FXUS63 KPAH 202120
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH WINTER EVENT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
TRACK OF THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS TUE NIGHT AND WED. MAIN DYNAMICAL
FORCING BEGINS OVERNIGHT TUE ALONG THE SFC FRONT...WHICH WILL BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLY H85 JET OVER
50 KTS PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z WED. COUPLING OF UPPER JET STREAMS
TO OUR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST WILL AID IN UPWARD MOTION...AND
PRECIP WILL BE WELL UNDER WAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY DAWN WED.
MODELS ALSO IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMP PROFILES. GFS HAS
COOLED VERY CLOSE TO THE ETA SOLUTION. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS LIQUID
OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE QUAD STATE REGION TUE
NIGHT...BUT WILL QUICKLY GO OVER TO A MIXED BAG...AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY AROUND 12Z ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. EXPECT A QUICK
2-4 INCHES OVER ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z WED.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME HEAVY OVER NORTHWEST KY/SRN IL AND SW IN
DURING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WED. FORECAST MUCH FUZZIER OVER OUR SE
COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY STAY LIQUID THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
EAST OF THE LAKES REGION...BUT SHOULD GO OVER TO ICE/SNOW BEFORE
EVENING. COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ICE/SNOW HERE ALSO...ESP WED
EVENING...SO DECIDED TO BLANKET THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. IF THESE 12Z RUNS END
UP BECOMING REALITY (BIG IF THERE) THEN WE WOULD SEE AN HISTORIC
TYPE OF EVENT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH OVER 8 INCHES OF
SNOW. RECORD DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL IS AROUND 9 INCHES IN EVV.
TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...WE MAY GET CAUGHT IN THE DEFORMATION
(COMMA HEAD) WRAP AROUND PRECIP WED NIGHT. OF COURSE...THIS WOULD BE
ALL SNOW (ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES)...AND THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING
OVER 20 MPH. THIS WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
WHATEVER SNOW DOES FALL. AND TO TAKE IT A STEP FURTHER...IF WE DO
GET A FRESH SNOW/ICE COVER ON THE GROUND...WE WILL SEE TEMPS DOWN
CLOSE TO ZERO FRI MORNING AND XMAS MORNING. WILL GO 0 TO 5 FOR NOW
ON FRI MINS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
GM
 

FXUS63 KPAH 210945
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WINTER EVENT FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN COLD TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
CHRISTMAS.
ETA AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
BRINGING US OUR FIRST WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON...AND THEY HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON TIMING AND VARYING A LITTLE ON SNOW
AMOUNTS.  OVERALL FORECAST USES A GFS/ETA/HPC SNOW AMOUNTS BLEND.
WATCH ISSUED YESTERDAY WILL BE FINE TUNED TODAY...WITH BASICALLY
NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN A WATCH FROM 06Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  SOUTHEAST THIRD OF COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE WATCH 12Z
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...WITH THE RAIN AREAS...AND THE RAIN
MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW AREAS...NOT CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AND
ACCUMULATING UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY
ACCUMULATING TO 2 TO 5 INCHES.  RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.  ONLY THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT (AN INCH OR LESS)...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SEEING A MIXTURE AS PRECIP BEGINS.  WE EXPECT IT TO SNOW IN EARNEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST REALLY FILTERS INTO
THE REGION.  MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z WEDNESDAY
AND 00Z THURSDAY...WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.   LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
THURSDAY.  FORECAST IS DRY FOR THURSDAY ONWARD.
VERY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY ANY SNOW PACK ACROSS THE FA.
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATE FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.  ON THURSDAY TEMPS WILL NOT
RECOVER MUCH...THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE LOWS AT LEAST IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS.  MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...STAYING BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
VALUES DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW PACK. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATING
SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU FOR
HENDERSON AND UNION COUNTIES...AND FOR REST OF WEST KY 12Z WED THRU
06Z THU.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT NEW MADRID AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU...WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NEW
MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FROM 12Z WED THRU 06 THU.
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU.
IN...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT 06Z WED THRU 06Z THU.
&&
$$
RST

FXUS63 KPAH 212147
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE WINTER EVENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN COLD TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
CHRISTMAS.
ETA AND GFS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
BRINGING US OUR FIRST WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON...AND THEY HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ON TIMING AND VARYING A LITTLE ON SNOW
AMOUNTS.  OVERALL FORECAST USES A GFS/ETA/HPC SNOW AMOUNTS BLEND.
EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN NOW OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO WRN KY AND THE MO BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS EVENING...AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TRUDGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
CURRENT FREEZING LINE AT THE SFC IS LOCATED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MO. THIS LINE WILL SINK SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPS OVER OUR NW COUNTIES
BEFORE THE PRECIP MAKES IT UP THAT FAR NORTH. EVERYWHERE ELSE...RAIN
WILL BE THE STORY THIS EVENING. REALLY BELIEVE THE FREEZING LINE
SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SUNRISE WED...BUT
THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN A BIT ON ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IN
RESPONSE TO SFC WAVE DEVELOPING WELL UPSTREAM. IT MAY TIL 18Z-21Z
WHEN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SEE FREEZING TEMPS. EVEN THEN...WARM
LAYER ALOFT PROGGED BY THE GFS MAY KEEP A WINTRY MIX THERE MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIP AMY ACTUALLY BE BROKEN INTO TWO DISTINCT AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON...WITH ONE MAIN AREA ALONG THE FRONT OFF TO OUR EAST...AND
ANOTHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THIS SECOND COMMA HEAD AREA OF SNOW WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WED EVENING...AND BRING MORE ACCUMULATING
SNOWS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
MODELS ACTUALLY POINT TO SOME CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ALOFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER WITH THE
EVENING SYSTEM. OF COURSE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THIS
ONE...BUT IF IT OCCURRED...MOST LIKELY AREAS AFFECTED WOULD BE SRN
IL/WRN KY AND SW IN. ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WOULD ADD LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW TO ANY TOTALS...AND WOULD BE VERY
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATIONS.
WATCH ISSUED YESTERDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...WITH BASICALLY NORTHWEST 3/4 OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN A
WARNING FROM 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE (COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER).
SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF AREA WILL HAVE THE WARNING IN EFFECT 12Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. IN THIS REGION...TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL
TO THE FREEZING MARK WEDNESDAY. STILL THIS AREA HAS THE POSSIBILITY
OF PICKING UP SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE...AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR FINALLY
RUSHES IN.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY ANY SNOW PACK ACROSS THE FA.
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATE FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THURSDAY MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
RECOVER MUCH...THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE WILL SEE LOWS AT LEAST IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS. TEMPS FRI/SAT SHOULD STAY
BELOW GFS GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW PACK. SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT 06Z WED THRU 12Z THU NORTHWEST
OF A MURRAY TO GREENVILLE LINE...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR REST OF KY
ZONES 12Z WED THRU 12Z THU.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT ALL COUNTIES 06Z WED THRU 12Z
THU.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT ALL COUNTIES 06Z WED THRU 12Z
THU.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT ALL COUNTIES 06Z WED THRU 12Z
THU.
&&
$$
MEFFERT

FXUS63 KPAH 220730
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ALTERATIONS NEEDED.
NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY
SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET WAS FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR
BLUFF...TO CAPE GIRARDEAU...ACROSS ANNA AND JONESBORO IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...INTO WILLIAMSON AND SALINE COUNTIES. UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED IN THESE AREAS. RAIN / SNOW LINE APPEARS
TO RUN FROM JUST NORTH OF BLOOMFIELD MISSOURI...TO BETWEEN CAIRO AND
PADUCAH...TO SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE. RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF WEST
KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...MAINLY
SLEET OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. UP IN THIS AREA...MUCH DRIER LOW TROP AIR
HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD...AND LIMITED PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
WILL MAINTAIN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAY HAVE TO EDGE UP OUR SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR HEAVY SNOW AXIS WE HAVE
PROGGED. ALREADY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT...WITH LIGHTNING AND THUNDER
REPORTED OVER SE MISSOURI. SFC LOW PRESSURE BY 18Z SHOULD BE OVER
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SCNTRL
KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SHOOT UP INTO OHIO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR THE MOST
PART...AND CHANGE ALL LOCATIONS TO SNOW...WITH SLEET POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...AS PROFILES JUST OFF THE DECK SHOW JUST BELOW ZERO. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...IF TEMPS CAN GET TO 32
WHILE IT IS STILL RAINING...AND BEFORE A CHANGE OVER OCCURS. ONLY
QUESTION MARK AREA IS SE PART OF FA...WHERE MORE OF A MIX MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT MAIN EVENTS MAY COME IN TWO ROUNDS. FIRST
THROUGH MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SECOND TONIGHT IN WRAP
AROUND SEGMENT OF STORM SYSTEM. THUS BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE...EXPECT SOME FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
AREA...BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING INJECTED INTO THIS
SYSTEM...AND DURATION. IN HEAVY SNOW AXIS...FROM SW IN INTO SRN IL
AND PART OF SE MO...EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL TAPER
AMOUNTS DOWN UP ALONG I 64 CORRIDOR...AND IN WEST KY...WHERE MORE OF
A MIX MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND HOPKINSVILLE
AREA. WILL MOVE THE SNOW OUT OF ALL THE REGION EXCEPT THE EXTREME
EAST BY 12Z THUR...AND EVEN THEN...JUST KEEP A LOW CHC EARLY
MORNING. THEN...MUCH COLDER WEATHER AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP STILL APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
&&
$$
CN
 

FXUS63 KPAH 221324
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
725 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004
.UPDATE...
INCREDIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNING. NARROW SWATH OF 8 TO 10
INCHES REPORTED FROM NEAR JACKSON MISSOURI TO WEST FRANKFORT AND
HARRISBURG ILLINOIS TO NEAR PRINCETON INDIANA. PERSISTENT BANDING
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT HAS RESULTED IN
ENHANCED SNOWFALL TOTALS. PRECIP WAS MIXING NOW AT HOPKINSVILLE AND
EXPECT A CHANGE OVER THERE AS WELL. COLDER ETA DOING A LITTLE BETTER
WITH NEAR SURFACE COLD AIR.
AGREE WITH EARLIER SWOMCD FROM SPC THAT THERE MAY BE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN SNOWFALL RATES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. BEST
H7 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES SHIFT EAST WITH TIME PER THE RUC AND
ETA40...SO THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
WILL CLEAN UP THE ZONES FOR TODAY...AND MENTION ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS FOR TODAY...AND CONTINUE WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...AS WE STILL EXPECT A 2ND SURGE OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH
BACKSIDE STORM SYSTEM SNOW.
&&
.130 AM DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...JUST SOME MINOR ALTERATIONS NEEDED.
NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF HEAVY
SNOW...MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET WAS FROM JUST NORTH OF POPLAR
BLUFF...TO CAPE GIRARDEAU...ACROSS ANNA AND JONESBORO IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...INTO WILLIAMSON AND SALINE COUNTIES. UP TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION REPORTED IN THESE AREAS. RAIN / SNOW LINE APPEARS
TO RUN FROM JUST NORTH OF BLOOMFIELD MISSOURI...TO BETWEEN CAIRO AND
PADUCAH...TO SOUTH OF EVANSVILLE. RAIN CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF WEST
KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...MAINLY
SLEET OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. UP IN THIS AREA...MUCH DRIER LOW TROP AIR
HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD...AND LIMITED PRECIP EFFICIENCY.
WILL MAINTAIN OUR WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAY HAVE TO EDGE UP OUR SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR HEAVY SNOW AXIS WE HAVE
PROGGED. ALREADY CONVECTIVE ELEMENT...WITH LIGHTNING AND THUNDER
REPORTED OVER SE MISSOURI. SFC LOW PRESSURE BY 18Z SHOULD BE OVER
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SCNTRL
KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN SHOOT UP INTO OHIO BY 12Z
THURSDAY. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE ARCTIC AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR THE MOST
PART...AND CHANGE ALL LOCATIONS TO SNOW...WITH SLEET POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...AS PROFILES JUST OFF THE DECK SHOW JUST BELOW ZERO. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...IF TEMPS CAN GET TO 32
WHILE IT IS STILL RAINING...AND BEFORE A CHANGE OVER OCCURS. ONLY
QUESTION MARK AREA IS SE PART OF FA...WHERE MORE OF A MIX MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL HAVE HIGH POPS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT MAIN EVENTS MAY COME IN TWO ROUNDS. FIRST
THROUGH MIDDAY / EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SECOND TONIGHT IN WRAP
AROUND SEGMENT OF STORM SYSTEM. THUS BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE...EXPECT SOME FAIRLY HEFTY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
AREA...BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING INJECTED INTO THIS
SYSTEM...AND DURATION. IN HEAVY SNOW AXIS...FROM SW IN INTO SRN IL
AND PART OF SE MO...EXPECT 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL TAPER
AMOUNTS DOWN UP ALONG I 64 CORRIDOR...AND IN WEST KY...WHERE MORE OF
A MIX MAY HOLD DOWN OVERALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND HOPKINSVILLE
AREA. WILL MOVE THE SNOW OUT OF ALL THE REGION EXCEPT THE EXTREME
EAST BY 12Z THUR...AND EVEN THEN...JUST KEEP A LOW CHC EARLY
MORNING. THEN...MUCH COLDER WEATHER AS STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES CONTROL.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP STILL APPEARS TO BE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
&&
$$
CN

FXUS63 KPAH 222103
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
A WINTER STORM OF NEAR HISTORIC PROPORTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION TONIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGE AS OF MID
AFTERNOON SHOWS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY SPREADING
BACK INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. GROUND REPORTS
INDICATE THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET OVER A PORTION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM MAYFIELD TO OWENSBORO...WITH SNOW WEST OF THAT LINE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE APPROACH OF A MATURING CYCLONIC STORM
CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAD TAKEN
HOLD...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 20S.
THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE GFS WAS THE FIRST MODEL TO PICK UP ON THIS SECOND
SEPARATE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...AND WE CONTINUE TO PREFER THIS
MODEL FOR THE MOST PART. WHILE STORM TRACKS AND QPF TOTALS ON BOTH
THE ETA AND GFS ARE SIMILAR...THE ETA DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL WARM INTRUSION NEAR 800 MB...WHILE THE GFS
MOISTURE FORECAST IS PREFERRED. TAKING THE APPARENT STRENGTHS FROM
BOTH MODELS EQUATES TO A FORECAST OF MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MURRAY TO MADISONVILLE...ALTHOUGH THIS LINE
MAY WAIVER 20 OR 30 MILES THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. QUITE
FRANKLY...WE COULD EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WITH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH AND NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
SNOW.
AS FAR AS AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED...WE BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM VIENNA AND GOLCONDA ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST
ACROSS HENDERSON KENTUCKY...AND EVANSVILLE AND PETERSBURG INDIANA.
FRESH SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA...WITH A FEW AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT. NEW SNOW TOTALS SHOULD
TAPER OFF TO ABOUT 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SNOW TOTALS WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF
SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHEST SNOW BAND WITH THE EXPECTED ICING OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. KEEP IN MIND...THESE TOTALS ARE NEW
SNOW AND DO NOT INCLUDE SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL ONLY
HELP TO FURTHER HINDER TRAVEL OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER ON THURSDAY. AFTER THE
SNOW ENDS...THE MAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE GENERALLY GOING
WITH A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND ETA MOS GUIDANCE. KEEP IN MIND
THOUGH THAT IF WINDS GO COMPLETELY CALM AND SKIES TOTALLY CLEAR...
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE MUCH...MUCH COLDER.
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO ADDRESS THIS IN GREATER DETAIL ONCE THE
STORM SYSTEM IS NO LONGER AN ISSUE.
A MOISTURE STARVED MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. WITH MOISTURE LACKING TO THE
SYSTEM...A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ALL THAT IS FORECAST...WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF EVEN A FLURRY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BY
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM BY THE END
OF THE DAY...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET UP OVER THE SNOWPACK
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO CHRISTMAS MORNING LOWS MAY APPROACH RECORDS OF -5
AT PAH AND -7 AT EVV...BOTH FROM 1983. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING
FREEZING BY SUNDAY. AGAIN...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LIFE OF THE
SNOWPACK.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
MORE ENERGY TOWARD THE AREA...AND OPENING UP THE GULF.  FOLLOWED THE
ECMWF AND HPC/S LEAD IN KEEPING SURFACE RIDGING IN THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...AND KEEPING THE UPPER ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  BOTTOM LINE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES
&&
$$
RJP/DRS

FXUS63 KPAH 230832
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004
.DISCUSSION...
TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL FOR THIS AREA IS WINDING DOWN. THE 24 HOUR
SNOWFALL RECORD HAS BEEN TOPPLED AT PAH /SEE RERPAH/...AND THE
SEASONAL SNOWFALL NORMAL HAS BEEN EXCEEDED WITH JUST THIS EVENT.
BOTH EVV AND PAH HAVE 13 INCHES ON THE GROUND EVEN AFTER SOME
SETTLING. MAIN PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS BLOWING AND DRIFTING...WITH
MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE TO SMALLER VEHICLES. REPORTS OF DRIFTS FROM 40
TO 60 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THINGS RETURN TO NORMAL...THE
MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE TURNS TO WIND CHILLS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
BUILDS IN...COURTESY OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 08Z.
GIVEN THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD LINE...ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHARP CLEARING LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH WAS EASILY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DESPITE THE SUN...DEEP SNOWPACK AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE TEMP RISE TODAY...MAYBE JUST SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE MORNING LOW.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PROJECTED WIND CHILLS WILL REACH CRITERIA IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN IL AND
SE MISSOURI...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL HEADLINE THE WIND CHILLS IN THE ZONES AND
HIT THEM HARD IN THE HWO. ACTUAL LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN MOST
AREAS. ETA/GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
AREA AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY SOME CLOUDINESS. THE
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED BRISK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING INTO A FREE FALL.
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH DEEP SNOWPACK...TEMPS WILL NOT
RESPOND STRONGLY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON COULD BE
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RECORD LOW OF MINUS 5 COULD BE REACHED AT PAH IF SKIES MANAGE TO
STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO ANOTHER PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING. ETA SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY
CASE...ALMOST ALL MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE NGM MOS. WILL GO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ETA
MOS...WHICH IS THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE.
A WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE RATE OF WARMING WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE PRESENCE OF SNOWCOVER. THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TOO WARM CONSIDERING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
REMAIN. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...WHICH
WILL HELP THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION WITH RIVERS STILL HIGH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE
MO...NONE
IL...NONE
IN...NONE
&&
$$
MY

FXUS63 KPAH 230859
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER FURTHER COORDINATION WITH ILX...WILL REPLACE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING WITH A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL NOON.
