NWS SRRS PRODUCTS FOR:
               2004122000 to 2004122512


FXUS63 KIND 200833
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 AM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW EVENT MID WEEK.
NEAR 08Z STILL SOME LAKE CLOUDS ACROSS NRN FORECAST AREA /FA/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENTERING WRN FA AS WARM ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY
E. TEMPS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...BUT GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH STRONG SYSTEM MID WEEK. IT IS MUCH DEEPER WITH
SFC LOW THAN ETA/CANADIAN AND LOOKS SUSPECT. HOWEVER A TONED DOWN
GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO ETA. WILL GO WITH ETA SOLUTION.
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FA BUT LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE DRY. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. BEST MOISTURE IS TO THE N BUT EVEN
THAT IS WEAK TO JUST WENT FLURRIES THERE. CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO
SLOW WARMTH TODAY...BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD STILL PUSH TEMPS NEAR
ETA NUMBERS MOST LOCATIONS.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE
SOME OVERNIGHT. AGAIN LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMS TO WORK WITH...SO
MOST OF FA WILL BE DRY. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC NRN FA AS IT IS CLOSER
TO SFC LOW AND WILL KEEP CONSISTENT FORECAST. MAY DROP TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO EARLY TONIGHT BUT THEN RAISE THEM BY MORNING.
DRY WX WILL THEN CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED WHEN POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM BEGINS TO INFLUENCE FA. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
AT LOWER LEVELS AS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE S.
ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ALL HAVE SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH NOW. UPPER
SUPPORT WORKS OUT AS WELL WITH OH VALLEY IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET.
MODEL CHANGES FROM 12Z TO 00Z A LITTLE CAUSE FOR CONCERN...AND 06Z
ETA SHIFTS THINGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THUS AREA
TARGETED FOR HEAVY SNOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN. WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN HWO AND GO HI POPS WED INTO THU...WITH HIGHEST POPS SRN
FA. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS BEFORE COMPLETELY
BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF FA.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CS

FXUS63 KIND 201956
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINTER STORM DEVELOPING FOR LATE
TUES INTO THURS.
IN THE SHORT TERM NOT MUCH GOING ON.  SOME MID CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT NO SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED.
WINTER STORM...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
ETA/GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SFC LOW
TRACK.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO IS STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW.  PER HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO DISCUSSIONS WILL OPT FOR A ETA/GFS
BLEND FOR TRACK AND LEAN TOWARD THE ETA FOR STRENGTH.  THERE ARE
SUSPICIONS THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
THEREFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SFC LOW.  THE SFC LOW MAKES A PASS
NEAR THE GULF PICKING UP LOTS OF MOISTURE TO DEPOSIT IN THE FORM OF
SNOW OVER THE IND CWA.  BY THURS MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVR SE OHIO
KEEPING SNOW IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THERMAL PROFILES
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST ALL SNOW.  DUE TO POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ISSUED WSW FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE PROGRESS AS POTENTIAL IS GOOD FOR UPGRADE TO
WARNING IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA LATER TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUESDAY
TO THURSDAY MORNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
SALLY

FXUS63 KIND 210255
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SHOWS DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS APPROACHING THE
AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUES BEFORE NEXT POLAR FRONT PASSES LATER TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT. WILL KEEP DRY FCST GOING AS MID/LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OFF OF ILX SOUNDING FEATURES A 600-800MB DRY LAYER.  EXPECT STEADY
OR RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER WEDS...BOTH NGM/ETA GENERATE
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP 06Z WEDS INTO 18Z WEDS DUE TO STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, SOME HINT OF DOWNWARD MOTION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER WEDS.  EVEN SO, IF MAIN BULK OF PRECIP WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS
WERE TO STAY SE OF THE CWA...ETA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 9 RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 70...MAINLY ON WEDS.  SEE NO REASON TO ALTER
THE CURRENT WATCH PRODUCT SINCE IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL
SCENARIO APPEARS ON TRACK. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY
ADDITIONAL SE TRENDS IN MAIN SFC-850MB LOW WEDS NIGHT SINCE THIS
COULD LIMIT TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
-------------------------------------------------------------------25
5 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINTER STORM DEVELOPING
FOR LATE TUES INTO THURS.
IN THE SHORT TERM NOT MUCH GOING ON.  SOME MID CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT NO SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED.
WINTER STORM...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
ETA/GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SFC LOW
TRACK.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO IS STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW.  PER HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO DISCUSSIONS WILL OPT FOR A ETA/GFS
BLEND FOR TRACK AND LEAN TOWARD THE ETA FOR STRENGTH.  THERE ARE
SUSPICIONS THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
THEREFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SFC LOW.  THE SFC LOW MAKES A PASS
NEAR THE GULF PICKING UP LOTS OF MOISTURE TO DEPOSIT IN THE FORM OF
SNOW OVER THE IND CWA.  BY THURS MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVR SE OHIO
KEEPING SNOW IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THERMAL PROFILES
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST ALL SNOW.  DUE TO POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ISSUED WSW FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE PROGRESS AS POTENTIAL IS GOOD FOR UPGRADE TO
WARNING IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA LATER TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUESDAY
TO THURSDAY MORNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
SALLY

