NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
               2006122500 to 2006123123


FXUS65 KBOU 251046
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
345 AM MST MON DEC 25 2006
.SHORT TERM...STG NWLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A UPR WAVE EJECTING FM THE PAC NW.  AT THIS TIME...
WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND STG RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE MTN VALLEYS THIS MRNG.
BUT AM EXPECTING WINDS TO INCRS AND MIX DOWN WELL DUE TO SOME SUN
THIS AFTN AND SUBSIDENCE ALG FNT RANGE.  TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL
INTO THE 40S ALG THE FNT RANGE WITH 30S EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS.
SOME BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN...WL INCRS THE WINDS SOME
IN THE FNT RANGE IN UPCOMING FCST.  TNGT...MSTR WL INCRS IN THE MID
LVLS ENUF TO ALLOW FOR SOME LGT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHWRS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.  WL KEEP THE ISOLD POPS GOING ABV 9000 FEET. TEMPS TNGT WL
BE AT LEAST 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NGT DUE TO SOME CLDS AND
NWLY WNDS.
.LONG TERM...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON TUE
AND THEN BECOME MORE SWLY ON WED AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS ON TUE HOWEVER WITH RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS BELIEVE PCPN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.  OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE.  BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW STG
WARMING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ON TUE AS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER WITH LINGERING SNOW COVER TEMPS WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE SHOWS WHICH HAS READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO FOR TUE AFTN.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.  FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED
CROSS-SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS
WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING LAPSE RATES.  HOWEVER WITH 700 MB FLOW
BECOMING MORE SWLY BY WED OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT SO WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCT CATEGORY.  OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BOTH GFS AND
NAM SHOW SOME COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ON WED AND WITH
LINGERING SNOW COVER TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUE.
FOR THU AND FRI ONCE AGAIN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM.  LATEST
GFS IS NOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN AND HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SERN CO BY THU WHILE ECMWF HAS THE LOW MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH OVER SRN NEW MEXICO.  MEANWHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUCH AS NOGAPS FAVORS ECMWF SOLUTION WHILE CANADIAN MODEL IS
A COMPROMISE AS IT HAS LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE LATEST DGEX
SUPPORTS CURRENT GFS SOLUTION.  ENSEMBLE DATA FROM GFS IS NOT MUCH
BETTER AS IT HAS VARYING SOLUTIONS AS WELL.  THUS AT THIS POINT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ANY MODEL SOLUTION REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.
ONE THING THAT ALL MODELS SHOW IS A PRETTY STG COLD FRONT AFFECTING
NRN CO THU INTO THU NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA.  EVEN IF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENDS UP FURTHER SOUTH LIKE EMCWF
AND NOGAPS SHOW PROBABLY WILL SEE SOME SNOW OCCUR AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NERN CO.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPS FOR THU AND FRI AND INCREASE POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR THU INTO FRI.  IF MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES END UP
FURTHER NORTH LIKE GFS...DGEX AND CANADIAN MODEL SHOW THEN COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CO THU INTO THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
046/RPK

FXUS65 KBOU 252139
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
240 PM MST MON DEC 25 2006
.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER ALSO INCREASES BY 06Z WITH 30-35KTS OF
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW. SANGSTER HI WIND FORECAST MODEL YIELDS LOW
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 60 KTS. THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASE THE VALUES A BIT OVER
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS STABLE LAYER DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS DISTRICT
OVERNIGHT.  MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP
WITH WEAK QG DESCENT. WITH POOR OROGRAPHICS AND MEAGER LAPSE
RATES...WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT.
ON TUESDAY...LATEST CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BETTER MOISTURE DEPTH BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEAK QG ASCENT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN
POOR...OROGRAPHICS IMPROVE AND WILL REINTRODUCE MOUNTAIN POPS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS STABLE LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AND
CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASES TO 40 KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP.  NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS AT THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF SUBSIDENCE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER MOST AREAS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND WIND. HOWEVER...LOW LYING AREAS WILL REMAIN COLD UNDER
INVERSION. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
TONIGHT AND ZONE 43 TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...TUE NGT-THU...MDLS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT WINTR STRM EVENT FOR ERN SLPS FM THU INTO FRI.  EVEN THE
ECMWF WHICH HAD THE SYS MOVG MUCH FRTHR S IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS
AND NAM SOLUTIONS.  MDLS DIG PAC NW UPR TROF ACRS GRT BASIN AND
CLOSE SYS OFF NR 4 CRNRS BY 12Z THU...THEN MOVE UPR LO ACRS NRN NM
DURING DAY ON THU INTO THU NGT.  STG DYNAMICS WITH SYS ALG WITH GUD
UPWRD Q-G OMEGA ON WED NGT AND THU.  DEEP UPSLP FLO AGAINST ERN SLP
MTNS WUD GIVE ERN FOOTHLLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR WITH THE MST FAVORABLE
SNW AMTS...BUT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN.  SHT WV UPR RDG WILL RMN OVR
AREA THRU WED NGT.  HWVR MOIST WLY FLO ALF WILL KEEP SUM PCPN IN
MTNS WITH WED PRD MST FAVORED BFR SNW INCREASES AGN ON THU.  PLAINS
WILL GENLY BE DRY ON TUE NGT AND WED WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF SNW ON
WED NGT. TEMPS WILL ARND SEASONAL NORMS DUE TO ABUNDANT SNW CVR WITH
TEMPS BCMG MUCH COLDER ON THU BEHIND CDFNT WHICH PUSHES S ALG ERN
SLP MTNS.  WILL GENLY FVR THE COOLER OF MOS TEMP GDNC VALUES.
