NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
2003121200 to 2003121600
FXUS61 KOKX 120259
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1000 PM EST THU DEC 11 2003
.PUBLIC...ZFP/GRID UPDATES FOR PCPN ENDING AND CLEARING WORKING INTO
CWA. ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP A TAD FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...CONTINUE GALES ALL WATERS. ALSO BUMPED WINDS UP AS
THEY'VE STAYED UP LONGER THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISHING
TO BELOW GALES NEXT FEW HOURS AND MID SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOWER
GALES TO SCA. SEAS ALSO RUNNING HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND
HAVE BUMPED THEM UP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS FINALLY MOVING E...ALL TAFS VFR NEXT FEW
HOURS. GUSTY WINDS MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...STILL RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR RAMAPO AT MAHWAH. EXPECT
LEVEL TO LEVEL OFF NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR... NO OTHER WARNINGS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT.
&&
*** 425 PM DISCUSSION EXCERPTS ***
.DISCUSSION...GRADIENT REMAINS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH TONIGHT AND
EVEN INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE IN
SATURDAY AND THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA TOWARD 10Z SUNDAY.
.EXTENDED...
ETA AND GFS BRING EFFECTS OF NEXT SYSTEM IN EARLY SUNDAY WITH
OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS
SUNDAY WITH A QUICK SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ALL ZONES. ANY COLD AIR
ALOFT QUICKLY WARMS UP AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF COAST.
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL DROP POPS BACK TO CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PROBABLY
ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CARRY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BULK OF THE SUPPORT AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH.
STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW MONDAY...BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY.
BRIEF DRY PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN...IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
$$
REYNOLDS
FXUS61 KOKX 120905
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
405 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FCST B/C THIS EVENT MAY
BE MORE WINTRY THAN WET (ESPECIALLY INLAND).
AT LEAST THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET. WINDS ARE DYING OFF SLOWLY FROM
THEIR EARLIER HIGHER SPEEDS, AND WILL CONT TO DO SO TODAY...BUT
STILL WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. CAA CONTINUES TODAY...AND WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO P/C SKIES. S/W RIDES TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND MAY DELIVER SOME SCT CLOUDS.
COLD SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. DIGGING SYSTEM
OVER THE TN VLY MAY SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING CIRRUS INTO OUR SKIES
SOMETIME LATER SATURDAY AFTN.
THE COLD DRY SFC HIPRES SYSTEM WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
FULL GAMUT OF PRECIP TYPES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP SAT NIGHT AS
SYTEM TO OUR W APPROACHES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THEREAFTER. WENT
PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS...SINCE IT'S BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS NOW. GFS ALSO INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN USA THAN THE ETA DID WHEN COMPARING TO THE 00Z
RAOBS. ETA LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE WAA AND LOW
CENTER...ALTHOUGH TO SOME EXTENT...THE ECM AGREES...WHICH WORRIES ME
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE TRENDED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY SOUTH...AND MAY CONT TO DO SO...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY
COLDER SITUATION THEN IT NOW PORTRAYS.
NOTICED 00Z GFS RUN WAS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK
THAN 12Z RUN. WITH 00Z RUN SHOWING STRONGER AND MORE NEG TILTED UPR
TROF...WAS SURPRISED THAT THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WASN'T PUSHED
FURTHER NORTH. ALSO NOTICED THAT GFS AND OTHER MODELS HOLD ONTO THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREV RUNS...AND THIS MAY BE
THE CAUSE OF THE MODEL KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH.
IN ANY EVENT...SFC CYCLOGENISIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS LATE SAT NIGHT. WAA/ISENT LIFT WELL N OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND ENTER THE SRN SECTIONS OF MY CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS. WITH 1000-850 THKNS
VALUES COLD...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THANKS TO THE COLD HI
TO THE N...THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET ACRS THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AT THE COAST. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUG THE
MORNING EVERYWHERE...THEN START TO MIX WITH IP/R ALONG THE COAST
LATE MORNING. NOTE AVNMOS SFC TEMPS VERY COLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
SUNDAY...EVEN AT THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF FROZEN PRECIP. WILL STILL FORECAST A CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST/CITY SOMETIME SUN AFTN...WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR
FROZEN PRECIP AS SFC HIPRES SLIDES OFFSHORE OF NRN NEW ENGLAND.
INLAND...WELL NW OF NYC...COLD AIR MAY BE HARD TO DISLODGE DESPITE
DEPARTING SFC HI. COULD END UP BEING A SIG WINTER WEATHER EVENT
THERE (ORANGE/PUTNAM/ROCKLAND/NRN FAIRFIELD)...WITH SNOW STARTING
SUN AM...THEN GOING TO A SN/IP MIX AFTN...THEN PERHAPS EVEN JUST ZR.
STILL KEEPING IN MIND THIS IS THE COLD SOLN. A WARMER SOLN COULD
ALSO CHANGE THE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN UP THERE TOO.
SHOULD JUST BE RAINING MOST OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...EXCEPT WELL INLAND WHERE THEY MAY HOLD ONTO A
MIX...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT IF COLD SOLN VERIFIES.
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO -SN MONDAY EVERYWHERE FROM W TO
E...THEN END IN THE EVENING. 00Z GFS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFFSHORE. THIS COULD BRING
A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY.
ALL IN ALL...THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR IN THIS FCST WITH
SUNCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS. PRECIP TYPES AND INTENSITIES WILL
MOST DEFINETLY HAVE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SINCE
SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME FROZEN
PRECIP...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH
EMPHASIS ON INLAND LOCALES. WILL MENTION COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL...SINCE SOME SNOW/FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD FALL AT ONSET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RAMAPO IN MAHWAH STILL ABOVE FOOD STAGE...AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THAT WAY UNTIL AFTERNOON...THEN IT SLOWLY FALLS TO BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. ALL OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT WERE HIGH DUE TO PREV
RAINS SHOULD ALSO FALL OFF TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS STILL GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AT BUOYS 44025 AND 44017
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH COLD ADVECTION.
CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING THOUGH WITH A RATHER
TRANQUIL FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST ON SUN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM. CONDITIONS YET
AGAIN MAY APPROACH GALE CRITERIA SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. A BIT GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY AS
LOW PRES LIFTS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VLY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING...ANZ355-353-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ANZ338-335-330.
$$
MLE/DW
FXUS61 KOKX 121436
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
930 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING TO BOTH MARINE AND
PUBLIC ZONES WITH INCREASINGLY TRANQUIL WEATHER TO DEAL WITH NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY STILL PROMISING A MIXED BAG OF
WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...CAN DROP GALE WARNING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME AS WINDS...SUSTAINED AND GUSTS...HAVE
FALLEN BELOW CRITERIA. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
SOUND AND DROP FROM HARBOR ON THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RAMAPO IN MAHWAH STILL ABOVE FOOD STAGE...BUT SHOULD
FALL BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. FLS CURRENTLY OUT WILL BE UPDATED WITH
LATEST INFORMATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
*********** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ************
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WINTER STORM
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED FCST
B/C THIS EVENT MAY BE MORE WINTRY THAN WET (ESPECIALLY INLAND). AT
LEAST THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET. WINDS ARE DYING OFF SLOWLY FROM THEIR
EARLIER HIGHER SPEEDS, AND WILL CONT TO DO SO TODAY...BUT STILL WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. CAA CONTINUES TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
P/C SKIES. S/W RIDES TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AND MAY DELIVER SOME SCT CLOUDS. COLD SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VERY DRY DEWPOINTS. DIGGING SYSTEM OVER THE TN VLY MAY SHOULD BEGIN
SPREADING CIRRUS INTO OUR SKIES SOMETIME LATER SATURDAY AFTN.
THE COLD DRY SFC HIPRES SYSTEM WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
WINTER WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS ONE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
FULL GAMUT OF PRECIP TYPES. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP SAT NIGHT AS
SYTEM TO OUR W APPROACHES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER THEREAFTER. WENT
PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS...SINCE IT'S BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT OVER
THE PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS NOW. GFS ALSO INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE
SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN USA THAN THE ETA DID WHEN COMPARING TO THE 00Z
RAOBS. ETA LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE WAA AND LOW CENTER...
ALTHOUGH TO SOME EXTENT...THE ECM AGREES...WHICH WORRIES ME
SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE TRENDED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY SOUTH...AND MAY CONT TO DO SO...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY
COLDER SITUATION THEN IT NOW PORTRAYS.