FXUS63 KIND 210311
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SHOWS DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS APPROACHING THE
AREA TONIGHT/EARLY TUES. STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUES BEFORE NEXT POLAR FRONT PASSES LATER TUES
INTO TUES NIGHT. WILL KEEP DRY FCST GOING AS MID/LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OFF OF ILX SOUNDING FEATURES A 600-800MB DRY LAYER.  EXPECT STEADY
OR RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.
AS FOR HANDLING OF POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER WEDS...BOTH NGM/ETA GENERATE
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP 06Z WEDS INTO 18Z WEDS DUE TO STRONG
LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS. HOWEVER, SOME HINT OF DOWNWARD MOTION WITH
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER WEDS.  EVEN SO, IF MAIN BULK OF PRECIP WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THURS
WERE TO STAY SE OF THE CWA...ETA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 9 RANGE
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 70...MAINLY ON WEDS.  SEE NO REASON TO ALTER
THE CURRENT WATCH PRODUCT SINCE IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL
SCENARIO APPEARS ON TRACK. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY
ADDITIONAL SE TRENDS IN MAIN SFC-850MB LOW WEDS NIGHT SINCE THIS
COULD LIMIT TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
255 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WINTER STORM DEVELOPING
FOR LATE TUES INTO THURS.
IN THE SHORT TERM NOT MUCH GOING ON.  SOME MID CLOUDS PASSING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE CLOUDS WERE KEEPING A LID ON
TEMPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING BUT NO SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED.
WINTER STORM...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA.
ETA/GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SFC LOW
TRACK.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO IS STRENGTH OF THE SFC
LOW.  PER HPC AND SURROUNDING WFO DISCUSSIONS WILL OPT FOR A ETA/GFS
BLEND FOR TRACK AND LEAN TOWARD THE ETA FOR STRENGTH.  THERE ARE
SUSPICIONS THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK ISSUES AND
THEREFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENS THE SFC LOW.  THE SFC LOW MAKES A PASS
NEAR THE GULF PICKING UP LOTS OF MOISTURE TO DEPOSIT IN THE FORM OF
SNOW OVER THE IND CWA.  BY THURS MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVR SE OHIO
KEEPING SNOW IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THERMAL PROFILES
ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST ALL SNOW.  DUE TO POTENTIAL OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ISSUED WSW FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE PROGRESS AS POTENTIAL IS GOOD FOR UPGRADE TO
WARNING IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CWA LATER TOMORROW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUESDAY
TO THURSDAY MORNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
SALLY

FXUS63 KIND 210755
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO NORTH TEXAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM
ADVECTION MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...BUT BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER. MODELS DIFFER ON DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE NATION. THE ETA BRINGS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SHORT WAVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ETA HAS FRONTOGENESIS
DEVELOPING SOUTH PART OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY. FRONTOGENETIC AREA IS THEN PUSHED SOUTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. GFS HOLD BACK ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT
WAVE AND BRINGS A SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THAT LOW LIKELY TO BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...SO ETA PREFERRED.
WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO WATCH AS THIS TIME. ETA AND ITS
FRONTOGENSIS STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS HAS CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF...AND THUS SNOW...THAN
PREVIOUS RUN...BUT STILL HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY SNOW...MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY. QUITE COLD END OF THE
WEEK...BUT WARMING NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED MAINLY
LATE IN THE WEEK FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH LATE TUESDAY
TO THURSDAY MORNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 211953
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...
.DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OUR
SOUTHERN CWA.
ETA/GFS HAVE BEEN COMING MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER WITH EACH RUN
SO WILL USE MOSTLY A BLEND.  UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ALLOW A POTENT SFC SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO PICKING UP
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG THE WAY.  THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TREK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY SPREADING CHRISTMAS CHEER IN THE FORM OF SNOW.  SNOW
WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER VINCENNES AND SURROUNDING AREAS THEN
SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT.  THE SNOWBAND WILL REACH INDIANAPOLIS METRO
BY MORNING RUSH HOUR.  INTENSITY WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A LLJ HELP THINGS OUT.
EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW UNTIL EVENING.  STORM TOTALS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR AREA.  ON
THURSDAY THE ISSUE TURNS TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS INITIALLY ON EAST-WEST ROADS.
THURS AFTN AS WIND TURNS MORE NW...NORTH-SOUTH ROADS WILL BE
IMPACTED.  FINALLY...WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND SATURDAY MORNING...CAN
EXPECT READINGS JUST BELOW ZERO.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT
TO THURSDAY MORNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
SALLY

