FXUS63 KLMK 202005
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. BEFORE WE GET THERE WILL GO
THROUGH A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WARM UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO RISE AS A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CFA.
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SINK INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR THIS WINTER STORM EVENT
WILL WILL FOLLOW THE ETA12 WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE COLDER AIR SLIPPING INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING OVER MOST
AREAS. ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA.  HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH A BAND OF ICE PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SNOW. RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND BLUEGRASS REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH BASED ON THIS FORECAST WHICH WILL GO INTO EFFECT AROUND
8Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE TO 12Z THURSDAY.
THE COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD ALL THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN BOWLING GREEN
AROUND 04Z AND IN LEXINGTON AROUND 06Z WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE COLDER
AIR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ANY CHANGE IN THIS
WILL CHANGE THE LOCATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULL OFF THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM HERE IN THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED WILL BE SKY COVER.  THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED MODELS
SUGGEST CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.  AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...MAINLY TO OUR WEST.  THE TOUGHEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.  SHOULD A HEAVY SNOW OCCUR WITH THE
SHORT TERM SYSTEM (WEDNESDAY)...CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY COMBINED WITH THE SNOW PACK WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY
BOTTOM OUT.  IT APPEARS THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS (MEX NUMBERS)
ARE PICKING UP ON THIS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ENSEMBLES ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.  FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND ACROSS
THE EAST WITH TEMPS AND GONE WITH THE OP MEX NUMBERS ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE SNOW COVER COULD POSSIBLY BE.  SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...THIS
WOULD BE ONE OF THE COLDEST HOLIDAY PERIODS WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM
BUTLER COUNTY TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.
&&
$$
JA/MJ

FXUS63 KLMK 210813
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WILL CONTINUE WINTER STORM WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELONGATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS A DEVELOPING SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS
STRONG FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER AIR JET WILL
LEAD TO PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF CWA BY AROUND DAWN.
ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL START AS RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...EXPECT
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW DURING MORNING HOURS...AS A SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW TO FALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MAJORITY OF PRECIP TO FALL
AS SNOW. LESSER AMOUNTS WILL FALL SOUTHEAST AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
SLOWLY WORKS ITSELF EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGS IN INCREASINGLY COLD AIR BEHIND
SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS QUITE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY PRIOR TO TRANSITION TO SNOW.
TOWARDS EVENING...WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA...WITH
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH DIMINISHING
MOISTURE AND LIFT...SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SNOW
ENDING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. WITH STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...ANY SNOW COVER WILL ONLY AID TO
FRIGID AIR EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM
BUTLER COUNTY TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.
&&
$$
JSD

FXUS63 KLMK 211532
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
WE WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATED LATE MORNING FORECAST BY 1100 AM EST. WE
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE BEGINNING
OF THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH FROM TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY OVER ALL BUT
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. EARLY LOOK AT THE
12Z ETA IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WINTER STORM WATCH WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM BUTLER COUNTY
TO FRANKLIN COUNTY.
&&
$$
JA
 

FXUS63 KLMK 211954
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST EST TUE DEC 21 2004
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL SHAPING UP FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS
AND GENERALLY WITH EACH OTHER. THE ETA IS STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE GFS FOR OUR AREA AND WE WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT TENDS
TO HANDLE THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BETTER THAN THE GFS.
UNDER OUR FORECAST SOLUTION WE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AND 6
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT AS WE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND THEN SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT
THE PRESENT TIME WE EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER AT LOUISVILLE AROUND 10
AM EST, AND LEXINGTON AND BOWLING AROUND 4 PM EST. ONE OF MANY
CONCERNS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING ICE AROUND LEXINGTON LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ONE
QUARTER TO POSSIBLE ONE HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE WSW. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND 2
TO 4 INCHES FROM BOWLING GREEN UP TO LEXINGTON. 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WE WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES TONIGHT AS WE EXPECT THE
SNOW THERE TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE COUNTIES MENTIONED AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ICE OR SNOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTER 8 AM.
AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP RAIN IN
LONGER AND WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS WHILE COLDER AIR ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECT WILL INCREASE TOTALS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE AT THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS.  STILL TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW COLD IT WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW COVER WE'LL BE DEALING
WITH.  SHOULD WE GET A DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES THERE COULD DIP BELOW ZERO.  FOR NOW...AM
PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY
AND ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA.  THUS...FEEL THE COLDEST READINGS WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR S. INDIANA COUNTIES.  SHOULD ALL THIS OCCUR...THIS
WOULD BE THE COLDEST CHRISTMAS SINCE DECEMBER OF 1989.  BY
SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CRASHES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S.  AS THIS TROF DIGS OUTWEST...CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE) FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY TUESDAY.  TEMP
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP AND WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.  REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED ONLY
REQUIRED MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ELEMENTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM WATCH
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY NORTH OF A LINE FROM SIMPSON
COUNTY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TO NICHOLAS COUNTY AND INCLUDES
BOWLING GREEN, SPRINGFIELD, AND LEXINGTON.
&&
$$
JA/MJ