NOTICED 00Z GFS RUN WAS A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK
THAN 12Z RUN. WITH 00Z RUN SHOWING STRONGER AND MORE NEG TILTED UPR
TROF...WAS SURPRISED THAT THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW WASN'T PUSHED
FURTHER NORTH. ALSO NOTICED THAT GFS AND OTHER MODELS HOLD ONTO THE
DEPARTING SFC HIGH A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREV RUNS...AND THIS MAY BE
THE CAUSE OF THE MODEL KEEPING THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH.
IN ANY EVENT...SFC CYCLOGENISIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS LATE SAT NIGHT. WAA/ISENT LIFT WELL N OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW
PRECIP TO MOVE UP THE COAST AND ENTER THE SRN SECTIONS OF MY CWA
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS. WITH 1000-850 THKNS
VALUES COLD...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THANKS TO THE COLD HI
TO THE N...THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET ACRS THE CWA
SUNDAY MORNING...EVEN AT THE COAST. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUG THE
MORNING EVERYWHERE...THEN START TO MIX WITH IP/R ALONG THE COAST
LATE MORNING. NOTE AVNMOS SFC TEMPS VERY COLD THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
SUNDAY...EVEN AT THE COAST...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF FROZEN PRECIP. WILL STILL FORECAST A CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
COAST/CITY SOMETIME SUN AFTN...WITH UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FOR
FROZEN PRECIP AS SFC HIPRES SLIDES OFFSHORE OF NRN NEW ENGLAND.
INLAND...WELL NW OF NYC...COLD AIR MAY BE HARD TO DISLODGE DESPITE
DEPARTING SFC HI. COULD END UP BEING A SIG WINTER WEATHER EVENT
THERE (ORANGE/PUTNAM/ROCKLAND/NRN FAIRFIELD)...WITH SNOW STARTING
SUN AM...THEN GOING TO A SN/IP MIX AFTN...THEN PERHAPS EVEN JUST ZR.
STILL KEEPING IN MIND THIS IS THE COLD SOLN. A WARMER SOLN COULD
ALSO CHANGE THE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN UP THERE TOO.
SHOULD JUST BE RAINING MOST OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...EXCEPT WELL INLAND WHERE THEY MAY HOLD ONTO A
MIX...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT IF COLD SOLN VERIFIES.
PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO -SN MONDAY EVERYWHERE FROM W TO
E...THEN END IN THE EVENING. 00Z GFS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFFSHORE. THIS COULD BRING
A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY.
ALL IN ALL...THERE IS PLENTY OF ROOM FOR ERROR IN THIS FCST WITH
SUNCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS. PRECIP TYPES AND INTENSITIES WILL
MOST DEFINETLY HAVE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SINCE
SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME FROZEN
PRECIP...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WITH THIS PACKAGE...WITH
EMPHASIS ON INLAND LOCALES. WILL MENTION COASTAL AREAS AS
WELL...SINCE SOME SNOW/FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD FALL AT ONSET.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355-353-350-335-330.
$$
08
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
509 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.SHORT TERM...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONGER TERM...GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE ALTHOUGH SOME
COMPROMISING WILL BE DONE AS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY THAN CHANGES TO A MIX AND FINALLY ALL RAIN.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...RAIN LIKELY TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW ALL AREAS. WITH CHANGING PRECIPITATION AND
TIMING OF THIS CHANGE STILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR...TOUGH FORECAST
AHEAD. ANYHOW BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS MY INLAND ZONES SUNDAY TO WARRANT A WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS WILL MATCH UP WELL WITH MY SURROUNDING WFOS. NEAR
THE COAST...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON JUST HOW SOON THE CHANGE OVER
CAN OCCUR...LOOKING FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW INITIALLY.
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5 BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY HIGHS BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT FOR THE EVENING...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS ALL OF MY COUNTIES AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER STORM SETTING UP FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD BUT APPEARS THAT THE TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY RIGHT AT THE END WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN
ALTHOUGH THIS RARELY WORKS OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 2 INCHES LIQUID WITH THIS
FIRST EVENT. LOCALLY FLOODING ISSUES ARISE AGAIN AND WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR...GUSTY WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR BORDERLINE WINDS ALL WATERS. OCEAN
SEAS STILL RUNNING 6-8 FT AS OF 12/1800 UTC. WAVEWATCH III TOO LOW
RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND WILL KEEP SEAS UP A BIT LONGER THAN WW DOES.
SEAS JUMP UP QUICKLY SUN AS STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PER
OPC DISC...WILL OPT TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH FOR SUN. SR
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355-353-350-335-330.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 122217
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED W/W/A SECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
509 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.SHORT TERM...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONGER TERM...GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE ALTHOUGH SOME
COMPROMISING WILL BE DONE AS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY THAN CHANGES TO A MIX AND FINALLY ALL RAIN.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...RAIN LIKELY TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW ALL AREAS. WITH CHANGING PRECIPITATION AND
TIMING OF THIS CHANGE STILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR...TOUGH FORECAST
AHEAD. ANYHOW BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS MY INLAND ZONES SUNDAY TO WARRANT A WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS WILL MATCH UP WELL WITH MY SURROUNDING WFOS. NEAR
THE COAST...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON JUST HOW SOON THE CHANGE OVER
CAN OCCUR...LOOKING FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW INITIALLY.
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5 BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY HIGHS BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT FOR THE EVENING...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS ALL OF MY COUNTIES AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER STORM SETTING UP FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD BUT APPEARS THAT THE TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY RIGHT AT THE END WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN
ALTHOUGH THIS RARELY WORKS OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 2 INCHES LIQUID WITH THIS
FIRST EVENT. LOCALLY FLOODING ISSUES ARISE AGAIN AND WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR...GUSTY WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR BORDERLINE WINDS ON OCEAN. OCEAN
SEAS STILL RUNNING 6-8 FT AS OF 12/1800 UTC. WAVEWATCH III TOO LOW
RIGHT OFF THE BAT AND WILL KEEP SEAS UP A BIT LONGER THAN WW DOES.
SEAS JUMP UP QUICKLY SUN AS STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PER
OPC DISC...WILL OPT TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH FOR SUN. SR &&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS ONLY...ANZ355-353-350.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 130152
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
852 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2003
.SHORT TERM...PLUME OF BROKEN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MOVING OFFSHORE AND
PATCH OF CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD ATTM. ONCE THESE EXIT EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT WINDS DOWN A LITTLE AND SINGLED OUT LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS FOR LOWER TEMPS GIVEN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SR
&&
.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN FOR ROUGH SEAS FOR THE TIME
BEING...THESE SHOULD COME DOWN BELOW CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS JUMP UP QUICKLY SUN AS STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. PER OPC
DISC...WILL OPT TO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH FOR SUN. BG/SR
&&
.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE ALTHOUGH SOME
COMPROMISING WILL BE DONE AS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT STORM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY THAN CHANGES TO A MIX AND FINALLY ALL RAIN.
AS COLDER AIR RETURNS MONDAY AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...RAIN LIKELY TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW ALL AREAS. WITH CHANGING PRECIPITATION AND
TIMING OF THIS CHANGE STILL NOT TOTALLY CLEAR...TOUGH FORECAST
AHEAD. ANYHOW BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET ACROSS MY INLAND ZONES SUNDAY TO WARRANT A WINTER
STORM WATCH. THIS WILL MATCH UP WELL WITH MY SURROUNDING WFOS. NEAR
THE COAST...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON JUST HOW SOON THE CHANGE OVER
CAN OCCUR...LOOKING FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW INITIALLY.
TEMPERATURES STILL ABOUT 5 BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY HIGHS BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT FOR THE EVENING...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS ALL OF MY COUNTIES AS SUNDAY
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ANOTHER STORM SETTING UP FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD BUT APPEARS THAT THE TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT POSSIBLY RIGHT AT THE END WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX IN
ALTHOUGH THIS RARELY WORKS OUT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING FOR BETWEEN 1 1/2 AND 2 INCHES LIQUID WITH THIS
FIRST EVENT. LOCALLY FLOODING ISSUES ARISE AGAIN AND WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN A SPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY...CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY...NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY...NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...
ANZ355-353-350.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 130851
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
350 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPACTS FROM COASTAL STORM FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE
REGION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. LOOKS LIKE A M/SUNNY DAY WITH DECENT
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAM INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
COLD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MINS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO COLD IN THE MODELS WITH THE INCREASING SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT...AND WENT 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE THEM.
BALL GETS ROLLING SUNDAY AS WAA AND ISENT LIFT INCREASES IN THE
MORNING. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. WILL LIKELY START AROUND 12Z SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THEN ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE.