FXUS63 KIND 220804
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...SNOW WAS BEGINNING OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE IN
BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WAS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER MISSOURI. A
STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NEW MEXICO. SNOW WAS
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH INDIANA IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI WAS PROVIDING LIFT. MODELS HAVE GOOD
FRONTOGENSIS OVER SOUTH INDIANA.
GFS CONTINUES WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NM UPPER TROUGH. ETA HAS MOVED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH TENNESSEE AND EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
HEAVIER SNOW CONFINED TO SOUTH INDIANA TODAY. APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE OF BOTH MODELS...APPEARS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL RUN FROM AROUND BEDFORD TO WINCHESTER TONIGHT.
AGREE WITH HPC SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS.
LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND NO RISE TOMORROW. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 220806
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 AM EST WED DEC 22 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...SNOW WAS BEGINNING OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE IN
BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WAS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER MISSOURI. A
STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NEW MEXICO. SNOW WAS
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH INDIANA IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI WAS PROVIDING LIFT. MODELS HAVE GOOD
FRONTOGENSIS OVER SOUTH INDIANA.
GFS CONTINUES WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NM UPPER TROUGH. ETA HAS MOVED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH TENNESSEE AND EAST KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
HEAVIER SNOW CONFINED TO SOUTH INDIANA TODAY. APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LIFT FARTHER NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE OF BOTH MODELS...APPEARS A BAND
OF HEAVY SNOW WILL RUN FROM AROUND BEDFORD TO WINCHESTER TONIGHT.
AGREE WITH HPC SNOW AMOUNTS. SNOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL CAUSE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER WIND CHILLS.
LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO DROP
OFF LATE TONIGHT AND NO RISE TOMORROW. HAVE ADJUSTED GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY ALL BUT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 220804
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EST TUE DEC 21 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FAR NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...SNOW WAS BEGINNING OVER THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE IN
BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WAS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER MISSOURI. A
STRONGER UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NEW MEXICO. SNOW WAS
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH INDIANA IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER MISSOURI WAS PROVIDING LIFT. MODELS HAVE GOOD
FRONTOGENSIS OVER SOUTH INDIANA.
GFS CONTINUES WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NMT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TONIGHT NORTHWEST 1/4 OF CWA.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 221920
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EST WED DEC 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FCST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WINTER STORM AFFECTING
THE AREA. WL CONT ALL HEADLINES THRU THURS.
IN THE NR TERM...INITIAL WV HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL DIMINISHING OVR THE SERN CWA.
REPORTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OVR PARTS OF THE SE
CWA WITH THIS INITIAL WV. NEXT WV CURRENTLY MAKING THE TURN NE OVR
THE SRN PLAINS. SNOWFALL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THIS EVEN FM SW
TO NE ACRS THE AREA AS THE SECOND SYS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
PROGGED PWAT VALUES SUGGEST ANOTHER 10 INCHES OR SO PSBL TONIGHT IN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT LOOKS TO SET UP SOMEWHERE OVR THE SE HALF
OF THE CWA. APPEARS THAT THERE WL BE A PRETTY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
SIG PCPN...SO WL TAPER AMOUNTS OFF FARILY RAPIDLY INTO THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE OVR THE NW ZONES.
IN THE LTR PDS...APPEARS WV WL BE EXITING THE AREA BY THE MID MORN
HRS...SO SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF DURG THE MORN HRS. HOWEVER...AS
SFC SYS WRAPS UP TO THE E...WINDS WL PICK UP WHICH WL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRFTG DURG THE DAY THURS. MOST OF THE SIG PCPN
SHOULD BE OVR BY THURS EVEN...HOWEVER WITH AXIS OF UPPR TROF NOT
XPCTD TO PASS THRU TIL SOMETIME ON FRI...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF SOME FLURRIES UNTIL THEN.
PROGGED LO LVL THICKNESSES AND XPCTD SNOW COVER SUGGEST NGM MOS
GUIDANCE WL HAVE CUT CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVR THE SERN ZONES IN
THE LTR PDS. WL KNOCK OFF ABOUT 5-10 DEGS ON THE LOWS THURS
NIGHT...AND ABOUT 3-8 DEGS OFF OF THE HIGHS ON FRI. FRI NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH CLR SKIES...SNOW COVER...AND SFC RDG
OVHD...SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH -15F.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...WINTER STORM WARNING TIL 00Z FRI SE OF A COVINGTON-TIPTON LN.
.IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 00Z FRI NW OF A COVINGTON-TIPTON
LN.
&&
$$
JAS