FXUS63 KLMK 212012
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST EST TUE DEC 21 2004
....UPDATED AFD TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS STILL SHAPING UP FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS
AND GENERALLY WITH EACH OTHER. THE ETA IS STILL SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE GFS FOR OUR AREA AND WE WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT TENDS
TO HANDLE THE COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS BETTER THAN THE GFS.
UNDER OUR FORECAST SOLUTION WE EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AND 6
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT AS WE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND THEN SNOW THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT
THE PRESENT TIME WE EXPECT THE CHANGE OVER AT LOUISVILLE AROUND 10
AM EST, AND LEXINGTON AND BOWLING AROUND 4 PM EST. ONE OF MANY
CONCERNS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING ICE AROUND LEXINGTON LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. ONE
QUARTER TO POSSIBLE ONE HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION IN THE WSW. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND 2
TO 4 INCHES FROM BOWLING GREEN UP TO LEXINGTON. 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WE WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING ACROSS OUT
NORTHERN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA COUNTIES TONIGHT AS WE EXPECT THE
SNOW THERE TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE COUNTIES MENTIONED AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ICE OR SNOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTER 8 AM.
AS I MENTIONED YESTERDAY, A DELAY IN THE COLD AIR WILL KEEP RAIN IN
LONGER AND WILL REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS WHILE COLDER AIR ARRIVING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN EXPECT WILL INCREASE TOTALS.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
WILL BE AT THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS.  STILL TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT HOW COLD IT WILL BE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH SNOW COVER WE'LL BE DEALING
WITH.  SHOULD WE GET A DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...TEMPERATURES THERE COULD DIP BELOW ZERO.  FOR NOW...AM
PLANNING ON AT LEAST SOME SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY
AND ALL OF SOUTHERN INDIANA.  THUS...FEEL THE COLDEST READINGS WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR S. INDIANA COUNTIES.  SHOULD ALL THIS OCCUR...THIS
WOULD BE THE COLDEST CHRISTMAS SINCE DECEMBER OF 1989.  BY
SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CRASHES INTO THE WESTERN
U.S.  AS THIS TROF DIGS OUTWEST...CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (TUE) FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD ENTER THE CWA BY TUESDAY.  TEMP
PROFILES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP AND WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD.  REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED ONLY
REQUIRED MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ELEMENTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND THE REST OF
SNOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTKCY WEDNESDAY. WINTER
STORM WATCH WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
SIMPSON COUNTY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TO NICHOLAS COUNTY AND
INCLUDES BOWLING GREEN, SPRINGFIELD, AND LEXINGTON.
&&
$$
JA/MJ