IN EXTENDED PRD...FRI-MON...GFS IS SLO TO MOVE UPR LO OVR SRN GRT
PLAINS TO E OF AREA AND BACKWASH PCPN MY PERSIST ACRS AREA OF PLAINS
THRU SAT.  UPR RDG BUILDS OVR CNTRL RCKYS FM LATE SAT THRU SUN.
LATEST RUN OF GFS SHWS ANOTHER SHT WV SPREADING SUM SNW INTO MTNS ON
MON BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS SYS FOR NOW.  BECUZ OF SLO MOVEMENT
OF CLOSED UPR LO EWD TEMPS WILL BE SLO TO WRM UNTIL SUN AND MON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
D-L/GARD...WFO BOULDER

FXUS65 KBOU 261031
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
331 AM MST TUE DEC 26 2006
.SHORT TERM...CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING A MOUNTAIN WAVE
CLOUD MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS ZONES ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS.  THERE
IS SOME MOISTURE UPSTREAM TO POTENTIALLY KEEP IT GOING FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING ANYWAY.  CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES VARY WIDELY...SOME 40S
AS WELL AS TEENS ON THE PLAINS.  SNOWFIELD AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE
TO BLAME.  TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS/FOOTHILLS
TODAY.  THE CURRENT SNOWFIELD IN PLACE WOULD POINT TO PERSISTENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS...AT LEAST FOR ALL THE PLAINS BUT THOSE
WITHIN 15 TO 20 MILES OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND
WIND FIELDS POINT TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSLOPING...AT LEAST
THROUGH ABOUT 18Z TODAY.  THE DOWNSLOPING DECREASES AFTER THAT.
THEN THERE IS THE CLOUDINESS...THE NAM KEEPS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER US TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE GFS SHOWS A LULL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  SATELLITE PICTURES POINT TO ENOUGH UPSTREAM TO KEEP IT
COMING.  THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PROGGED WINDS KEEP SHOWING A
DECENT CROSS BARRIER COMPONENT FOR THE LENTICULAR CLOUDS TO
PERSIST.  THE PLAINS ARE DRY IN THE LOVER LEVELS.  IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT ON EITHER
MODEL TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT.  PLUS THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO KEEP SOME MINIMAL POPS GOING JUST TONIGHT IN
THE HIGHEST AREAS.  MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...THEN BRING IS ACROSS TONIGHT.  THE FLOW
ALOFT IS ZONAL TONIGHT AT 60-70 KNOTS.  IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME
TROUGH IS PRESENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY...WITH A BENIGN
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE TROUGHING INCREASES
A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING GREAT.  THERE IS NEUTRAL VERTICAL
VELOCITY TODAY AND THIS EVENING ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS.  AFTER MIDNIGHT...VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION IS PROGGED.  SO
WITH ALL CONSIDERED...WILL UP TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS...DEFINITELY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES.  FOR THE REST OF THE
PLAINS WILL GO CLOSER TO WARM GUIDANCE.  WILL USE PERSISTENCE FROM
MONDAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON WED IN ADVANCE
OF DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WRN US.  CROSS-SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN THE MTNS THRU WED NIGHT.  HOWEVER THEY
ALSO SHOW RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS AT LEAST THRU THE AFTN HOURS
ALONG WITH SWLY COMPONENT AT 700 MB.  MEANWHILE SOME QG ASCENT IS
FCST TO OCCUR BY AFTN SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MTNS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE IN ZONE 31.  OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS ONCE AGAIN LINGERING SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY WHERE INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO BREAK.  FOR NOW
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY AREAS WHERE READINGS WILL PROBABLY HOLD IN THE 30S.