THIS WILL ALSO ADDRESS THE DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEM...WHICH IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL FOR THIS AREA IS WINDING DOWN. THE 24 HOUR
SNOWFALL RECORD HAS BEEN TOPPLED AT PAH /SEE RERPAH/...AND THE
SEASONAL SNOWFALL NORMAL HAS BEEN EXCEEDED WITH JUST THIS EVENT.
BOTH EVV AND PAH HAVE 13 INCHES ON THE GROUND EVEN AFTER SOME
SETTLING. MAIN PROBLEM AT THIS TIME IS BLOWING AND DRIFTING...WITH
MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE TO SMALLER VEHICLES. REPORTS OF DRIFTS FROM 40
TO 60 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE THINGS RETURN TO NORMAL...THE
MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE TURNS TO WIND CHILLS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
BUILDS IN...COURTESY OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 08Z.
GIVEN THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD LINE...ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHARP CLEARING LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH WAS EASILY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DESPITE THE SUN...DEEP SNOWPACK AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE TEMP RISE TODAY...MAYBE JUST SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE MORNING LOW.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PROJECTED WIND CHILLS WILL REACH CRITERIA IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN IL AND
SE MISSOURI...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL HEADLINE THE WIND CHILLS IN THE ZONES AND
HIT THEM HARD IN THE HWO. ACTUAL LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN MOST
AREAS. ETA/GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
AREA AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY SOME CLOUDINESS. THE
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED BRISK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING INTO A FREE FALL.
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH DEEP SNOWPACK...TEMPS WILL NOT
RESPOND STRONGLY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON COULD BE
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RECORD LOW OF MINUS 5 COULD BE REACHED AT PAH IF SKIES MANAGE TO
STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO ANOTHER PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING. ETA SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY
CASE...ALMOST ALL MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE NGM MOS. WILL GO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ETA
MOS...WHICH IS THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE.
A WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE RATE OF WARMING WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE PRESENCE OF SNOWCOVER. THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TOO WARM CONSIDERING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
REMAIN. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...WHICH
WILL HELP THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION WITH RIVERS STILL HIGH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
MO...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
IL...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
IN...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
&&
$$
MY

FXUS63 KPAH 231056
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO SNOWFALL AMOUNT AT EVV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CST THU DEC 23 2004
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER FURTHER COORDINATION WITH ILX...WILL REPLACE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING WITH A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL NOON.
THIS WILL ALSO ADDRESS THE DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEM...WHICH IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
TREMENDOUS SNOWFALL FOR THIS AREA IS WINDING DOWN. THE 24 HOUR
SNOWFALL RECORD HAS BEEN TOPPLED AT PAH /SEE RERPAH/...AND THE
SEASONAL SNOWFALL NORMAL HAS BEEN EXCEEDED WITH JUST THIS EVENT. EVV
SNOWFALL WAS 19 INCHES...AND PAH 14 INCHES. MAIN PROBLEM AT THIS
TIME IS BLOWING AND DRIFTING...WITH MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE TO SMALLER
VEHICLES. REPORTS OF DRIFTS FROM 40 TO 60 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
FROM SW INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE
THINGS RETURN TO NORMAL...THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE TURNS TO WIND
CHILLS AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS IN...COURTESY OF APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...EXPECT RAPID CLEARING THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 08Z.
GIVEN THE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUD LINE...ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHARP CLEARING LINE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH WAS EASILY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DESPITE THE SUN...DEEP SNOWPACK AND COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE TEMP RISE TODAY...MAYBE JUST SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THE MORNING LOW.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PROJECTED WIND CHILLS WILL REACH CRITERIA IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN IL AND
SE MISSOURI...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY PER COORD WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WILL HEADLINE THE WIND CHILLS IN THE ZONES AND
HIT THEM HARD IN THE HWO. ACTUAL LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR ZERO IN MOST
AREAS. ETA/GFS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE
AREA AROUND 12Z...WHICH WILL BE PRECEDED BY SOME CLOUDINESS. THE
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED BRISK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
FROM GOING INTO A FREE FALL.
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...WITH DEEP SNOWPACK...TEMPS WILL NOT
RESPOND STRONGLY TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON COULD BE
CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH STAYS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.
RECORD LOW OF MINUS 5 COULD BE REACHED AT PAH IF SKIES MANAGE TO
STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THIS IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO ANOTHER PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING. ETA SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ANY
CASE...ALMOST ALL MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE NGM MOS. WILL GO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ETA
MOS...WHICH IS THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE.
A WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR NEXT WEEK AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE RATE OF WARMING WILL
BE SLOWED BY THE PRESENCE OF SNOWCOVER. THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK IS LIKELY TOO WARM CONSIDERING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
REMAIN. THE WARMER WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...WHICH
WILL HELP THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION WITH RIVERS STILL HIGH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
MO...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
IL...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
IN...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON
&&
$$
MY

FXUS63 KPAH 232216
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004
.SHORT TERM (DAYS 1-4)...