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
OVER OUR REGION AS SUNDAY WEARS ON. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG DOES
THE FROZEN PRECIP HANG ON NEAR THE COAST...AND WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER
TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN SNOW OCCURS INLAND.
CLIMO SAYS THIS SHOULD BE A WETTER SOLN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS. GENERALLY DO NOT GET BIG SNOW EVENTS IN THIS CWA WITH THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO THE NE OF US...AND A SFC LOW TRACK
THAT REALLY HUGS THE COAST. THE WINDS USUALLY GO EAST QUICKER IN
THIS SITUATION...AND BRINGS IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR.
IT'LL FIRST COME IN ALOFT...AND GRADUALLY WARM THE SFC THEREAFTER.
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE FRIDAY.
SNOW TO RAIN AT THE COAST...WITH SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP WELL INLAND.
INLAND AREAS MAY EVEN SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IF MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING THE WAA...WHICH CAN BE THE CASE WITH A SFC LOW TRACK THIS
FAR N...AND A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SEEMS LIKE THE
MODELS ARE GOING AGAINST CLIMO WITH THIS ONE...AND KEEP THE SFC
COLD...AT LEAST COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIP INLAND. THIS COULD
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR JUST S OF LI ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS/MIXED PRECIP IN
THE CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT WITH THE ONSET. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WITH INITIAL SHOT OF WAA
THAT GIVES EVEN COASTAL AREAS 2-5 INCHES. MAY SEE A FEW 6" REPORTS
EVEN AT THE COAST IF ONSET ON WAA PRECIP IS HEAVY...WHICH COULD VERY
WELL BE THE CASE. TIMING FOR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...MAINLY WELL N AND W OF NYC...EXPECT SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MIX WITH SLEET
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMS OVER 6" IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES
GETTING A FOOT OR MORE.
SITUATION IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS TIME...AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN LOW
TRACK COULD MEAN DIFFERENT PRECIP TYPES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN COULD GET QUITE A BIT OF IT...ON
THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA DUE TO THIS....SINCE SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE STILL
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THESE PROBLEMS ARE IN AREAS WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW/MIXED PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD
WATCH ATTM. MAY STILL HAVE TO ISSUE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS...AND WE
SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL NUISANCE HIGHWAY/URBAN FLOODING...BUT THAT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHO GETS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THAT
POSSIBILITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. AREAS EVEN AT THE COAST
SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING AS SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...PROFILES ARE QUITE STOUT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REACH THE SFC. THE GRADIENT ALONE WITH THIS BOMBING SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESP ON MONDAY.
WITH STOUT ELY WINDS DVLPNG ON SUNDAY...COULD HAVE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. TIDES ARE NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH...AND IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'LL NEED DEPARTURES OF 3 TO 5 FT TO CAUSE MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THAT'S FAIRLY HIGH...THUS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
IN A NUTSHELL...WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAIN AS IS WITH
THIS PACKAGE. DAY SHIFT WILL GET THE DECISION AS TO WHERE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE PLACED. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
NEXT IN THE LONG LINE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREAS IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF
PRODUCER. ATTM WE ARE FCSTING RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
MORE SNOWCOVER FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY
PUSH THE NEXT STORM FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING US COLDER WITH WINTRY
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 2.25 INCH QPF EVENT HERE. SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY THE URBAN/HIGHWAY/POOR
DRAINAGE TYPES. AS FAR AS RIVERS GO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAINLY NERN
NJ AND THE LOWER HUD VALLEY TO SEE IF MORE OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS
RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. IF SO...A FEW FLW'S WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFT AND EVE. CLOUDS
QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ON SUN WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 HOLDING AROUND 5 FT. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE BIT GUSTY THROUGH MID MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE. SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED ON THE NEXT
UPDATE CYCLE.
EXPECT A STRONG GALE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COASTAL STORM LATE SUN
INTO MON WITH 35 TO 40 KT WINDS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KT.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE TUE BEFORE YET ANOTHER COASTAL STORM
THREATENS HIGH WINDS ON THE WATERS WED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS...ANZ350-353-355.
$$
MLE/DW
FXUS61 KOKX 131352
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
850 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...NOT GOING TO TOUCH A THING THIS MORNING. BELIEVE THE
MID CREW HAS DONE A GREAT JOB HANDLING A VERY COMPLEX SYSTEM COMING
IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...TYPE AND
TIMING ALL COMING INTO PLAY AT VARIOUS INTERVAL ACROSS THE
ZONES...THE RESULTANT FORECAST IS GOING TO FEATURE ALOT OF NASTY
THINGS. DISCUSSION BELOW DOES A VERY NICE JOB DESCRIBING WHAT IS TO
BE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 STILL HOLDING AROUND 5 FT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
OCEAN. OTHERWISE HEADLINE THAT A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STAND.
&&
********************* PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *******************
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPACTS FROM
COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. LOOKS LIKE A M/SUNNY DAY WITH DECENT
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAM INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
COLD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MINS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO COLD IN THE MODELS WITH THE INCREASING SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT...AND WENT 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE THEM.
BALL GETS ROLLING SUNDAY AS WAA AND ISENT LIFT INCREASES IN THE
MORNING. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. WILL LIKELY START AROUND 12Z SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THEN ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE.
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
OVER OUR REGION AS SUNDAY WEARS ON. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG DOES
THE FROZEN PRECIP HANG ON NEAR THE COAST...AND WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER
TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN SNOW OCCURS INLAND.
CLIMO SAYS THIS SHOULD BE A WETTER SOLN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS. GENERALLY DO NOT GET BIG SNOW EVENTS IN THIS CWA WITH THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO THE NE OF US...AND A SFC LOW TRACK
THAT REALLY HUGS THE COAST. THE WINDS USUALLY GO EAST QUICKER IN
THIS SITUATION...AND BRINGS IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR.
IT'LL FIRST COME IN ALOFT...AND GRADUALLY WARM THE SFC THEREAFTER.
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE FRIDAY.
SNOW TO RAIN AT THE COAST...WITH SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP WELL INLAND.
INLAND AREAS MAY EVEN SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IF MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING THE WAA...WHICH CAN BE THE CASE WITH A SFC LOW TRACK THIS
FAR N...AND A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SEEMS LIKE THE
MODELS ARE GOING AGAINST CLIMO WITH THIS ONE...AND KEEP THE SFC
COLD...AT LEAST COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIP INLAND. THIS COULD
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR JUST S OF LI ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS/MIXED PRECIP IN
THE CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT WITH THE ONSET. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WITH INITIAL SHOT OF WAA
THAT GIVES EVEN COASTAL AREAS 2-5 INCHES. MAY SEE A FEW 6" REPORTS
EVEN AT THE COAST IF ONSET ON WAA PRECIP IS HEAVY...WHICH COULD VERY
WELL BE THE CASE. TIMING FOR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...MAINLY WELL N AND W OF NYC...EXPECT SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MIX WITH SLEET
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMS OVER 6" IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES
GETTING A FOOT OR MORE.
SITUATION IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS TIME...AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN LOW
TRACK COULD MEAN DIFFERENT PRECIP TYPES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN COULD GET QUITE A BIT OF IT...ON
THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA DUE TO THIS....SINCE SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE STILL
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THESE PROBLEMS ARE IN AREAS WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW/MIXED PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD
WATCH ATTM. MAY STILL HAVE TO ISSUE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS...AND WE
SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL NUISANCE HIGHWAY/URBAN FLOODING...BUT THAT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHO GETS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THAT
POSSIBILITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. AREAS EVEN AT THE COAST
SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING AS SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...PROFILES ARE QUITE STOUT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REACH THE SFC. THE GRADIENT ALONE WITH THIS BOMBING SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESP ON MONDAY.
WITH STOUT ELY WINDS DVLPNG ON SUNDAY...COULD HAVE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. TIDES ARE NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH...AND IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'LL NEED DEPARTURES OF 3 TO 5 FT TO CAUSE MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THAT'S FAIRLY HIGH...THUS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
IN A NUTSHELL...WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAIN AS IS WITH
THIS PACKAGE. DAY SHIFT WILL GET THE DECISION AS TO WHERE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE PLACED. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
NEXT IN THE LONG LINE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREAS IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF
PRODUCER. ATTM WE ARE FCSTING RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
MORE SNOWCOVER FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY
PUSH THE NEXT STORM FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING US COLDER WITH WINTRY
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 2.25 INCH QPF EVENT HERE. SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY THE URBAN/HIGHWAY/POOR
DRAINAGE TYPES. AS FAR AS RIVERS GO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAINLY NERN
NJ AND THE LOWER HUD VALLEY TO SEE IF MORE OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS
RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. IF SO...A FEW FLW'S WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFT AND EVE. CLOUDS
QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ON SUN WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT FOR NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS...ANZ350-353-355.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 131430
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
930 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO
MONDAY...OTHERWISE NOT GOING TO TOUCH ANYTHING ELSE THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THE MID CREW HAS DONE A GREAT JOB HANDLING A VERY COMPLEX
SYSTEM COMING IN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...TYPE AND TIMING ALL COMING INTO PLAY AT VARIOUS INTERVAL
ACROSS THE ZONES...THE RESULTANT FORECAST IS GOING TO FEATURE ALOT
OF NASTY THINGS. DISCUSSION BELOW DOES A VERY NICE JOB DESCRIBING
WHAT IS TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOYS 44025 AND 44017 STILL HOLDING AROUND 5 FT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE
OCEAN. OTHERWISE HEADLINE THAT A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE
IN THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STAND.