FXUS63 KLMK 220649
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
....WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY
FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MAJOR WINTER STORM DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN EASTERN TEXAS.
A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO WEST
VIRGINIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR A LONG-LIVED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER STRONG LIFT GENERATED BY A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. EVEN AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...UPPER AIR
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB COLD POOL WILL
SERVE TO PROLONG PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE WSW WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORECAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
FINALLY...PLAN TO UPGRADE WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE
BLUEGRASS REGION TO A WARNING AS SUBSTANTIAL ICING IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. EARLY THIS MORNING THE ARCTIC FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. A COMPARISON OF THE MESOETA WITH CURRENT OBS SHOW THAT
MESOETA HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE PROGRESS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING. EARLY THIS
MORNING...RADAR SHOWED SNOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.
FOR NORTHERN KENTUCKY...EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING
RAIN TO DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES FALL LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR LOUISVILLE...FOR EXAMPLE...SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES
RISING TO 32 TO 33 DEGREES LATER THIS AFTERNOON EVEN AS THE LOWEST
LAYERS COOL DOWN.
ICING SEEMS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THE AREA EXTENDING FROM BOWLING
GREEN THROUGH LEXINGTON. FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO
SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END AS ALL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT THAT TIME
AND WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON TO SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SNOWCOVERED AREAS WILL QUITE POSSIBLY FALL TO BELOW ZERO FOR A
COUPLE OF NIGHTS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
CENTRAL KENTUCKY FROM SIMPSON COUNTY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TO
NICHOLAS COUNTY...INCLUDING BOWLING GREEN, SPRINGFIELD, AND
LEXINGTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A REGION
EXTENDING FROM ALLEN COUNTY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...NORTHEAST
TO CLARK COUNTY.
&&
$$
JSD

FXUS63 KLMK 222026
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.SHORT TERM...(THIS STORM) TNGT THRU THU
....WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY
FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTS TO DEVELOP. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN SERN TX/SRN LA. A WELL
DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO ERN KENTUCKY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SERN KY LATE TNGT TO SERN OH BY 12Z THU.
DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR A SECOND SURGE OF PCPN TNGT AND EARLY THU AS
NM/W TX SHRTWV REACHES OH VLY BY 12Z THU AND COUPLED JET ENHANCES
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIQUID QPF OF 1 TO
2 INCHES. BIG QUESTION/PROBLEM IS PCPN TYPE AND DURATION WITH A
POSSIBLE CHG IN THERMAL PROFILES DUE TO AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT AS MORE WARM AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO SYS UPSTREAM.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT WX...THINK A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET TO BE
THE RULE MUCH OF SRN INDIANA TNGT WHERE LOOKING FOR 12 TO 20 INCH
STORM TOTALS. JUST S OF THE OH RIVER...ZR/IP/SN TO LIMIT STORM
TOTALS TO 6-12 INCHES WITH 3-6 JUST S IN THE BARDSTOWN/ETOWN AREAS
AND 1-3 IN THE BOWLING GREEN/LEX AREAS WHERE THE PREDOMINANT PCPN
TYPE SHUD BE ZR. IN THOSE AREAS ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF ICE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS SHUD BE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFT 06Z WITH OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES GOING TO SNOW AFT 09Z.
EXPECT SNOW TO END BY MID MORNING THU AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ARCTIC HI PRES IN WAKE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE FLURRIES ENDING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND QUEBEC.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CLEAR OUT...OR AT LEAST IT MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WORKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE ONCE
AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE VERY COLD ON FRIDAY. LATEST MOS
TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM ABOUT 10 TO 15 AND THAT SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. THIS WILL SET UP FOR THE COLDEST DAY SO FAR THIS WINTER
SEASON ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA.
A DRY PERIOD WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND LIGHT WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS 850 TEMPS WARM
RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY BEGINNING MON AND TUESDAY...ECMWF MODEL IS VERY
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH OF WARMING YET H5MB PATTERN DIFFERENT WITH
STRONG MID LVL HI SETTING UP OFF THE GULF AND FL COASTS WHILE 12GFS
IS STILL MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL INCRS TEMPS SOMEWHAT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BELIEVE EXTENDED MRF MOS IS A DECENT BLEND AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BACKED OFF PREV CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUES BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE OH VLY BY MID WEEK.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
TOMPKINSVILLE TO LIBERTY TO RICHMOND.
&&
$$
KIRKPATRICK/BROTHERTON