HUGE SNOWBAND WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS TODAY AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE BEGAN TO ENCOURAGE A LITTLE MELTING ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
TEMPS MANAGED TO GET TO THE UPPER TEENS EXCEPT LOWER 20S IN THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF KENTUCKY. RECORD BREAKING WINTER SYSTEM RAPIDLY
MOVED OUT TODAY AND LEFT WINDS IN ITS WAKE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN FCST.
THE ACTIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH A MINOR S/WV PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH FRI MORNING AND USHER IN A SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FCST AREA FOR
MOST OF FRI NITE. IF THE SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER /POSSIBLY RECORD LOWS/ ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING. WE ARE CONTINUING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA. WHILE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WE MAY REACH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRI NITE...WE DID NOT THINK CRITERIA
WILL BE MET LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WCA BUT A HEADLINE WAS PUT IN
THE ZONE FCST. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WINDS SHOULD COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SAT AND HELP TO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE
AFTN BUT NOT TOO FAR ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER SUNDAY...THINGS SHOULD
BECOME MORE NORMAL AS SUBSTANTIAL MELTING WILL BE UNDERWAY. A MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AND ASSIST
IN A LATE DECEMBER WARM UP.
.LONG TERM...(DAYS 5-7)...
LATEST LONG RANGE GFS/MRF DATA CONTINUES WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS
TREND OF MOVING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THRU BY MIDWEEK...AND WE HAVE
THEREFORE FOLLOWED THROUGH ON THIS RUN-RUN SIGNAL AND INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. WE ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME BUYING THE TREMENDOUS WARMUP GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL AND HAVE THEREFORE RETAINED THE GOING FORECAST TREND OF
STAYING A LITTLE BELOW NEW MEX MOS SUGGESTIONS...BUT STILL WARMING
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
DB

FXUS63 KPAH 240830
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER OVER THE REGION...AND HOW LONG IT
PERSISTS...WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES. MOS
GUIDANCE IS NEARLY USELESS IN THIS SITUATION IN MID WINTER. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP FORECAST TEMPS BELOW ALL MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH AT
LEAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT. GFS/ETA/NGM MOS HAVE ALL VERIFIED TOO WARM
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NGM MOS. FORECAST TEMPS
WILL TREND CLOSER TO GFS MOS OVER TIME...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPS /RECORD FOR CHRISTMAS IS MINUS 5 AT PAH/. SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON CHRISTMAS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY
FROM THE FRIGID START. HOWEVER...THE WIND WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS DOWN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MUCH OF THE DAY.  WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PERIODS OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON.
AFTER CHRISTMAS...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS IS A TREND TOWARD
A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH ETA/GFS INDICATE THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE ETA SHOWS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THAN THE GFS. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. NO
WEATHER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT AS A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES.
AFTER THIS BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLOWLY DURING NEXT WEEK. NEW GFS MOS IS
COOLER THAN RECENT GUIDANCE. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A FLATTER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAN SHOWN
YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SIGNS THAT A MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S.
RIDGE/WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
ITS TIMING HAS BEEN SLOWED. THEREFORE...WILL PUSH BACK PRECIPITATION
CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AND SLOW THE WARMING TREND A LITTLE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
MY

FXUS63 KPAH 242039
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THEIR IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.
WITH COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. THE EXISTING SNOW
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
USING BOTH THE ETA AND GFS...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW...WE
BELIEVE THAT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR CALM FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON CHRISTMAS MORNING. WIND
CHILL VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY DROP UNDER 10
BELOW FOR A BRIEF 2 OR 3 HOUR PERIOD CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT DUE TO
THE SHORT EXTENT AND ANTICIPATED ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE...A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY SEEMS UNWARRANTED AT THIS POINT. INSTEAD...WE MAY
CHOOSE TO HEADLINE THIS IN THE ZONE FORECAST.
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
THIS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER IS REMAINING...
AND WHERE...EACH DAY. OF THE THREE MOS GUIDANCE SETS...THE ETA AND
GFS GUIDANCE LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN THE NGM NUMBERS...BUT STILL NOT
COLD ENOUGH. THUS...WE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEVISE OUR OWN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...COUPLING TODAY/S OBSERVATIONS WITH THE
ANTICIPATED GRADUAL WARM-UP.
.LONG TERM...
