908 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.SHORT TERM...
WILL DROP ADVYS I95 SEWD AT 10 PM.
TRIM A FEW AMTS BDL-ORH BUT ICE IS POSSIBLY A PBLM...SO WE KEEP THE
WARNINGS.
WRAPAROUND SNOW LIKELY MONDAY MORNING.
NOTE THE SWOMCD ON APPARENT GWAVE INITIATION PER SPC WHICH YOU CAN
SEE ON RADAR IS NOW TRANSITING OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
CSI WAS NOT QUITE AS BAD AS EXPECTED BUT DID OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN.
BASICALLY WAS A BAND OF 1"HR WITH A FEW 2"/75 MIN REPS.
STILL ROUGH OUT THERE FOR THE NXT FEW HOURS.
HIGH WIND WARNING CONTD BID/CC/MVY AND ACK AND WIND ADVY REST OF
COAST. WATCH THE BACKLASH WIND OF 38-48KT MON AFTN...ESP SE
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
PNSBOX FOR AMTS.
2" OF SLEET IN 2 HOURS AT N AMHERST!
LOGAN 4.4 THRU 7PM
TF GREEN 3.6 THRU 7PM
WE'LL PUBLISH ALL THIS AS TIME ALLOWS.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY STORM LOOKS LIKE RAIN WITH WRAPROUND CHILL POSSIBLY ENDING
IT AS FREEZING OR FRZN ON THURSDAY. FOR NOW LIKELY POPS.
AN APPARENTLY NICE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR INTO MON MORNING. AWW OUT FOR WIND.
&&
.MARINE...
STORM ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE BOS HARB NARR BAY CONT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO MON ZONES 2-3 FOR ICE THEN SNOW.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ZONE 4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO MON ZONES 2>12-26.
...WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 7-14>16-19>21
...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT MA 22>24
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT RI8 BID.
...WIND ADVY TONIGHT RI5>7
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO MON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALE WARNING FOR BOSTON
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
$$
NEAR TERM...MMC
SHORT TERM...MMC/DRAG
LONG TERM...BUTTRICK
FXUS61 KBOX 150802
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
WE ARE CURRENTLY WORKING OUT THE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL UPDATE THIS DISCUSSION WITH MORE
INFORMATION LATER. OUR INITIAL THINKING ON WATCHES...WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES APPEARS BELOW.
.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH SUN
WE GET A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF COASTAL
STORMS TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GETS UNDERWAY
TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS 00Z RUN
MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...SO IT IS OUR
MODEL OF CHOICE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS NEXT COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS
STORMS AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY UP THE CT
VALLEY OR PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WORCESTER. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SO
MUCH WARM AIR WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM TO ENSURE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND
SPREAD E DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...MORE
OR LESS ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY W AND N OF OUR AREA. WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING JUST YET...GIVEN FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW LIFTS N INTO CANADA AND DEEPENS FURTHER...WE COME
UNDER AN INCREASING W FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/HIGH WINDS WED NIGHT AND THU...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOS SHOW
50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE BEYOND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES AND ALLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
TO FOLLOW LATER.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN STRONG GALES FOR
NOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN LATER FORECASTS IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 2-3.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 2>4-8>10.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 5-6-12.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>24-26.
...HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING ZONES 22-24.
RI...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 1>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
FXUS61 KBOX 150841
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH NORTH ACROSS CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING ALONE FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MORE
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE POSTED FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 45 DEGREE WATER COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS OF 50 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH SUN
WE GET A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF COASTAL
STORMS TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GETS UNDERWAY
TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS 00Z RUN
MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...SO IT IS OUR
MODEL OF CHOICE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS NEXT COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS
STORMS AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY UP THE CT
VALLEY OR PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WORCESTER. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SO
MUCH WARM AIR WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM TO ENSURE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND
SPREAD E DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...MORE
OR LESS ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY W AND N OF OUR AREA. WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING JUST YET...GIVEN FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW LIFTS N INTO CANADA AND DEEPENS FURTHER...WE COME
UNDER AN INCREASING W FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/HIGH WINDS WED NIGHT AND THU...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOS SHOW
50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE BEYOND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES AND ALLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
TO FOLLOW LATER.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN STRONG GALES FOR
NOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN LATER FORECASTS IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 2-3.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 2>4-8>10.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 5-6-12.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>24-26.
...HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING ZONES 22-24.