FXUS63 KLMK 222031
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.SHORT TERM...(THIS STORM) TNGT THRU THU
....WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY
FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTS TO DEVELOP. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TRACK OF SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED IN SERN TX/SRN LA. A WELL
DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO ERN KENTUCKY. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS SERN KY LATE TNGT TO SERN OH BY 12Z THU.
DYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR A SECOND SURGE OF PCPN TNGT AND EARLY THU AS
NM/W TX SHRTWV REACHES OH VLY BY 12Z THU AND COUPLED JET ENHANCES
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIQUID QPF OF 1 TO
2 INCHES. BIG QUESTION/PROBLEM IS PCPN TYPE AND DURATION WITH A
POSSIBLE CHG IN THERMAL PROFILES DUE TO AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT AS MORE WARM AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO SYS UPSTREAM.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT WX...THINK A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET TO BE
THE RULE MUCH OF SRN INDIANA TNGT WHERE LOOKING FOR 12 TO 20 INCH
STORM TOTALS. JUST S OF THE OH RIVER...ZR/IP/SN TO LIMIT STORM
TOTALS TO 6-12 INCHES WITH 3-6 JUST S IN THE BARDSTOWN/ETOWN AREAS
AND 1-3 IN THE BOWLING GREEN/LEX AREAS WHERE THE PREDOMINANT PCPN
TYPE SHUD BE ZR. IN THOSE AREAS ONE HALF TO 1 INCH OF ICE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. ALL AREAS SHUD BE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFT 06Z WITH OUR
FAR SERN COUNTIES GOING TO SNOW AFT 09Z.
EXPECT SNOW TO END BY MID MORNING THU AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ARCTIC HI PRES IN WAKE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE FLURRIES ENDING DURING THE EARLY
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AND QUEBEC.
HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CLEAR OUT...OR AT LEAST IT MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING...THEN LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WORKS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE ONCE
AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES INTO THE AREA. IT WILL BE VERY COLD ON FRIDAY. LATEST MOS
TEMPS ARE RANGING FROM ABOUT 10 TO 15 AND THAT SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. THIS WILL SET UP FOR THE COLDEST DAY SO FAR THIS WINTER
SEASON ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA.
WILL FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGS BELOW A MOS BLEND IN AREAS WHERE VERY
HEAVY SNOWCOVER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. THIS GIVE 5-10 BELOW IN
OUR SOUTHERN INDIANA AREA WITH AROUND ZERO IN THE LOU METRO.
A DRY PERIOD WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL AREA AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND LIGHT WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS 850 TEMPS WARM
RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY BEGINNING MON AND TUESDAY...ECMWF MODEL IS VERY
SIMILAR IN STRENGTH OF WARMING YET H5MB PATTERN DIFFERENT WITH
STRONG MID LVL HI SETTING UP OFF THE GULF AND FL COASTS WHILE 12GFS
IS STILL MORE AMPLIFIED. WILL INCRS TEMPS SOMEWHAT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BELIEVE EXTENDED MRF MOS IS A DECENT BLEND AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BACKED OFF PREV CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUES BUT WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHWRS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE OH VLY BY MID WEEK.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
TOMPKINSVILLE TO LIBERTY TO RICHMOND.
&&
$$
KIRKPATRICK/BROTHERTON

FXUS63 KLMK 230230
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2004
...AMAZING WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOUISVILLE
FORECAST AREA...
NOTE TO USERS: WE'LL BE SENDING OUT SNOW/ICE REPORTS UNDER OUR
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT (PNSLMK) PRODUCT, AND USING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST (NOWLMK) PRODUCT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE/TIMING FOR
THE 0-6 HOUR PERIOD.
CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR SHOW IMPRESSIVE BANDING SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATEST RUC MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES SHOWING INCREASING 850 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH 6Z, THEN ROTATING EASTWARD AFTER 6-9Z.
WE HAVE JUST SEEN A COUPLE TICKS OF CG LIGHTNING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION BAND; THUNDERSNOW/THUNDERSLEET
IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHIN
THIS DEFORMATION AXIS, WHERE K-INDICES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER. THUNDERSNOW JUST REPORTED AT TELL CITY.
SO OVERALL, WE'RE THINKING PERIODS OF HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME TOTALS NEAR
TWO FEET VERY POSSIBLE. FOR KENTUCKY COUNTIES NEAR OHIO RIVER,
CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM
EST...A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. FOR OUR "ICING ZONE" OF LEXINGTON, BARDSTOWN, AND
BOWLING GREEN...WE SHOULD SEE FZRA/SLEET CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 2 (BWG) AND 5 AM (LEX);
ICE ACCUMS OF 1/2 INCHES AND SNOW ACCUMS 1-3 INCHES REMAIN FORECAST.
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WILL OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT, WITH ADVISORY REMAINING IN
EFFECT.
APPROACHING DRY SLOT, WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC SOUNDING
GUIDANCE, SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE FA AFTER 9Z OR SO, AS ICE CRYSTAL GENERATION LAYER
DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT. WE'LL SEE HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE -> NOON THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE -> NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
XXV
 

