MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2312
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 PM CST THU DEC 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE IN CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL
   NM
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 281851Z - 282345Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   ERN FOOTHILLS/IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS
   NWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE. SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR ARE LIKELY
   TOWARDS 00Z ALONG AND W OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED
   OVER E-CNTRL AZ. VERY STRONG NLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL JETS IN OBSERVED
   12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN CA/WRN NV SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DIGGING OF THE
   ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...12Z NAM/GFS
   AND 15Z RUC GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING THE JETS ALONG
   THE ERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS NRN NM/CNTRL CO IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. IN
   ADDITION...AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SRN NM...IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD
   FURTHER ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS
   UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT INCREASES...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
   CONTINUE AS WELL WITH 20 TO 30 KTS OF ELY 1-2 KM AGL FLOW PER DENVER
   AND PUEBLO VAD PROFILERS/AMDAR. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN
   ONGOING LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL CO MTNS AND THIS WILL
   LIKELY DEVELOP DOWNSLOPE AS LIFT/SATURATION SLOWLY INCREASES.
   
   FURTHER S...LIFT FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IMPULSE IN CONJUCTION
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
   ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL NM
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS MAY REACH THE SRN/ERN
   SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IN NRN NM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF ANY
   CONVECTION...RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
   WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AOB FREEZING. SNOWFALL RATES WOULD
   LIKELY REACH 2 IN/HR WITHIN ANY TSTMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 12/28/2006
   
   
   ...NOTICE...
   SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
   SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
   TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
   FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   40180556 40000494 39500469 38310448 37400438 36070460
   35390506 35200564 35410624 35880615 36530518 37040503
   37910523 39090569 39740572 

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Storm Prediction Center