&&
********************* PREVIOUS DISCUSSION *******************
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND IMPACTS FROM
COASTAL STORM FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE COLD AND DRY AIR TO THE REGION...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. LOOKS LIKE A M/SUNNY DAY WITH DECENT
SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE SOME CIRRUS STREAM INTO THE AREA
LATER IN THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
COLD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MINS MAY BE A LITTLE
TOO COLD IN THE MODELS WITH THE INCREASING SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT...AND WENT 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE THEM.
BALL GETS ROLLING SUNDAY AS WAA AND ISENT LIFT INCREASES IN THE
MORNING. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SNOW TO BEGIN FALLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
MORNING. WILL LIKELY START AROUND 12Z SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...THEN ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE.
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO INTENSIFY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP
OVER OUR REGION AS SUNDAY WEARS ON. THE QUESTION IS...HOW LONG DOES
THE FROZEN PRECIP HANG ON NEAR THE COAST...AND WHEN/IF A CHANGEOVER
TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN SNOW OCCURS INLAND.
CLIMO SAYS THIS SHOULD BE A WETTER SOLN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS. GENERALLY DO NOT GET BIG SNOW EVENTS IN THIS CWA WITH THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO THE NE OF US...AND A SFC LOW TRACK
THAT REALLY HUGS THE COAST. THE WINDS USUALLY GO EAST QUICKER IN
THIS SITUATION...AND BRINGS IN THE RELATIVELY MILD MARITIME AIR.
IT'LL FIRST COME IN ALOFT...AND GRADUALLY WARM THE SFC THEREAFTER.
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE FRIDAY.
SNOW TO RAIN AT THE COAST...WITH SNOW TO MIXED PRECIP WELL INLAND.
INLAND AREAS MAY EVEN SEE A CHANGE TO ALL RAIN IF MODELS ARE
UNDERDOING THE WAA...WHICH CAN BE THE CASE WITH A SFC LOW TRACK THIS
FAR N...AND A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SEEMS LIKE THE
MODELS ARE GOING AGAINST CLIMO WITH THIS ONE...AND KEEP THE SFC
COLD...AT LEAST COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL FROZEN PRECIP INLAND. THIS COULD
BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WIND AS STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR JUST S OF LI ON SUNDAY.
WILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS/MIXED PRECIP IN
THE CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT WITH THE ONSET. WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW WITH INITIAL SHOT OF WAA
THAT GIVES EVEN COASTAL AREAS 2-5 INCHES. MAY SEE A FEW 6" REPORTS
EVEN AT THE COAST IF ONSET ON WAA PRECIP IS HEAVY...WHICH COULD VERY
WELL BE THE CASE. TIMING FOR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...MAINLY WELL N AND W OF NYC...EXPECT SNOW...HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MIX WITH SLEET
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMS OVER 6" IN
THESE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTIES
GETTING A FOOT OR MORE.
SITUATION IS VERY TRICKY AT THIS TIME...AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN LOW
TRACK COULD MEAN DIFFERENT PRECIP TYPES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN COULD GET QUITE A BIT OF IT...ON
THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA DUE TO THIS....SINCE SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE STILL
NEAR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...THESE PROBLEMS ARE IN AREAS WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW/MIXED PRECIP IS FORECAST...SO WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD
WATCH ATTM. MAY STILL HAVE TO ISSUE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS...AND WE
SHOULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL NUISANCE HIGHWAY/URBAN FLOODING...BUT THAT
ALL DEPENDS ON WHO GETS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. AT THIS TIME...THAT
POSSIBILITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. AREAS EVEN AT THE COAST
SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MONDAY MORNING AS SOME WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH CAA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO...PROFILES ARE QUITE STOUT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT THE STRONGEST
WINDS TO REACH THE SFC. THE GRADIENT ALONE WITH THIS BOMBING SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESP ON MONDAY.
WITH STOUT ELY WINDS DVLPNG ON SUNDAY...COULD HAVE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. TIDES ARE NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH...AND IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE'LL NEED DEPARTURES OF 3 TO 5 FT TO CAUSE MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING. THAT'S FAIRLY HIGH...THUS A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
IN A NUTSHELL...WILL LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAIN AS IS WITH
THIS PACKAGE. DAY SHIFT WILL GET THE DECISION AS TO WHERE
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE PLACED. AGAIN...THIS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM.
NEXT IN THE LONG LINE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREAS IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF
PRODUCER. ATTM WE ARE FCSTING RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE GET
MORE SNOWCOVER FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY
PUSH THE NEXT STORM FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING US COLDER WITH WINTRY
PRECIP ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...LOOKING AT 1.5 TO 2.25 INCH QPF EVENT HERE. SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR...MAINLY THE URBAN/HIGHWAY/POOR
DRAINAGE TYPES. AS FAR AS RIVERS GO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH MAINLY NERN
NJ AND THE LOWER HUD VALLEY TO SEE IF MORE OF THE QPF WILL FALL AS
RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW. IF SO...A FEW FLW'S WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...RELATIVELY QUIET TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY. CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFT AND EVE. CLOUDS
QUICKLY LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 12Z. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ON SUN WILL PROVIDE
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN INTO MON FOR CTZ005>008.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS...ANZ350-353-355.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 132004
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
305 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...COLD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SNOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVE SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. ALL OF THIS WILL
SPREAD INCREASINGLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON. PROBLEM IS...WHEN WILL THE SNOW MIX
AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST? MISSING THE CHANGE OVER BY
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS COULD MEAN A RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE
SNOW FORECAST. ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE PROBLEM BECOMES EVEN GREATER.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR INTERIOR
ZONES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOOKING FOR TOTALS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 INCHES. NEAR THE COAST TAPERING
DOWN TO 3 TO 5 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN COULD GET QUITE A
BIT OF IT...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 2 INCHES. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...SINCE SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE STILL NEAR
FLOOD STAGE.
IN ADDITION...WIND WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE SO THROUGH MONDAY. THE GRADIENT ALONE WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY BEYOND THAT THROUGH MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH LOCALLY MODERATE IN THOSE THAT HAVE PROVEN TO BE MOST
VULNERABLE. DEPARTURES BETWEEN 3 1/2 AND 4 1/2 FEET SEEM REASONABLE
TO EXPECT. WITH ONLY LOCALLY MODERATE EXPECTED WILL NOT ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
NEXT IN THE LONG LINE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREAS IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF
PRODUCER. ATTM WE ARE FORECASTING RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE
GET MORE SNOW COVER FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD
ULTIMATELY PUSH THE NEXT STORM FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING US COLDER
WITH WINTRY PRECIP ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR UPCOMING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH QPF
EVENT WHERE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY. INITIALLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH 02Z WITH MID LEVEL
CEILING COMING INTO THE AREA AFT 02Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AROUND
11Z AS CEILINGS LOWER AND SNOW DEVELOPS. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN START
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE TO LOWER IN THE
SNOW...BECOMING IFR 14Z ON. MIXED PRECIPITATION...ICE PELLETS
POSSIBLE AFTER 22Z ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH SNOW CONTINUING
INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...WILL ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WATERS CALM THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A
LIGHT NE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO PICK UP FROM THE EAST ~30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE TO STORM FORCE...BUT A VERY
SHALLOW MIXING LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MORE FREQUENT GUSTS FORM MIXING
DOWN. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 7 TO
10 FT ON THE SOUND. ALSO EXPECT TIDES TO RISE 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL
ON EAST FACING SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SOUND WHERE
GEOGRAPHY WILL FUNNEL THE WATER HIGHER ON AN ENE WIND. THIS MAY
CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND
LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE WESTERN SOUND AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL RELAX
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NE OVER THE WATERS...BUT
THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RACES FAR NE OF
THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EASES. THE WATERS
SHOULD GO BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.