FXUS63 KLMK 230313
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
927 PM EST FRI DEC 17 2004
...AMAZING WINTER STORM UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOUISVILLE
FORECAST AREA...
NOTE TO USERS: WE'LL BE SENDING OUT SNOW/ICE REPORTS UNDER OUR
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT (PNSLMK) PRODUCT AND LOCAL STORM REPORT
(LSRLMK) PRODUCT, AND USING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST (NOWLMK) PRODUCT
TO REFINE PRECIPITATION TYPE/TIMING FOR THE 0-6 HOUR PERIOD.
CURRENT TRENDS ON RADAR SHOW IMPRESSIVE BANDING SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LATEST RUC MATCHES UP
WELL WITH THESE FEATURES SHOWING INCREASING 850 MB DEFORMATION AXIS
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH 6Z, THEN ROTATING EASTWARD AFTER 6-9Z.
WE HAVE JUST SEEN A COUPLE TICKS OF CG LIGHTNING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION BAND; THUNDERSNOW/THUNDERSLEET
IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITHIN
THIS DEFORMATION AXIS, WHERE K-INDICES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER. THUNDERSNOW JUST REPORTED AT TELL CITY.
SO OVERALL, WE'RE THINKING PERIODS OF HEAVY BANDED SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME TOTALS NEAR
TWO FEET VERY POSSIBLE. FOR KENTUCKY COUNTIES NEAR OHIO RIVER,
CHANGE OVER FROM SLEET TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM
EST...A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. FOR OUR "ICING ZONE" OF LEXINGTON, BARDSTOWN, AND
BOWLING GREEN...WE SHOULD SEE FZRA/SLEET CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BETWEEN 2 (BWG) AND 5 AM (LEX);
ICE ACCUMS OF 1/2 INCHES AND SNOW ACCUMS 1-3 INCHES REMAIN FORECAST.
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET WILL OCCUR SOMETIME OVERNIGHT, WITH ADVISORY REMAINING IN
EFFECT.
APPROACHING DRY SLOT, WHICH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC SOUNDING
GUIDANCE, SHOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY LIGHTEN UP FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS THE FA AFTER 9Z OR SO, AS ICE CRYSTAL GENERATION LAYER
DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT. WE'LL SEE HOW THIS FEATURE EVOLVES.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE -> NOON THURSDAY.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE -> NOON THURSDAY.
&&
$$
XXV

FXUS63 KLMK 230820
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
WRAPPING UP THE MAJOR WINTER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AMAZING AMOUNTS OF SNOW HAS BEEN
RECORDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DESTRUCTIVE ICING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND THUNDERSNOW REPORTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LAST NIGHT. TODAY THE LOW THAT BROUGHT
US THE SECOND SHOT OF FROZEN MISERY WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE FROZEN PRECIP WILL COME TO A END BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE LEX AREA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ICE PELLET/SNOW MIX EARLY TODAY CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
AWAY...THEREFORE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A PROBLEM ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. ARCTIC AIR STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS CHILLS WILL
BE NEAR WARNING CRITERIA AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS
COLDER THAN MOS...WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE LOWER MOS GUIDANCE
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST ALL OF
THE CWA...BUT STILL SHY OF ANY RECORDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH NOON TODAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TOMPKINSVILLE TO
LIBERTY TO RICHMOND.
&&
$$
SCHOTT
 