AFTER A STRONG...BUT BRIEF SHOT OF WINTER...MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  MAIN CONCERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS WHEN/IF TO INTRODUCE POPS AND HOW QUICKLY TO WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TREND IN THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS IS TO DAMPEN OUT ANY ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  WITHOUT ANY MAJOR
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO FOCUS POPS...LOW-LEVEL WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORCE FOR POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS THE DEVELOPING RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TIMING THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.  WILL INSERT A 20 POP AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN GO WITH 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION.  READINGS WILL START OUT NEAR OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WILL END UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE.  THE LINGERING SNOW PACK MAY AFFECT THE ONSET OF THE
WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK.  BUT REGARDLESS...THE MILD
CONDITIONS FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK...SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
RJP/DRS

FXUS63 KPAH 250422
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004
.UPDATE...
ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE
ADJACENT COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND ALL OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN TIP COUNTIES FROM 3 AM TO 9AM SATURDAY
MORNING.
THE SNOW PACK IS PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT BLANKET AFFECT FOR OUTGOING
TERRESTRIAL RADIATION THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RAPID LOSS OF
SHORTWAVE SOLAR RADIATION AT DUSK...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TAKING A
NOSE DIVE AT THOSE REPORTING SITES UNDER THE DEEPEST SNOW DEPTH.
ASOS AND AWOS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN WAVERING +\- 3 DEGREES DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS PUSHING WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
A WEAK AGEOSTROPHIC WIND RESPONSE TO THE MINOR...BUT SHARP TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING WILL HELP RAISE SOUTHEAST
WINDS NEAR THE 4-7 MPH RANGE LATE TONIGHT. SINCE THESE WINDS WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE SNOWPACK...THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
ADVISORY RANGE.
IN ADDITION...TONIGHTS LOW WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK CURRENT LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS.
DIGITAL AND TEXT FORECASTS...AS WELL HAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
/9Z/ TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING /15Z/.
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A FEW MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES MAY BRING
BRIEF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...BUT THEIR IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.
WITH COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE STRUGGLED INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. THE EXISTING SNOW
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
USING BOTH THE ETA AND GFS...THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH OF
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH...
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW...WE
BELIEVE THAT WINDS AT GROUND LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR CALM FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON CHRISTMAS MORNING. WIND
CHILL VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY DROP UNDER 10
BELOW FOR A BRIEF 2 OR 3 HOUR PERIOD CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT DUE TO
THE SHORT EXTENT AND ANTICIPATED ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE...A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY SEEMS UNWARRANTED AT THIS POINT. INSTEAD...WE MAY
CHOOSE TO HEADLINE THIS IN THE ZONE FORECAST.
A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT
THIS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER IS REMAINING...
AND WHERE...EACH DAY. OF THE THREE MOS GUIDANCE SETS...THE ETA AND
GFS GUIDANCE LOOK MUCH BETTER THAN THE NGM NUMBERS...BUT STILL NOT
COLD ENOUGH. THUS...WE WILL PRETTY MUCH DEVISE OUR OWN TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...COUPLING TODAY/S OBSERVATIONS WITH THE
ANTICIPATED GRADUAL WARM-UP.
.LONG TERM...
AFTER A STRONG...BUT BRIEF SHOT OF WINTER...MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  MAIN CONCERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IS WHEN/IF TO INTRODUCE POPS AND HOW QUICKLY TO WARM
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TREND IN THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS IS TO DAMPEN OUT ANY ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  WITHOUT ANY MAJOR
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO FOCUS POPS...LOW-LEVEL WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORCE FOR POPS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS THE DEVELOPING RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST...HOWEVER...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TIMING THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC.  WILL INSERT A 20 POP AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN GO WITH 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK...AS
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION.  READINGS WILL START OUT NEAR OR A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WILL END UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S
AREAWIDE.  THE LINGERING SNOW PACK MAY AFFECT THE ONSET OF THE
WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE WEEK.  BUT REGARDLESS...THE MILD
CONDITIONS FORECAST LATER IN THE WEEK...SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY MORNING
FOR UNION...HENDERSON AND DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
MO...NONE.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXCEPT
ALEXANDER...PULASKI AND MASSAC COUNTIES...FROM 3 AM CST TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY MORNING.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST/4AM EST TO 9 AM CST/10 AM EST
SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
&&
$$
RJP/DRS/SMITH

FXUS63 KPAH 251001
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.DISCUSSION
TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BRUTALLY COLD THIS XMAS MORNING WITH DEEP SNOW/ICE PACK IN PLACE AND
REMNANTS OF ARCTIC HIGH OVER OHIO. TEMPS RUNNING -8 TO -12 OVER MUCH
OF SNOW PACK. FOG BANKS HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED ALONG RIVERS AND
LAKES THAT HAVE NOT FROZEN OVER. CAIRO IL DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT
09Z...SO WILL ISSUE SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO ALERT DRIVERS OF FOG
DEPOSITING ICE ON SOME BRIDGES NEAR THE RIVERS AND LBL AREA. WILL
ALSO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING (THROUGH 15Z) OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RIGHT OFF THE BAT...WILL THROW OUT THE FWC MOS TEMPS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. WAY TOO WARM...ESP ON HIGHS. WILL EVEN GO BELOW THE
COLDER MET MOS TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WHERE THE SNOW PACK WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...WHICH IS MOST AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. IN FACT... GFS/ETA NOW BRING THE NOSE OF ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. NEW MAV MOS NOW COOLER ON
MONDAY THAN ON SUNDAY MANY LOCATIONS. THUS...SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP WILL
NEED TO BE DELAYED...AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS. 00Z MEX MAX TEMPS
FOR TUE LOOK RIDICULOUSLY WARM FOR HIGHS TUE. MODELS TYPICALLY WARM
THING TOO RAPIDLY ON BACK SIDE OF ARCTIC AIR...ESP WITH DEEP SNOW
FIELD IN PLACE. WILL NOT SEE 45 TO 50 UNTIL THE SNOW IS MOSTLY
GONE...AND THAT WILL NOT BE TUE.