ANOTHER NOR'EASTER MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE
WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTN THROUGH MON FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 140147
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
845 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...HIGH/MID CLOUDS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE AREA ALONG
JET AXIS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASED WAA
AND MOSITURE ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDY SKIES. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES...WILL UPDATE ALL STATEMENTS.
&&
.MARINE...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS FOR ALL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE ALREADY RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...WILL ISSUE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL
WATERS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WATERS CALM THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT NE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE EAST ~30 TO 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE TO
STORM FORCE...BUT A VERY SHALLOW MIXING LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FORM MIXING DOWN. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 15 TO 20
FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 7 TO 10 FT ON THE SOUND. ALSO EXPECT TIDES TO
RISE 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON EAST FACING SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY
THE WESTERN SOUND WHERE GEOGRAPHY WILL FUNNEL THE WATER HIGHER ON AN
ENE WIND. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER MANY COASTAL
LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE WESTERN
SOUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL RELAX SUNDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NE OVER THE
WATERS...BUT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND LOW PRESSURE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AND INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX
TO BELOW GALE WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
RACES FAR NE OF THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
EASES. THE WATERS SHOULD GO BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN. ANOTHER NOR'EASTER MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z. SNOW THEN DEVELOPS LOWERING CEILINGS
AND VIS TO IFR AROUND 15Z OR SO. ONCE STARTED...IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THRU 00Z WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z IN SNOW. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ALONG
THE COAST AROUND 21Z OR SO...THEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY 22 TO 23Z.
SWF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL SNOW THRU 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 305 PM SAT...COLD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVE SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE TRI-STATE
REGION. ALL OF THIS WILL SPREAD INCREASINGLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON. PROBLEM
IS...WHEN WILL THE SNOW MIX AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST?
MISSING THE CHANGE OVER BY ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS COULD MEAN A
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE SNOW FORECAST. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THE PROBLEM BECOMES EVEN GREATER.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR INTERIOR
ZONES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL ZONES. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LOOKING FOR TOTALS BETWEEN 8 AND 13 INCHES. NEAR THE COAST TAPERING
DOWN TO 3 TO 5 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...AREAS THAT CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN COULD GET QUITE A
BIT OF IT...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 2 INCHES. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...SINCE SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE STILL NEAR
FLOOD STAGE.
IN ADDITION...WIND WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE SO THROUGH MONDAY. THE GRADIENT ALONE WITH THIS BOMBING
SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY BEYOND THAT THROUGH MONDAY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TIDES ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD SEE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH LOCALLY MODERATE IN THOSE THAT HAVE PROVEN TO BE MOST
VULNERABLE. DEPARTURES BETWEEN 3 1/2 AND 4 1/2 FEET SEEM REASONABLE
TO EXPECT. WITH ONLY LOCALLY MODERATE EXPECTED WILL NOT ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
NEXT IN THE LONG LINE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREAS IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. THIS ONE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF
PRODUCER. ATTM WE ARE FORECASTING RAIN...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS WE
GET MORE SNOW COVER FROM THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM. THIS COULD
ULTIMATELY PUSH THE NEXT STORM FURTHER SOUTH...LEAVING US COLDER
WITH WINTRY PRECIP ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR UPCOMING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH QPF
EVENT WHERE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTN THROUGH MON FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 140921
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
420 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA TODAY. MOST OF FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
THE SAME...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/FLOOD WATCH REMAIN AS IS AS FAR AS PLACEMENT
GOES. A FEW TWEAKS MAY BE MADE WITHIN THOSE AREAS...BUT NOTHING
REALLY SIGNIFICANT.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTROL LOCALIZED HEFTY PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
THEIR LOCATIONS...SO THIS FORECAST WILL MOST DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE
REFINED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SITUATION TODAY WITH
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...SO PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING (9Z OR SO)...THE SNOW WAS JUST ABOUT TO GET
INTO THE DC AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F OVER OUR AREA...THINK IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO EAT THROUGH DRY LAYER. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DVLP FROM SW TO NE ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
STARTING AFTER 15Z. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE NERN AREAS OF THE
CWA START TO SEE SNOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH SNOW DO COASTAL AREAS GET TODAY BEFORE
GOING TO SLEET AND RAIN. 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED 850 TEMPS 1-4F
TOO WARM OVER THE NORTHEAST WHEN COMPARING TO 00Z RAOBS. THIS MAY OR
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE DUE TO MODELS TRYING
TO PUSH SFC-850 COLD AIRMASS OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY. THIS COULD MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP FOR COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS TEND TO UNDERFOREACST WAA MAGNITUDE WITH BOMBING
SYSTEMS...SO SNOW MAY GO OVER TO SLEET NOT TOO LONG AFTER ONSET
ALONG THE COAST (PERHAPS EVEN START AS A SN/SLEET MIX). ADVISORIES
WILL STAY AS IS...WITH A 2-4" BURST EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS IF SLEET WORKS IN RIGHT AFTER
ONSET...OR AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE IF INITIAL BURST OF WAA PRECIP IS
ALL SNOW AND HEAVY (LIKE THE ONSET OF THE LAST EVENT). GUT FEELING
IS FOR THE FIRST SCENARIO.
FURTHER INLAND...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN. IF COLD AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HANGS TOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ZR PROBLEMS. OVERALL...SNOW
ACCUM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MAY LOWER A FEW INCHES HOWEVER
DUE TO SLEET AND ZR MIXING POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FLOOD WATCH STAYS UP AS IS. COULD SEE 1-2.5"
RAIN WITH EVEN SOME CONVECTION AS SHOWALTERS ON THE GFS DROP TO
AROUND -2C.
THINKING DRY SLOT GETS INTO CWA 03-06Z AND LASTS THROUGH MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF STEADY PRECIP FOR GOOD...AND LEAVE SOME DZ
ALONG THE COAST AND DZ/FZDZ INLAND OVERNIGHT. EXTREME NWRN AREAS
(ORANGE/ PUTMAM COUNTIES) MAY HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF ALL TYPES OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z.
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WRAP AROUND SNOWS MONDAY...AS
TROWAL/DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN DVLPS TO FAR TO THE N AND E TO
GET US. JUST SOME CHCY -SN/-SHSN.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES.
ISOLATED MODERATE POSSIBLE WITH 2.5-3.5 FT DEPARTURES...ESP FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO LONG ISLAND SOUND. TIDES NOT ASTROMONICALLY
HIGH...SO NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PLANNED ATTM. WILL WATCH
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY TODAY, THOUGH.
WINDS LOOKS TO PICK UP QUITE STOUTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COOL
BL TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT REALLY STRONG STUFF. BEST WINDS WILL COME
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY WL CONTINUE...BUT
PERHAPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON AND NOT FOR THIS AFTN. WILL MAKE
FINAL DECISION AROUND 6AM AFTER LOOKING AT SOME MORE DATA.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURS LOOKS BIG...BUT WET (FOR NOW). LOTS OF WIND
AND PSBL COASTAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE 965-970MB COAST HUGGER. MORE
ON THIS WHEN THE FIRST STORM IS OUT OF OUR HAIR.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS UP FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS EASTERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTAUK POINT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MON...EXPECT A NW GALE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATE MON INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS COASTAL
WATERS WITH POTENTIAL GALE WED.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BY MID MORNING AS
VFR CEILINGS DROP TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF WINTRY MIX. EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MID TO LATE AFT FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS NYC...LI
AND SRN CT...WHILE INLAND THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
EVENING. POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET KICKS IN WITH 50 TO 60 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT...