RI...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 1>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
FXUS61 KBOX 150851
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH NORTH ACROSS CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING ALONE FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MORE
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE POSTED FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 45 DEGREE WATER COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS OF 50 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH SUN
WE GET A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF COASTAL
STORMS TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GETS UNDERWAY
TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS 00Z RUN
MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...SO IT IS OUR
MODEL OF CHOICE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS NEXT COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS
STORMS AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY UP THE CT
VALLEY OR PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WORCESTER. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SO
MUCH WARM AIR WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM TO ENSURE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND
SPREAD E DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...MORE
OR LESS ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY W AND N OF OUR AREA. WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING JUST YET...GIVEN FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW LIFTS N INTO CANADA AND DEEPENS FURTHER...WE COME
UNDER AN INCREASING W FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/HIGH WINDS WED NIGHT AND THU...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOS SHOW
50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE BEYOND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES AND ALLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR AS WE LOSE CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN STRONG GALES FOR
NOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN LATER FORECASTS IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONE 2.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONE 3.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 2>4-8>11-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 5-6-12.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>24-26.
...HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING ZONES 22-24.
RI...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 1>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 11-12-15.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
FXUS61 KBOX 151107
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
605 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW IS NEARING THE
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. MOST OF IT IS LOW TOPPED...AND
PROBABLY WON'T SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO
DROP OFF ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL DO THE SAME NEAR THE COAST
ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO N OR NW THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH NORTH ACROSS CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING ALONE FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MORE
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE POSTED FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 45 DEGREE WATER COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS OF 50 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH SUN
WE GET A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF COASTAL
STORMS TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GETS UNDERWAY
TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS 00Z RUN
MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...SO IT IS OUR
MODEL OF CHOICE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS NEXT COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS
STORMS AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY UP THE CT
VALLEY OR PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WORCESTER. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SO
MUCH WARM AIR WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM TO ENSURE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND
SPREAD E DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...MORE
OR LESS ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY W AND N OF OUR AREA. WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING JUST YET...GIVEN FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW LIFTS N INTO CANADA AND DEEPENS FURTHER...WE COME
UNDER AN INCREASING W FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/HIGH WINDS WED NIGHT AND THU...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOS SHOW
50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE BEYOND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES AND ALLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR AS WE LOSE CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN STRONG GALES FOR
NOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN LATER FORECASTS IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONE 2.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONE 3.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 2>4-8>11-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 5-6-12.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>24-26.
...HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING ZONES 22-24.
RI...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 1>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 11-12-15.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
FXUS61 KBOX 151323
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
825 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
DID AN UPDATE TO ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AND MENTION PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED IN NORTHWEST MASS. WILL ALSO ADDRESS
THIS IN AN UPDATED WSW.
/KAB
***PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT
WE JUST SENT AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STEADIER PRECIPITATION MOVING OFFSHORE. SURFACE LOW IS NEARING THE
ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL BE DEALING WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. MOST OF IT IS LOW TOPPED...AND PROBABLY
WON'T SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO DROP OFF
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WILL DO THE SAME NEAR THE COAST ONCE WINDS
SHIFT TO N OR NW THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD IS EXPECTED TO
MARCH NORTH ACROSS CAPE COD INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF ICING THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING ALONE FOR NOW.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...MORE
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE POSTED FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR THIS EVENING.
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE 45 DEGREE WATER COULD RESULT
IN GUSTS OF 50 KT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS.
.LONG TERM...
TUE THROUGH SUN
WE GET A SHORT RESPITE FROM THE SEEMINGLY ENDLESS SERIES OF COASTAL
STORMS TUE...AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
BUT WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY GETS UNDERWAY
TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES.
GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ITS 00Z RUN
MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...SO IT IS OUR
MODEL OF CHOICE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS NEXT COASTAL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GATHER STRENGTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD TRACK MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS
STORMS AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY UP THE CT
VALLEY OR PERHAPS AS FAR E AS WORCESTER. EITHER WAY...THERE IS SO
MUCH WARM AIR WRAPPED UP INTO THIS SYSTEM TO ENSURE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK WED AND
SPREAD E DURING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NIGHT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE CT RIVER VALLEY...MORE
OR LESS ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. MORE SIGNIFICANT DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY W AND N OF OUR AREA. WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING JUST YET...GIVEN FACT
THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT WARM UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL.
AS THE LOW LIFTS N INTO CANADA AND DEEPENS FURTHER...WE COME
UNDER AN INCREASING W FLOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/HIGH WINDS WED NIGHT AND THU...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR BOS SHOW
50KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON.
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE BEYOND FRI...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN STATES AND ALLOWS FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FURTHER TO VFR AS WE LOSE CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE ON
MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WED NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN STRONG GALES FOR
NOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM THU. WE MAY NEED TO BUMP UP WINDS TO STORM
FORCE IN LATER FORECASTS IF GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONE 2.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONE 3.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 2>4-8>11-26.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING ZONES 5-6-12.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 2>24-26.
...HIGH WIND WATCH THIS EVENING ZONES 22-24.
RI...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 1>8.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS MORNING ZONES 11-12-15.