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
QUAD STATE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. GFS NOW HINTS AT DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WRING OUT SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN THE COLD AIR EAST
OF A MDH TO PAH LINE TONIGHT. WILL INTRO THIS INTO THE FORECAST BUT
SHOULD NOT BE A MEASURABLE EVENT. WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE PRECIP
WISE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PRODUCING VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. IF THIS ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS...AS PER GFS PROGS...SFC TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING. EVEN IF AIR TEMP IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...GROUND MAY
STILL BE FROZEN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. NOT AN
UNCOMMON EVENT IN WARM ADVECTION AREA ON BACK SIDE OF ARCTIC
HIGHS.WILL PASS THOUGHTS TO DAY SHIFT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
UNION...HENDERSON AND DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY.
MO...NONE.
IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EXCEPT
ALEXANDER...PULASKI AND MASSAC COUNTIES...TILL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM TIL 9 AM CST/10 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
&&
$$
MEFFERT

FXUS63 KPAH 252052
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE TEMPERATURES...AND SNOW WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM TONIGHT.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TONIGHT.  THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE
TONIGHT...BUT DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE ETA KEEPS THE CLOUD
COVER AND QPF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE TYPICALLY MORE GENEROUS GFS.
WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HITTING IT PRETTY HARD...DECIDED TO GO
WITH THE GFS-BASED MAV SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EVV AREA AND MENTION
LIGHT SNOW ONLY...WITH NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE COLD...BUT RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO RECENT
NIGHTS...WITH A RANGE OF 10 TO 15...WHICH IS STILL BELOW GUIDANCE.
FOR TOMORROW THE MODELS AGREE IN ALLOWING A WEAK SECONDARY SURGE OF
SURFACE HIGH TO WORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.  LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS IN THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT
IMPACT THE AREA MUCH TOMORROW.  IT MAY BRING AN EARLY END TO WARMING
TOMORROW IN THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH MANY AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TOO WARM FOR SUNDAY HIGHS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE
GETTING STARTED JUST OFF THE SURFACE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
PLUMMET TOO FAR.  DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS AGAIN...BUT THE WARMING
TREND FOR LOWS WILL CONTINUE.  THE ETA IS HINTING STRONGLY AT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO FORECAST IT AT THIS TIME.
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT IT WILL MANAGE
ONLY TO OFFSET THE BRIEF COOLING THAT OCCURRED LATE SUNDAY.
THEREFORE LOOK FOR HIGHS STRADDLING THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN
MONDAY...WHICH IS WELL BELOW MOST GUIDANCE.  THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE CORE OF DEVELOPING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP NORTH OF THE QUAD STATE. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WHICH SHOULD SPELL
DOOM FOR THE SNOWPACK...AS FAR AS ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM...
ON TUE NITE...LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. GFS/DGEX HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
PCPN OCCURRING BUT CURRENT MEX GUIDANCE HAS RATHER LOW POPS FOR IT.
MODEL INDICIES ARE INDICATING A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS A
NEGATING FACTOR. WHETHER OR NOT PCPN HAPPENS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
SOUNDINGS BELOW 850MB WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING. ATTM...HAVE DECIDED TO
NOT MENTION IT IN THE ZONES. 500MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE FCST AREA
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK JUST AHEAD OF A S/WV TROF ROCKETING OUT
OF THE SWRN CONUS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO WARM TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE
50S. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THU THROUGH SAT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOTS OF SRLY RETURN FLOW WILL
CREATE A CHC OF RAIN. LOOK FOR ANOTHER DIGGING S/WV TO PROVIDED MORE
MOISTURE/LIFT BEYOND DAY7. THE AFORMENTIONED SCENARIO IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.
TEMPWISE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS REALLY WANTS TO WARM THINGS UP LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CHOSE TO COMBINE THE FIGURES GIVEN BY THE
GFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE CURRENT FCST.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
DRS/DB