WHILE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL INHIBITS MIXING AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUED FOR UPCOMING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH QPF
EVENT WHERE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTN THROUGH MON FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUN INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR SUN INTO SUN EVE FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL ZONES.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
MLE/DW
FXUS61 KOKX 141132
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA PORTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
420 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA TODAY. MOST OF FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
THE SAME...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/FLOOD WATCH REMAIN AS IS AS FAR AS PLACEMENT
GOES. A FEW TWEAKS MAY BE MADE WITHIN THOSE AREAS...BUT NOTHING
REALLY SIGNIFICANT.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTROL LOCALIZED HEFTY PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
THEIR LOCATIONS...SO THIS FORECAST WILL MOST DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE
REFINED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SITUATION TODAY WITH
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...SO PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING (9Z OR SO)...THE SNOW WAS JUST ABOUT TO GET
INTO THE DC AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F OVER OUR AREA...THINK IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO EAT THROUGH DRY LAYER. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DVLP FROM SW TO NE ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
STARTING AFTER 15Z. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE NERN AREAS OF THE
CWA START TO SEE SNOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH SNOW DO COASTAL AREAS GET TODAY BEFORE
GOING TO SLEET AND RAIN. 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED 850 TEMPS 1-4F
TOO WARM OVER THE NORTHEAST WHEN COMPARING TO 00Z RAOBS. THIS MAY OR
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE DUE TO MODELS TRYING
TO PUSH SFC-850 COLD AIRMASS OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY. THIS COULD MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP FOR COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS TEND TO UNDERFOREACST WAA MAGNITUDE WITH BOMBING
SYSTEMS...SO SNOW MAY GO OVER TO SLEET NOT TOO LONG AFTER ONSET
ALONG THE COAST (PERHAPS EVEN START AS A SN/SLEET MIX). ADVISORIES
WILL STAY AS IS...WITH A 2-4" BURST EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS IF SLEET WORKS IN RIGHT AFTER
ONSET...OR AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE IF INITIAL BURST OF WAA PRECIP IS
ALL SNOW AND HEAVY (LIKE THE ONSET OF THE LAST EVENT). GUT FEELING
IS FOR THE FIRST SCENARIO.
FURTHER INLAND...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN. IF COLD AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HANGS TOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ZR PROBLEMS. OVERALL...SNOW
ACCUM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MAY LOWER A FEW INCHES HOWEVER
DUE TO SLEET AND ZR MIXING POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FLOOD WATCH STAYS UP AS IS. COULD SEE 1-2.5"
RAIN WITH EVEN SOME CONVECTION AS SHOWALTERS ON THE GFS DROP TO
AROUND -2C.
THINKING DRY SLOT GETS INTO CWA 03-06Z AND LASTS THROUGH MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF STEADY PRECIP FOR GOOD...AND LEAVE SOME DZ
ALONG THE COAST AND DZ/FZDZ INLAND OVERNIGHT. EXTREME NWRN AREAS
(ORANGE/ PUTMAM COUNTIES) MAY HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF ALL TYPES OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z.
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WRAP AROUND SNOWS MONDAY...AS
TROWAL/DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN DVLPS TO FAR TO THE N AND E TO
GET US. JUST SOME CHCY -SN/-SHSN.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES.
ISOLATED MODERATE POSSIBLE WITH 2.5-3.5 FT DEPARTURES...ESP FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO LONG ISLAND SOUND. TIDES NOT ASTROMONICALLY
HIGH...SO NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PLANNED ATTM. WILL WATCH
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY TODAY, THOUGH.
WINDS LOOKS TO PICK UP QUITE STOUTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COOL
BL TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT REALLY STRONG STUFF. BEST WINDS WILL COME
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY WL CONTINUE...BUT
PERHAPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON AND NOT FOR THIS AFTN. WILL MAKE
FINAL DECISION AROUND 6AM AFTER LOOKING AT SOME MORE DATA.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURS LOOKS BIG...BUT WET (FOR NOW). LOTS OF WIND
AND PSBL COASTAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE 965-970MB COAST HUGGER. MORE
ON THIS WHEN THE FIRST STORM IS OUT OF OUR HAIR.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS UP FOR ALL WATERS THIS MORNING AS EASTERLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTAUK POINT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MON...EXPECT A NW GALE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATE MON INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS COASTAL
WATERS WITH POTENTIAL GALE WED.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BY MID MORNING AS
VFR CEILINGS DROP TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF WINTRY MIX. EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MID TO LATE AFT FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS NYC...LI
AND SRN CT...WHILE INLAND THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
EVENING. POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET KICKS IN WITH 50 TO 60 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT...
WHILE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL INHIBITS MIXING AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUED FOR UPCOMING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH QPF
EVENT WHERE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON FOR CTZ009>012.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MON FOR CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
MLE/DW
FXUS61 KOKX 141404
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
902 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...WITH THE SNOW ALREADY OVER THE AREA SENT UPDATE. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS AS EASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF MONTAUK POINT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MON...EXPECT A NW GALE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATE MON INTO TUE...BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS COASTAL
WATERS WITH POTENTIAL GALE WED.
&&
***********PREVIOUS 420 AM DISCUSSION**********************
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA TODAY. MOST OF FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT
THE SAME...WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/FLOOD WATCH REMAIN AS IS AS FAR AS PLACEMENT
GOES. A FEW TWEAKS MAY BE MADE WITHIN THOSE AREAS...BUT NOTHING
REALLY SIGNIFICANT.
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTROL LOCALIZED HEFTY PRECIP AMOUNTS AND
THEIR LOCATIONS...SO THIS FORECAST WILL MOST DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE
REFINED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SITUATION TODAY WITH
RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...SO PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING (9Z OR SO)...THE SNOW WAS JUST ABOUT TO GET
INTO THE DC AREA. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 10F OVER OUR AREA...THINK IT
WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO EAT THROUGH DRY LAYER. EXPECTING
SNOW TO DVLP FROM SW TO NE ACRS THE CWA THIS MORNING...PROBABLY
STARTING AFTER 15Z. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE NERN AREAS OF THE
CWA START TO SEE SNOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT CONCERNS ARE HOW MUCH SNOW DO COASTAL AREAS GET TODAY BEFORE
GOING TO SLEET AND RAIN. 00Z MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED 850 TEMPS 1-4F
TOO WARM OVER THE NORTHEAST WHEN COMPARING TO 00Z RAOBS. THIS MAY OR
MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE DUE TO MODELS TRYING
TO PUSH SFC-850 COLD AIRMASS OFFSHORE TOO QUICKLY. THIS COULD MEAN
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP FOR COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...MODELS TEND TO UNDERFOREACST WAA MAGNITUDE WITH BOMBING
SYSTEMS...SO SNOW MAY GO OVER TO SLEET NOT TOO LONG AFTER ONSET
ALONG THE COAST (PERHAPS EVEN START AS A SN/SLEET MIX). ADVISORIES
WILL STAY AS IS...WITH A 2-4" BURST EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS IF SLEET WORKS IN RIGHT AFTER
ONSET...OR AMOUNTS COULD BE MORE IF INITIAL BURST OF WAA PRECIP IS
ALL SNOW AND HEAVY (LIKE THE ONSET OF THE LAST EVENT). GUT FEELING
IS FOR THE FIRST SCENARIO.
FURTHER INLAND...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...THEN MIXING WITH SLEET AND RAIN. IF COLD AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS HANGS TOUGH...COULD SEE SOME ZR PROBLEMS. OVERALL...SNOW
ACCUM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MAY LOWER A FEW INCHES HOWEVER
DUE TO SLEET AND ZR MIXING POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO FLOOD WATCH STAYS UP AS IS. COULD SEE 1-2.5"
RAIN WITH EVEN SOME CONVECTION AS SHOWALTERS ON THE GFS DROP TO
AROUND -2C.
THINKING DRY SLOT GETS INTO CWA 03-06Z AND LASTS THROUGH MORNING.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF STEADY PRECIP FOR GOOD...AND LEAVE SOME DZ
ALONG THE COAST AND DZ/FZDZ INLAND OVERNIGHT. EXTREME NWRN AREAS
(ORANGE/ PUTMAM COUNTIES) MAY HAVE A LIGHT MIX OF ALL TYPES OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z.
NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WRAP AROUND SNOWS MONDAY...AS
TROWAL/DEFORMATION/MID LEVEL FGEN DVLPS TO FAR TO THE N AND E TO
GET US. JUST SOME CHCY -SN/-SHSN.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDES.
ISOLATED MODERATE POSSIBLE WITH 2.5-3.5 FT DEPARTURES...ESP FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO LONG ISLAND SOUND. TIDES NOT ASTROMONICALLY
HIGH...SO NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PLANNED ATTM. WILL WATCH
SITUATION VERY CLOSELY TODAY, THOUGH.
WINDS LOOKS TO PICK UP QUITE STOUTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COOL
BL TEMPS SHOULD PREVENT REALLY STRONG STUFF. BEST WINDS WILL COME
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY. WIND ADVISORY WL CONTINUE...BUT
PERHAPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON AND NOT FOR THIS AFTN. WILL MAKE
FINAL DECISION AROUND 6AM AFTER LOOKING AT SOME MORE DATA.
NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURS LOOKS BIG...BUT WET (FOR NOW). LOTS OF WIND
AND PSBL COASTAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE 965-970MB COAST HUGGER. MORE
ON THIS WHEN THE FIRST STORM IS OUT OF OUR HAIR.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BY MID MORNING AS
VFR CEILINGS DROP TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF WINTRY MIX. EXPECT A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN MID TO LATE AFT FOR THE TERMINALS ACROSS NYC...LI
AND SRN CT...WHILE INLAND THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE
EVENING. POTENTIAL WIND SHEAR PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY JET KICKS IN WITH 50 TO 60 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT...