FXUS63 KIND 230738
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004
...WINTER STORM WARNING ALL BUT NORTHWEST TODAY...
.DISCUSSION...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER ALL BUT
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. LIKELY THAT WARNING
WILL NEED TO BE CANCELED BY LATE MORNING. WARNING AND ADVISORY WILL
BE CANCELED OVER THE NORTHWEST.
LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OHIO BY
LATE MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NEARING THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING. SNOW STILL HEAVY EAST PART OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALREADY 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW ON GROUND SOUTHEAST HALF OF
AREA. SATELLITE HAS CLOUD TOPS WARMING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH PASSING BY 13Z OR 14Z...SO SNOW INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NOT BIG DIFFERENCES WITH MODELS. A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL BRING
BACK SOME CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT FLURRIES IN FORECAST LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS. GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH BACK NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. LEAVING LATE PERIODS DRY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT. HEAVY SNOW COVER SOUTHEAST
HALF OF AREA SHOULD RADIATE EXTREMELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
CLOUDS COULD TEMPER MINS. HAVE GONE TOWARD ETA12 MINS WHICH APPEARS
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SNOW COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DOWN THE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW COVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IN...WINTER STORM WARNING TIL 00Z FRI SE OF A SULLIVAN-TIPTON LN.
.IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TIL 00Z FRI HOWARD AND TIPTON CO.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 231932
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004
DISCUSSION...
FCST FOCUS ON WIND CHILLS NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH MAX/MIN TEMPS.
ALL 12Z MOS GUIDANCE DID NOT INGEST NEW SNOW THAT FELL OVERNIGHT.
ONLY GUIDANCE PRODUCT THAT CAPTURED SNOW APPEARS TO BE ETA 2M TEMPS
SO WILL USE THIS ALONG WITH CURRENT FCST AS GUIDANCE.  ALL IN ALL
CONSENSUS FAVORS ETA SOLUTION IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD AND AS ONLY
GUIDANCE THAT CAPTURES SNOWFIELD WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC LOW WILL LIFT AWAY ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
WESTERLY AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-8KTS AND GIVEN
FCST LOWS, WIND CHILLS SHOULD FALL INTO THE -10 TO -16F RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT MAY BE BORDERLINE
BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS THIS COLD IN A LONG TIME...LATER TONIGHT,
SKIES WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLDS INCREASE SOME IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SYSTEM ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON. TIME HTS INDICATE DRY 850-750MB
LAYER SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL UNDERCUT ALL
MOS GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES.  SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FRI INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD PLUMMET
AFTER SUNSET CHRISTMAS EVE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER, ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS COULD PLAY HAVOC ON MIN
TEMPS SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST AND ETA 2M TEMPS.  THIS IS
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.
CHRISTMAS DAY...EXPECT MOCLDY/PTSUNNY DAY AS WAA CLOUDINESS REMAINS
ACROSS AREA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO
AT SOME POINT. WILL FCST HIGHS NEAR ETA GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW
OTHER MOS GUIDANCE.
BEYOND CHRISTMAS...CONSENSUS FAVORS ECMWF MODEL AT THIS POINT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR A DRIER REGIME. EXPECT WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY PUT OFF ANY WARM UP TO NEAR AVG UNTIL
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM AND WET
PATTERN BUT HAS SLOWED ITS TIMING ON ANY SYSTEM.  GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
SNOW FIELD FEEL THAT MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW GUIDANCE INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH ANY SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF AREA UNTIL BEYOND
THURS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ALL AREAS
UNTIL 4 PM EST.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
&&
$$
DS

