MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0428 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
   INTO WESTERN MO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 302228Z - 010300Z
   
   HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR...WILL CONTINUE/DEVELOP
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN OK/SOUTHEAST KS...AND BRIEFLY
   INTO CENTRAL OK...THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
   CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MO BY
   02Z...WITH SNOW BECOMING HEAVY THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SURGING
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ASSOCIATED
   WITH CLOSED CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER.
   IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
   COUPLED WITH 15Z SREF AND LATEST RUC/4KM WRF-NMM DETERMINISTIC
   GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MOST PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW THROUGH EARLY/MID
   EVENING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK...INCLUDING AREAS
   FROM THE KS TURNPIKE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PONCA CITY/TULSA AREAS. AS
   SEEN THIS AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST KS/...MID LEVEL
   FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COUPLED WITH NEGATIVE EPV/SLANTWISE
   INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
   SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS CAPABLE OF RATES
   TO 2 IN/HR. ACROSS CENTRAL OK...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
   DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
   THIS EVENING...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD
   EASTWARD INTO THE OKC METRO AREA BY 00Z. IN ADDITION...STRONG
   NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SEEN IN THE LOWEST FEW KM OF REGIONAL
   PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWPS WILL PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
   DRIFTING SNOW.
   
   FARTHER EAST...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM RUC SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW
   ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MO BY 02Z...INCLUDING THE
   JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD/SEDALIA/CLINTON AREAS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 11/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
   39069439 38879280 37739273 36789299 36519336 35949488
   35499658 35069745 35379804 36379852 37119805 37829723
   38429626