WHILE SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL INHIBITS MIXING AT THE SURFACE. &&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUED FOR UPCOMING 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH QPF
EVENT WHERE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.
&&
***************END OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION****************
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON FOR CTZ009>012.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MON FOR CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR NJZ002>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON FOR NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY INTO MON FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVE FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON FOR NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO MON FOR NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 142119
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
415 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...LOW ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS WRAPPED INTO THE LOW INITIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLEET REPORTED...WARMER AIR WORKING TO
THE SURFACE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO AREA.
SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING TO RAIN. COLDER AIR HANGING IN
ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S.
WITH HOLD ONTO THE SNOW ADVISORY THERE THROUGH THE EVENING. MAY ALSO
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE WERE CURRENTLY POSTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR ZONES. AS
THE LOW PULLS OUT LATER TONIGHT COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN A RAIN MAY
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.
STRONG WINDS DID NOT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY
ALL ZONES MONDAY. STILL SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW MONDAY DECREASING BY THE AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
DRY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRINGING RAIN IN A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
COULD BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
NEW JERSEY...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND TO COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH UP FOR TONIGHT. NEXT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD AGAIN POSE A FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
AS THE MILDER AIR WORKS IN. WHERE SNOW IS STILL A FACTOR IFR OR LIFR
WILL PREVAIL FOR AWHILE LONGER. ONCE THE CHANGE TO SLEET AND
ESPECIALLY RAIN TAKES PLACE VSBY IMPROVE RAPIDLY. WINDS OVERNIGHT
ABATE SOMEWHAT BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT
TIDES TO RISE TO 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON EAST FACING
SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SOUND WHERE GEOGRAPHY WILL
FUNNEL THE WATER HIGHER ON AN E WIND. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE WESTERN SOUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING E35 TO 40 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE AROUND E30
KT...BUT WILL PICK UP TO GALE CRITERIA AS GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT UNTIL ATLEAST 04Z TO 6Z WITH SUSTAINED
EAST WINDS ~30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE
TO STORM FORCE...BUT A VERY SHALLOW MIXING LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 8 TO 12
FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 4 TO 6 FT ON THE SOUND. EXPECT SEAS TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 13 TO 16 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 7 TO 10 FT ON
THE SOUND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG EASTERLIES. THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO MOMENTARILY RELAX BELOW GALE CRITERIA DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...AS WELL AS SHIFTING TO THE S AND THEN W BY DAYBREAK AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS OVER CAPE COD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY BEHIND LOW PRESSURE...AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE AGAIN AS THE NW GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL RUN ~35 TO
40 KT FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 KT...WITH A SLIGHTLY TALLER
MIXING LAYER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RACES FAR NE OF
THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EASES. THE WATERS
SHOULD GO BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.
ANOTHER NOR'EASTER WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE
WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN WED AND THU.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT CTZ005>007.
WINTER WEATHER ADV THIS EVENING CTZ008>012.
WIND ADVISORY MON CTZ005>012.
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT NJZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY NJZ002>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADV TONIGHT NYZ071.
WIND ADVISORY MON NYZ067>081.
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 150310
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1010 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003
.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEW
JERSEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND OVER CAPE COD BY
DAYBREAK. THE RA/FRZN PRECIP LINE HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...AND THE SOUTHERN LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
MARYLAND...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OVER THE PENNSYLVANIA/OHIO BORDER.
EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE TO CLOSE/OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WILL DOWNGRADE ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN NORTHERN ZONES TO WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES AS PRECIP WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER WARNING CRITERIA. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW
HAVEN...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT
AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN NY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP
ABOVE FREEZING AND LOOKING AT PLAIN RAIN.
.AVIATION...PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST. SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN STILL ON-GOING AT SWF. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF FOR
THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT THRU 06Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE NW ON MON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT AGAIN. VIS GENERALLY MVFR AND CIGS AROUND
1000 FT FOR THE MOST PART THRU 08Z. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE NW
IMPROVING VIS AND CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION FROM 415 PM SUN...LOW ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS
WRAPPED INTO THE LOW INITIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLEET
REPORTED...WARMER AIR WORKING TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE COAST AND
INTO LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO AREA. SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN
CHANGING TO RAIN. COLDER AIR HANGING IN ALONG THE CONNECTICUT COAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 20S. WITH HOLD ONTO THE SNOW
ADVISORY THERE THROUGH THE EVENING. MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
WILL CONTINUE WERE CURRENTLY POSTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN WARMER
AIR SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR ZONES. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT
LATER TONIGHT COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN A RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.
STRONG WINDS DID NOT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY...BUT EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY AND WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY
ALL ZONES MONDAY. STILL SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW MONDAY DECREASING BY THE AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
DRY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT. BRINGING RAIN IN A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
COULD BE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
&&
.MARINE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING. CONTINUING GALE WARNINGS
ON ALL WATERS.
PREVIOUS MARINE FROM 415 PM SUN...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS FOR
ALL WATERS. ALSO EXPECT TIDES TO RISE TO 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ON
EAST FACING SHORELINES...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SOUND WHERE
GEOGRAPHY WILL FUNNEL THE WATER HIGHER ON AN E WIND. THIS MAY CAUSE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE WESTERN SOUND AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING E35 TO 40 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE AROUND E30
KT...BUT WILL PICK UP TO GALE CRITERIA AS GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT UNTIL ATLEAST 04Z TO 6Z WITH SUSTAINED
EAST WINDS ~30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS MAY BE
TO STORM FORCE...BUT A VERY SHALLOW MIXING LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MORE
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 8 TO 12
FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 4 TO 6 FT ON THE SOUND. EXPECT SEAS TO
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 13 TO 16 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND 7 TO 10 FT ON
THE SOUND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG EASTERLIES. THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE CENTER
PASSING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO MOMENTARILY RELAX BELOW GALE CRITERIA DURING THIS OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...AS WELL AS SHIFTING TO THE S AND THEN W BY DAYBREAK AS LOW
PRESSURE PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS OVER CAPE COD. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW ON MONDAY BEHIND LOW PRESSURE...AND INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE AGAIN AS THE NW GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL RUN ~35 TO
40 KT FROM THE NW WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 KT...WITH A SLIGHTLY TALLER
MIXING LAYER THAN TODAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY RELAX TO BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE RACES FAR NE OF
THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA EASES. THE WATERS
SHOULD GO BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN.
ANOTHER NOR'EASTER WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GALE
WARNING CRITERIA AGAIN WED AND THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY
NEW JERSEY...NYC...AND LONG ISLAND TO COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND WILL
KEEP FLOOD WATCH UP FOR TONIGHT. NEXT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND COULD AGAIN POSE A FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVIS...CTZ005>008.
WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...CTZ009>012.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...CTZ005>012.
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT CTZ008>012.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...NJZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...NJZ005-006-011.
WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...NJZ002>006-011.
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...NJZ003>006-011.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...NYZ067>070.
WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...NYZ071>081.
WIND ADVISORY MON...NYZ067>081.
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...NYZ071>081.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 150924
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
423 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND MOVING EWD JUST SOUTH OF LI AS OF 08Z.
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM W TO E ATTM...AND MOST OF IT SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE CWA BY PACKAGE ISSUANCE. THERE MAY BE SOME SPITS OF
-RA/-SN/DZ/FZDZ AROUND...AND WILL WATCH TRENDS IN THE RADAR/OBS TO SEE
IF ANYTHING WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
WILL LIKELY KEEP A 20 OR 30 POP GOING (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z).
IF FZDZ HANGS AROUND...MAY OPT TO EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADV A LITTLE
LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THROUGH
EARLY AFTN AS WELL...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL WITH THAT.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING. PRES GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS AS LOW MOVES
AWAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE STOUTLY THIS
MORNING...AND PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A WIND
ADVISORY HAD ALREADY BEEN POSTED EARLIER...AND I WILL KEEP IT GOING
FOR TODAY. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THINK A FEW AREAS WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30KT FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY TODAY AFTER THE INITIAL
FALL-OFF THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FALL SLOWLY AFTER THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AS BEST GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE N AND NE OF MY
CWA. WILL EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY DURING THE EVENING.
RATHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD GO P/CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS...WITH A
FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE CITY.