FXUS63 KLMK 231139
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004
...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
RAPID INTRODUCTION OF DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS HAS ENDED THE
CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR A LINE OF
PRECIP THAT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MORNING. INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO DEEPENING LOW
MOVING AWAY FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN REGION OF THE CWA...THEREFORE A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED OVER THE COUNTIES THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
WINTER STROM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED DUE TO THE
ENDING OF THE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
(PREVIOUS MORNING DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST)
WRAPPING UP THE MAJOR WINTER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AMAZING AMOUNTS OF SNOW HAS BEEN
RECORDED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN INDIANA WITH DESTRUCTIVE ICING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND THUNDERSNOW REPORTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER LAST NIGHT. TODAY THE LOW THAT BROUGHT
US THE SECOND SHOT OF FROZEN MISERY WILL MOVE NE TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND THE FROZEN PRECIP WILL COME TO A END BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE LEX AREA. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN ICE PELLET/SNOW MIX EARLY TODAY CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
AWAY...THEREFORE BLOWING SNOW MAY BE A PROBLEM ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER TODAY. ARCTIC AIR STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS CHILLS WILL
BE NEAR WARNING CRITERIA AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW PACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS
COLDER THAN MOS...WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE LOWER MOS GUIDANCE
OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING TEMPS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST ALL OF
THE CWA...BUT STILL SHY OF ANY RECORDS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/ WARNINGS...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
&&
$$
SCHOTT

FXUS63 KLMK 232004
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004
...SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU SUN...
TEMPS WILL LIKELY GO WELL BELOW MOS TNGT/FRI NGT ACRS OUR NRN FA
WITH HEAVY SNOW PACK...ESPECIALLY SRN IN. STRONGLY CONSIDERED A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE...HOWEVER WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 5 MPH-CLOSER
TO THE ETA BASED ON UPSTREAM WINDS) WHEN TEMPS ARE FALLING TOWARD
ZERO. MID/HI LVL CLDS WILL INCRS LATE ACRS WRN HALF OF FA (AFT
MIDNIGHT) AND TOWARD MORNING ERN HALF AS UPR LVL TROF FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ADVANCES TO THE UPR OH VLY TO MID
MSP VLY BY 12Z FRI. TROF THEN PROGGED THRU OUR FA BY FRI EVE WITH
FLOW TURNING TO THE NW. ANOTHER VERY COLD NGT FRI NGT WITH EVEN
LIGHTER WINDS AS NRN PLAINS SFC HI DROPS SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THEN RIDGES INTO OUR FA FRI AND SAT. WEAK RETURN FLO BEGINNING SAT
NGT AND SUN WITH MOERATING TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL COLD WITH SNOW COVER
MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD 12Z ECMWF/CAN/UKMET/ETA FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
THIS FORECAST. THESE ALONG WITH 12Z GFS HOLDS TROUGH AND SURFACE
SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN 00Z RUN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
COOLER OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS AND THIS IS REASONABLE OVER NORTHERN
PART OF FA, ESPECIALLY WITH A DEEP SNOW COVER OVER INDIANA AND FAR
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. WILL SLOW WARM UP AND GO A LITTLE COOLER ON
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...THAN GUIDANCE DOES.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW SOON TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO FA IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME-FRAME. 12Z GFS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW IN
HOLDING THE SURFACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WILL FAVOR BRINING IT A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY MOVES EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE NORTH, WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT IF LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE SLOWER MOVEMENT
MAY HAVE TO SLOW ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
HAVE MODIFIED MOS TEMPERATURES INDICATED A SLOWER WARM-UP.  -MBS
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DK
 