...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ZONES 11-12-15.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
FXUS61 KBOX 152303
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
600 PM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING EXCELLENT NOT ONLY EXCELLENT SUSTAINED WINDS
BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF FAR
EASTERN PART OF AREA. WILL LET MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
WITH ISSUANCE OF NEXT ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL EXTEND IT
FROM MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE...TO BOSTON...TO MARTHAS VINEYARD.
WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...DRYING AND DVV ON TAP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS/UKMET/ETA/
DIFFER REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS HERE INCLUDING
AND FOREMOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SEEN WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 140-150 KT JET STREAK AT 250
MILLIBARS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT 850 MILLIBARS. NOSE OF THE 850 AND 700 MILLIBAR JET MAXIMUMS
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 70 KTS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG GULF CONNECTION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRACKING UP THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN
1.0 AND 1.25 G/KG. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ETA HAS BECOME SLOWER. AT THIS TIME HAVE
PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THEREAFTER THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF IN EASTERN CANADA. THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINS A COOLER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GEM/NOGAPS AND MRF
AGREE ON AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
ADDED A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES DOMINANT AFTER THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE FORECAST AREA.
.HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL EASILY REACH ONE TO ONE AND
A HALF INCHES. CURRENTLY LEFTOVER STORM WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE 2
INCHES OR LESS FROM INHERITED SNOWPACK...THOUGH SOMWEHAT HIGHER
TOTALS WERE MEASURED OVER INTERIOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY NEAR THE ASSABET
RIVER. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL TO CAUSE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
JET THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS TWO TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...THOUGH PLACEMENT OF
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL DEPEND EXACTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF FROM
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES IN STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE AN ESFBOX HIGHLIGHTING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG MOST OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BLOW 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 KT AND 60 KT NEAR THE
COAST.
.TIDES...GOOD NEWS IS THAT TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE STORM SURGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASHOVER AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING STORM SURGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP STORM WARNINGS UP FOR OUTER EASTERN WATERS AND CAPE COD
BAY FOR TONIGHT.
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN THE WIND AND GUSTS...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM...NS
FXUS61 KBOX 152307
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
600 PM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING EXCELLENT NOT ONLY EXCELLENT SUSTAINED WINDS
BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ACROSS MUCH OF FAR
EASTERN PART OF AREA. WILL LET MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE
WITH ISSUANCE OF NEXT ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT WILL EXTEND IT
FROM MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE...TO BOSTON...TO MARTHAS VINEYARD.
WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
OTHERWISE...DRYING AND DVV ON TAP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE GFS/UKMET/ETA/
DIFFER REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT.
THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT HEADS UP THE COAST AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS HERE INCLUDING
AND FOREMOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING. THERE IS IMPRESSIVE
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE SEEN WITH AN APPROXIMATELY 140-150 KT JET STREAK AT 250
MILLIBARS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT 850 MILLIBARS. NOSE OF THE 850 AND 700 MILLIBAR JET MAXIMUMS
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT NIGHT WITH WINDS AROUND 70 KTS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A STRONG GULF CONNECTION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TRACKING UP THE COAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN
1.0 AND 1.25 G/KG. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE GUSTS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ETA HAS BECOME SLOWER. AT THIS TIME HAVE
PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THEREAFTER THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF IN EASTERN CANADA. THE FORECAST AREA
MAINTAINS A COOLER AND DRIER WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GEM/NOGAPS AND MRF
AGREE ON AN ALBERTA CLIPPER CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
ADDED A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES DOMINANT AFTER THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THE FORECAST AREA.
.HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL EASILY REACH ONE TO ONE AND
A HALF INCHES. CURRENTLY LEFTOVER STORM WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE 2
INCHES OR LESS FROM INHERITED SNOWPACK...THOUGH SOMWEHAT HIGHER
TOTALS WERE MEASURED OVER INTERIOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY NEAR THE ASSABET
RIVER. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAINFALL TO CAUSE URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING PROBLEMS. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
JET THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS TWO TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...THOUGH PLACEMENT OF
THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL DEPEND EXACTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONCERN IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF FROM
HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES IN STREAMS AND
TRIBUTARIES. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE AN ESFBOX HIGHLIGHTING THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.WINDS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG MOST OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BLOW 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 KT AND 60 KT NEAR THE
COAST.
.TIDES...GOOD NEWS IS THAT TIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. CONCERN HOWEVER WILL BE STORM SURGE AND
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASHOVER AT TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING INCLUDING STORM SURGE IN LATER MODEL RUNS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP STORM WARNINGS UP FOR OUTER EASTERN WATERS AND CAPE COD
BAY FOR TONIGHT. STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN THE WIND AND GUSTS...VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ZONES 6>7-14>19-23
HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ZONES 22-24
RI...NONE.
NH...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 12.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT GALES FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM...NS
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