FOR THU AND FRI HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER STG SYSTEM CLOSING OFF
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  LATEST GFS...NAM AND GEM HAVE
SYSTEM GENERALLY OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z THU AND THEN MOVE
SYSTEM INTO NERN NEW MEXICO BY THU NIGHT.  MEANWHILE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER SW WITH CLOSED LOW AND HAVE IT OVER SERN
ARIZONA BY THU NIGHT.  BY FRI NIGHT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BECOME
EVEN MORE DIVERSE AS THE GEM AND DGEX HAVE A STG CLOSED SYSTEM OVER
THE OK PANHANDLE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT FURTHER EAST OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BY FRI NIGHT HAS A RATHER WEIRD
LOOKING PATTERN AS IT HAS TWO CLOSED LOWS WITH ONE SYSTEM OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES WHILE HAVING A SEPARATE SYSTEM OVER WRN TEXAS.  AT THIS
POINT IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SOLUTION WILL ACTUALLY BE RIGHT.  IF GEM
AND DGEX VERIFY THEN THERE LIKELY WOULD BE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM OVER NRN CO FROM THU AFTN THRU FRI NIGHT MUCH LIKE WE SAW
LAST WEEK.  HOWEVER IF GFS VERIFIES THEN THE PROSPECTS OF A MAJOR
STORM WOULD BE FAR LESS.  FOR NOW BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO KEEP
CURRENT FCST FOR THU AND FRI PRETTY MUCH AS IS.  EVEN IF THE SYSTEM
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH STG COLD FRONT WILL STILL AFFECT THE AREA THU
INTO FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA.  THUS
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA THU INTO FRI ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS.  IN THE MTNS BEST CHC OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WOULD BE ON EAST FACING SLOPES IF DEEP UPSLOPE
COMPONENT DEVELOPS AS SHOWN BY GEM AND DGEX.
NO MATTER WHAT OCCURS ON THU AND FRI SHOULD SEE A MORE TRANQUIL WX
PTRN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
RJK/RPK

FXUS65 KBOU 262105
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
205 PM MST TUE DEC 26 2006
.SHORT TERM...FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
COLORADO WITH A STRONG WLY FLOW IN PLACE.  SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS DO
INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER MOUNTAIN WAVE OVERNIGHT.  THE
CROSS MTN COMPONENT IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 70 KTS...BUT ITS FAIRLY
HIGH...AROUND 650 MB.  NOT MUCH DOWNWARD TRANSPORT EVIDENT EITHER AS
THE WAVE IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...SO SUSPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  WL KEEP SOME GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE
TNGT...STRONGEST TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY
...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF DROPPING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOME WEAK QG ASCENT AND MID LVL CAA AS WELL.  CURRENT GRIDS FAVOR
ZONE 31 FOR SNOW WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SWLY.  THIS LOOKS FINE SO WL
LEAVE CURRENT POPS AS THEY WERE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP AFTN
TEMPERATURES BY 3-4 DEGREES ALG THE FOOTHILLS AND NERN PLAINS WITH
DOWNSLOPE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...WED NGT-FRI...MDLS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING CLSD
UPR LO FM 4 CORNERS ACRS CNTRL AND SRN RCKYS ONTO CNTRL AND SRN GRT
PLAINS BY END OF PRD.  SYS HAS STG DYNAMICS AND UPWRD Q-G OMEGA.
SYS WILL PRODUCE DEEP LYRD MOIST UPSLP FLO AGAINST ERN SLP OF MTNS
AND HI PLAINS BEGINNING BY MID-DAY THU AND CONTINUE THRU FRI.  SNW
WILL DCRS ACRS AREA FRI NGT.  COLD CANADIAN AMS WILL SPRD S OVR HI
PLAINS THU MRNG.  STG WNDS WITH SYS MAY PRODUCE MUCH BLWG SNW AND NR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVR PLAINS WHEN SYS GET WOUND-UP E OF MTNS ON
THU NGT AND FRI.  WILL GO WITH THE CURRENT SLOWER...BY 6 HRS...GFS
ON STARTING SNW ON THU...BUT TYPICAL SLO MOVEMENT OF DIGGING SYS
MAY DELAY START LATER.  THUS SYS MAY BE SLOWER EXITING AREA ON FRI
NGT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COLD THRU PRD.
IN EXTENDED PRD...SAT-TUE...AN UPR RDG WILL BUILD OVR THE WRN U.S.
AND CNTRL RCKYS BHND THE EXITING CLOSED UPR LO.  THE AMS WILL RMN
DRY AND SUBSIDENT THRU PRD.  WITH SFC HI PRES AND COOL AIR E OF
MTNS...TEMPS WILL BE SLO TO WRM OVR PLAINS ESPCLY WITH ADDITIONAL
SNW CVR.  TEMPS SHUD WRM TO NR SEASONAL NORMS BY TUE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH...FRONT RANGE
MTNS...ERN FTHLLS...AND ALL OF PLAINS FM THU AFTN THRU FRIDAY...ZNS
33>36..38>51.
&&
$$
COOPER/GARD...WFO BOULDER