FXUS63 KIND 240738
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLD TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
QUIET WEATHER FINALLY SETTLES IN AFTER THE BIG SNOWSTORM.  MAIN
CONCERN NOW TURNS TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM.  WITH
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW INCHES TO A FEW FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
THROUGHOUT THE CWA TEMPS ARE BOUND TO FALL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT.  ETA/GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A
BLEND.  LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  LOTS OF COLD AIR EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROF.  COLDEST AIR SEEMS TO BE UPON US TONIGHT THEN WARM ADVECTION
RAPIDLY TAKES OVER AS UPPER SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY PUSHED EAST BY H25 JET
CORE.  THAT COMBINED WITH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN A VERY COLD
CHRISTMAS MORNING.  CURRENTLY A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10AM.  REACHING CRITERIA MAY BE DIFFICULT AS WIND HAS RELAXED
CONSIDERABLY.  WILL OPT TO CONTINUE HEADLINES IN ORDER TO KEEP A
HEIGHTENED AWARENESS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10AM
EST ENTIRE CWA.
&&
$$

FXUS63 KIND 241815
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON COLD TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS.
WILL USE A BLEND OF ETA/GFS MODELS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE. TEMP
GUIDANCE WILL BE WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON GFS WHICH IS HANDLING HOURLY
TEMPS MUCH BETTER THAN ANY OTHER...ALONG WITH GOING FCST NUMBERS
WHICH VERIFIED REASONABLY WELL LAST NIGHT.
SFC HIGH CENTER AXIS IS NOW APPROACHING SW INDIANA. AIR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM WITH SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. MEANWHILE, WAA
CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IA, WESTERN WI.
TONIGHT WILL BE A TRICKY FCST FOR AIR TEMPERATURES. AS SFC RIDGE
AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET. I EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO OCCUR NEAR
MIDNIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF MID CLD DECK WHICH ALONG
WITH LIGHT SE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 5KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS STEADY OR EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AS USUAL,
MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM. EVEN THE GFS WHICH HAS HOURLY TEMPS
FCST WELL IS ONLY FCSTING LOWS OF -3F FOR IND. CURRENT FCST LOOKS
GOOD WITH COLDEST TEMPS SE OF A MUNCIE TO IND TO VINCENNES LINE
WHERE CLDS WILL BE THINNEST AND IN PROXIMITY TO SFC RIDGE AXIS/LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH 06-9Z. THOSE AREAS COULD DROP INTO THE -10 TO -15F
RANGE. WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TONIGHT WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 5KTS/CALM.
TOMORROW, BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER AND TIME HTS SHOW SATURATION IN THIS LAYER TOWARD 00Z SUN.
WILL INSERT 20-30 PERCENT CHCS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-70 LATER SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY SAT NIGHT. LIFT IS
TRANSITORY AND MODEST SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMS OR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP.
BEYOND CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA SUN
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL PROLONG THE COLDER THAN AVG TEMPS. GFS
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. STILL EXPECT A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH SOME CHC FOR RAIN BY
THURS OR FRI.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$

FXUS63 KIND 250135
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
835 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004
DISCUSSION...FOR MOST PART EARLIER FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
SOUND...BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND FACT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY...WILL HAVE TO CUT MINS A FEW
DEGREES TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
KWIATKOWSKI

FXUS63 KIND 250806
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
306 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON TEMPS IN THE SHORT
TERM.
ETA/GFS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT THIS AM.  WILL CONTINUE TO USE A
BLEND.  MAIN DISAGREEMENT IS WITH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE GTLKS REGION.  GFS HAS SOME QPF WITH PASSAGE WHILE THE
ETA REMAINS DRY.  WILL GO WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLN OF FLURRIES
MOSTLY BECAUSE TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW MOSTLY MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE.  AFTER 00Z ATMS MOISTENS UP A LITTLE MORE AND NORTHERN 1/4
OF THE CWA HAS SOME DECENT OMEGA ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE SO
WILL UP TO LOW CHANCE IN THAT AREA.
HAVE CUT MOS TEMPS A BIT DUE TO SNOWPACK.
IN THE LONGER TERM...GRADUAL WARM UP IS IN STORE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPS GETTING INTO THE 40S.  ASIDE FROM TWEAKING TEMPS HERE AND
THERE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SALLY