MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2614
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NEW YORK...VT/NH AND MUCH OF WRN/NRN ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 142356Z - 150600Z
   
   VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HOURLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE
   ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT A 50-100 MILE WIDE BAND FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
   OF NY NEWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL VT/NRN NH/NWRN ME OVER THE NEXT 3-6
   HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF
   SERN NY/SRN VT/SRN NH DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
   ADDITIONALLY...THE ONSET OF HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE
   ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND INTO CENTRAL ME OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 1 INCH FOR A SEVERAL
   HOUR PERIOD.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED MID LEVEL VERTICAL
   MOTION HAS INCREASED OVER CENTRAL NY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING VORTICITY
   CENTER OVER NRN PA. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION IN THE 600-500 MB
   LAYER...OWING IN PART TO FRONTOGENESIS AND COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST
   FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH PROFILE...WILL OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS
   FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY NEWD INTO THE CHAMPAIGN RIVER VALLEY OF NERN
   NY/NRN/CENTRAL VT...AND INTO NRN NH. HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES
   AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION BEGINNING IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
   ALLOWS FOR INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES/HIGHER PRECIPITATION
   EFFICIENCY. ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DRY SLOTS HAVE DEVELOPED
   OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS NJ INTO SERN NY AND OVER CENTRAL
   PA...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
   OF SERN NY...SRN VT/NH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A SECONDARY VORT
   CENTER OVER MD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW...SHOULD
   PROVIDE FOR INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THIS AREA LATER THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...THE ONSET OF HEAVY SNOW COINCIDENT WITH A REGION OF
   STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER ERN NH/NERN VT WILL PUSH ACROSS
   WRN ME DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
   MITIGATE THE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL BAND OF HEAVY
   SNOW...A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF AROUND 1 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES ARE
   STILL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH SNOW- LIQUID WATER
   EQUIVALENT RATIOS WITH SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 12/14/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   44987400 43947608 42327569 42377390 43907014 45106968