FXUS63 KLMK 240820
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
...SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU SUN...
BIGGEST ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE COLD TEMPS AND HOW
LOW WILL THEY GO...MOS HAS NO CLUE TO THE TEMPS IT SEEMS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. WENT WELL BELOW MOS ACROSS AREAS
WHICH ARE SNOW/SLEET COVERED FROM WEDNESDAY STORM. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WITHOUT SNOW/SLEET...WITH LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER
THE SNOWPACK. BELOW ZERO WILL BE EASY TO REACH TONIGHT AS HEART OF
COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES OVR THE OH VALLEY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
AS WE ENTER INTO SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER H850 TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN TEMPS BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL AND THE SNOW WILL
KEEP THOSE AREAS WHICH ARE COVERED COLDER.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WARMUP BEGINS MONDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING AND RAPID JUMP IN H850 TEMPS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CREEP MORE TOWARDS NORMAL...SOME DISPARITY
WITH THE SNOW COVERED AREA WILL KEEP THEM DOWN 4-6 DEGREES BELOW THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. DEPENDING ON TIME IT TAKES TO
MELT ALL OF THE SNOW/SLEET THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY TO A LESSER
EXTENT. TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE WILL SIT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS DEEPER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL REMOVE CHC POPS AS
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WILL SLOW DOWN SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SCHOTT

FXUS63 KLMK 241849
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
...SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU MON...
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT IN STORE TNGT FOR OUR SNOW PACKED
AREAS...ESPECIALLY SRN INDIANA. TEMPS WILL BE AS COLD OR COLDER THAN
LAST NIGHT OVER OUR NRN MOST INDIANA COUNTIES AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
MOVES ACRS TNGT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND JUST A FEW
CLOUDS TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL GO WITH LOWS OF -10 TO -15 FROM DUBOIS
TO JEFFERSON COUNTY INDIANA WITH ANOTHER CUT OF -5 TO -10 JUST SOUTH
INCLUDING LOU METRO...WITH THE METRO AREA CLOSER TO -5. NOT AS COLD
TEMPS TO BE PLACED FARTHER S AND E WITH ONLY MINOR ICE/SNOW ACCUMS
THERE.
A CLIPPER SYS TO SKIM OUR FA WITH SOME CLOUDS MAINLY SAT OTHERWISE
FAIR THRU THE SHORT TERM. UPR LVL HGTS TO INCRS AFTER CLIPPER
PASSAGE WITH RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM BY MON NGT. A SLOW MODERATING
TEMP TREND BEGINS CHRISTMAS DAY...ALBEIT SLOWED BY SNOW COVER...TO
KICK INTO HIGHER GEAR SUN AND MON.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE INCREASING SEPARATION FROM THE SNOW
AND COLD REGIME OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. BY MONDAY NIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF KENTUCKY WILL COMBINE TO BRING CONTD
GRADUAL WARMING. THE PRESENCE OF SNOW AND ICE COVER WILL SLOW THE
WARMING TO SOME EXTENT...BUT AS THIS DISAPPEARS...A GIVEN DAY'S
HEATING WILL GO DIRECTLY TO WARMING THE AIR...AND NOT TO MELTING
SNOW. A SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL PRODUCE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ABOUT NEW YEAR'S EVE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEW YEARS EVE COULD BE ABOVE 50 DEGREES.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DK/NR

FXUS63 KLMK 250810
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
...SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MON...
HEART OF COLD ARCTIC AIR IS OVR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
BESIDE WATCHING SANTA ON THE RADAR...WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING TEMPS
DROP TO 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER ACROSS AREAS WITH HEAVY SNOWPACK IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DROPPING ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND SEEMS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE
PROGGED...WILL BRING IN CLOUDS 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER AND KEEP SCT
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
SLIGHTLY EXPANDING THEM TO THE EAST. HI PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK OVR
THE REGION SUNDAY AND CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS...WHILE ALSO
BEGINNING THE SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. SFC HI STILL OVR THE OH
VALLEY MONDAY...WITH INCREASED WAA ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS WILL BE INTERESTING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SHARP DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SNOWPACK AREAS AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN
GENERAL KEPT A 5-10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT. MOS SEEMS OFF THRU THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WENT COLDER TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND WARMER MONDAY WITH
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WAA.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS LOOK TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATTERN OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CONTINUED SW FLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND WARMING TREND TO SLOWLY MELT THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...STILL A SMALL 4-6 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE BORDER OF THE SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
UNTIL THURSDAY. NEXT PERIOD OF SHOWERS LOOK LIKE TO BE LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE GULF STATES...TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARM AND THEREFORE ALL PRECIP WILL BE RAIN.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SCHOTT