MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2612
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN NJ...ERN AND COASTAL
   NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...RI
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET 
   
   VALID 141723Z - 142145Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR HEADER/TEXT TYPOS
   
   PARALLEL AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET SHOULD
   SPREAD NEWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.  SNOW
   SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN NEAR COAST FROM SRN/ERN LONG ISLAND TO CAPE
   COD...WITH SLEET JUST N OF NWD-DRIFTING FREEZING LINE OVER PORTIONS
   SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.  HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES NEAR 2
   INCHES/HOUR...LOCALLY HIGHER -- EXPECTED FARTHER N AND NW.
   
   LOW ANALYZED AT 16Z INVOF COASTAL NC/VA BORDER IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD
   THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWING ISALLOBARIC FALL AXIS AND WEAK/CO-LOCATED
   SFC TROUGH ANALYZED OVER COASTAL DELMARVA/SRN NJ.  AS DEEPENING
   CYCLONE APPROACHES THERE WILL BE PRONOUNCED INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL
   FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ABOVE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. RAPID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FORCING APPEARS WELL PROGGED BY
   RUC ASCENT FCST IN 285-288 K ISENTROPIC LAYER. ASSOCIATED WARMING
   ALONG COAST FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD MAY
   1. LIFT FREEZING LINE NWWD INTO PORTIONS LONG ISLAND...SRN RI AND
   SERN MA NEAR A LGA-PYM LINE BY 21Z...CAUSING SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN
   E OF THAT LINE.
   2. WARM 700-900 MB LAYER ENOUGH -- JUST N OF SFC FREEZING LINE -- TO
   MELT SNOW GENERATED AT HIGHER LEVELS.  THAT PRECIP THEN WOULD FREEZE
   AGAIN JUST ABOVE SFC TO FORM SLEET AS SUGGESTED BY THERMODYNAMIC
   STRATIFICATION OF MODIFIED OKX RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS. ATTM EXPECT
   RESULTING SLOW-SLEET TRANSITION AS FAR INLAND AS NEAR POU-ORH-BOS
   LINE.  
   
   STILL FARTHER INLAND...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH 2-3
   INCH/HOUR RATES BECOMING COMMON FROM ALB-UCA CORRIDOR ENEWD AND NEWD
   WITH TIME...ACROSS ADIRONDACKS AND NRN MA...NRN HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN/NRN
   CT RIVER VALLEYS...AND ADJOINING WHITE/GREEN MTNS OF VT/NH.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 12/14/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   40687403 41237280 41937098 42067006 41506987 41117023
   40567344 40597399 
   
   44607390 44407244 44097149 43317111 42697081 42407101
   42427226 42407358 41887476 42367539 43187533 44187500