MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2617
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 150520Z - 151115Z
   
   EXTREME DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO FAVORABLE MID
   LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ZONE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH WILL
   CONTINUE TO PRODUCE COPIOUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN
   NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES FROM THE NRN
   ADIRONDACKS ACROSS THE NRN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS EWD ACROSS MUCH
   OF MAINE WILL BE AROUND 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH POCKETS OF MORE
   THAT 2 INCHES AN HOUR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN NH INTO MAINE.
   PARTS OF ERN/NERN VT MAY SEE SOMEWHAT LOWER SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO
   MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SNOW SHADOW EFFECT FROM THE WHITE
   MOUNTAINS.
   
   997MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDY HOOK NJ AT 15/05Z AND WILL
   TRACK TO NEAR CAPE COD THROUGH 15/12Z WHILE DEEPENING AT 1-3MB PER
   HOUR. 18Z RUN OF THE ETA WAS VERY ACCURATE WITH SHORT-TERM QPF
   AMOUNTS ACROSS NERN NY SHOWING 0.20-0.30 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. IT APPEARS THESE QPF RATES...AMOUNTING TO
   2-3 INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR...WILL VERIFY QUITE WELL BASED ON SLK
   OBS AND RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 3-6
   HOURS...LATEST ETA AND NCEP ENSEMBLE FCSTS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF
   STRONGEST 600-500MB FRONTOGENESIS... CORRESPONDING TO THE BAND OF
   HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL SHIFT FROM NERN NY ACROSS SRN QUEBEC AND INTO
   MAINE AND NRN NH. MEANWHILE...AS MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN NY
   RESULTS IN A CLOSED LOW FORMING AROUND 700MB...WRAPAROUND ASCENT
   WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD SHOULD KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING
   ACROSS THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
   FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
   
   AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH
   THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL LIKELY
   INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 12/15/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...
   
   44956748 44117035 43597122 44477168 44417218 43647258
   43537314 43947354 43787505 44447503 44787447 45307342
   45957176 46597028 46736916 46836744