TUESDAY MAY NOT ACTUALLY BE A BAD DAY...WITH P/CLOUDY TO M/SUNNY
SKIES AND A WARM SLY WIND. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 40S
WITH EVEN A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THINGS GO BACK DOWNHILL LATE TUE NIGHT AS NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF
APPROACHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING ANOTHER
NOR'EASTER OFF THE CAROLINA/DELMARVA COAST WED. IT IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO ABOUT LONG ISLAND AROUND 00Z
THURS. FOR NOW IT JUST LOOKS LIKE A WET AND VERY WINDY SYSTEM. COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE...AND WILL INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE
GRIDS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO KNOW IF THAT WILL HAPPEN OR
NOT. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...AND THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK MAY CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD, HOWEVER.
STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW HEADS TO OUR NORTH WILL BE A
CERTAINTY. STAY TUNED!
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING NOREASTER WILL
EASILY ATTAIN GALE FORCE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES BY 12Z TUE. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
STRONG WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON WED. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY AGAIN LATE WED
INTO THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE STAYED WITH THEIR BANKS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
FELL ACROSS AREA BASINS ON SUN. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER TO RAIN INHIBITED GOOD RUNOFF. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE
THE FLOOD THREAT WAS GREATEST...STAYED IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S. THIS ALLOWED FOR LITTLE IF ANY RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWPACK.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THOUGH AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MID WEEK MAY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN WITH
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS NW FLOW
BRINGS DRY AIR IN BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT.
SOUNDINGS DO GO BELOW ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z...BUT SOUNDING
DOES NOT SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI FORMATION...THUS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. NEXT PROBLEM...WILL BE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND A STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS TO 40 KT LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.
WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...CTZ005>011
NJ...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.
WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...NJZ002>006-011
NY...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.
WINTER WX ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING...NYZ067>078-080
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
FXUS61 KOKX 151517
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1015 AM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO INCREASE WITH CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOPING...AN INCREASE IN MIXING
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY PEAK WIND GUSTS MEETING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING. GALE WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...INCLUDING NY HARBOR AND LI SOUND.
BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...THE LAST
REMAINING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SE CT AND THE TWIN FORKS
EXPIRED AT 9:30 AM.
&&
...THIS IS THE 423 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND MOVING EWD JUST SOUTH OF LI AS OF 08Z.
PRECIPITATION IS ENDING FROM W TO E ATTM...AND MOST OF IT SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE CWA BY PACKAGE ISSUANCE. THERE MAY BE SOME SPITS OF
-RA/-SN/DZ/FZDZ AROUND...AND WILL WATCH TRENDS IN THE RADAR/OBS TO
SEE IF ANYTHING WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE EARLY MORNING
PERIOD. WILL LIKELY KEEP A 20 OR 30 POP GOING (MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z). IF FZDZ HANGS AROUND...MAY OPT TO EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADV
A LITTLE LONGER FOR SOME AREAS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
THROUGH EARLY AFTN AS WELL...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL WITH THAT.
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY WHILE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING. PRES GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS AS LOW MOVES
AWAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE STOUTLY THIS
MORNING...AND PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A WIND
ADVISORY HAD ALREADY BEEN POSTED EARLIER...AND I WILL KEEP IT GOING
FOR TODAY. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THINK A FEW AREAS WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30KT FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD FAIRLY STEADY TODAY AFTER THE INITIAL
FALL-OFF THIS MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO FALL SLOWLY AFTER THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT AS BEST GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE N AND NE OF MY
CWA. WILL EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY DURING THE EVENING.
RATHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES
SHOULD GO P/CLOUDY. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS...WITH A
FEW LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE CITY.
TUESDAY MAY NOT ACTUALLY BE A BAD DAY...WITH P/CLOUDY TO M/SUNNY
SKIES AND A WARM SLY WIND. TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 40S
WITH EVEN A 50 DEGREE READING OR TWO POSSIBLE.
THINGS GO BACK DOWNHILL LATE TUE NIGHT AS NEXT STRONG UPPER TROF
APPROACHES. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING ANOTHER
NOR'EASTER OFF THE CAROLINA/DELMARVA COAST WED. IT IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TO ABOUT LONG ISLAND AROUND 00Z
THURS. FOR NOW IT JUST LOOKS LIKE A WET AND VERY WINDY SYSTEM. COULD
SEE SOME SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE...AND WILL INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE
GRIDS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS HARD TO KNOW IF THAT WILL HAPPEN OR
NOT. STILL A FEW DAYS OUT...AND THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK MAY CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD, HOWEVER.
STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW HEADS TO OUR NORTH WILL BE A
CERTAINTY. STAY TUNED!
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF OUR DEPARTING NOREASTER WILL
EASILY ATTAIN GALE FORCE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHES BY 12Z TUE. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
STRONG WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM
MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON WED. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY AGAIN LATE WED
INTO THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE STAYED WITH THEIR BANKS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
FELL ACROSS AREA BASINS ON SUN. THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PRIOR TO CHANGEOVER TO RAIN INHIBITED GOOD RUNOFF. IN
ADDITION...TEMPS ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE
THE FLOOD THREAT WAS GREATEST...STAYED IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER
30S. THIS ALLOWED FOR LITTLE IF ANY RUNOFF FROM THE SNOWPACK.
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THOUGH AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR MID WEEK MAY BRING A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN WITH
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS NW FLOW
BRINGS DRY AIR IN BEFORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT.
SOUNDINGS DO GO BELOW ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS BY 12Z...BUT SOUNDING
DOES NOT SUPPORT ICE NUCLEI FORMATION...THUS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. NEXT PROBLEM...WILL BE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE DUE TO COLD ADVECTION AND A STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM. GUSTS TO 40 KT LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
&&
..................................................................
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVE...CTZ005>012
NJ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVE...NJZ002>006-011
NY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVE...NYZ067>081
MARINE...GALE WARNING...ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
GC
FXUS61 KOKX 152013
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
315 PM EST MON DEC 15 2003
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH
MIXING ALLOWED BY CLOUD BREAKS HAS RESULTED IN PEAK WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 40 KT AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AS BOTH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...SO WILL THE NW
WIND SPEEDS. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6
PM THIS EVE AND THE GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST COVERING THE WED/THU PRECIP EVENT...
AS PER NCEP'S LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEM THRU 42 HOURS. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES
THAT AFFECT THE QUANTITY AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP DEVELOP
STARTING 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL...WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ETA MODEL...LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LOW FURTHER
NORTH...WHICH SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE ETA MODEL SOLUTION...LEADS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH PLACES THE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE AXIS OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP. FOR TIMING...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...WOULD OCCUR WED
AFTN AND EVE. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN...A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS A LIKELY SCENARIO. BASED ON WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOW 12 HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WE
HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE A STATEMENT CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING FOR WED AFTN AND NIGHT AT THIS TIME. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED.
&&
.MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST COVERING THE FRI NIGHT/SAT EVENT...
I ADJUSTED THE TIMING...PRECIP TYPE AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEKEND. FOR TIMING...BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS...I STARTED AND ENDED THE PRECIP 6 HOURS EARLIER. BASED
ON A TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION...THE PRECIP TYPE WAS ADJUSTED TO
SHOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS ON A SW WIND FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BIG PROBLEMS
CONTINUE TO BE WINDS. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
ARE BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KT. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR WITH WIND OUT
OF THE W AND NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNINGS FOR EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO STORM FORCE
ON THE OCEAN ARE POSSIBLE TILL SUNSET WITH A HEALTHY MIXING LAYER.
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING WATER AWAY FROM THE
COAST...BLOWOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW TIDE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SOUND. DEPARTURES OF 3 TO 3 1/2
FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN SOUND...AND 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 FT ON THE
OCEAN AND HARBOR. WILL ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE
WESTERN SOUND. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 10 TO 14 FT ON THE
OCEAN...AND 4 TO 6 FT ON THE SOUND WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST. ONCE AGAIN...ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE STRONG WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM MOVE INTO THE WATERS ON WED. MODELS ARE RANGING IN
THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR EXACT LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE AND SPEED OF
MOVEMENT UP THE COAST...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR
ANOTHER GALE EVENT. S/SE GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY AGAIN FOR ALL
WATERS WED INTO THU...WITH HIGH SEAS BUILDING ON A LONG SE FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR WED
AFTN AND EVE. A STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING OF RIVERS...STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS. SEE THE MEDIUM RANGE
DISC FOR THE WED/THU PRECIP EVENT ABOVE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVE...CTZ005>012
NJ...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVE...
NJZ002>006-011
NY...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVE...NYZ067>081
MARINE...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
ANZ355-353-350-335-330-338.
$$
GC
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